Keenan Allen Is In A Fight For His Fantasy Life In 2024
Keenan Allen played 13 games in 2023 with his final injury of three. When he was on pace to set career highs for targets, yards, and touchdowns, he set his career high in receptions despite playing just 13 games. Allen was the focal point of the Los Angeles Chargers offense last year, with Mike Williams suffering a season-ending injury in Week 2. Heading into 2024, Allen will not sport the powder blue for the first time in his career after being traded to the Chicago Bears for a 4th round pick in this year's draft.
Allen will arguably join the best Wide Receiver core in his career, with DJ Moore already on the roster and rookie Rome Odunze joining the team. Odunze was drafted with the 9th overall pick in the draft and is one of the most well-rounded prospects to enter the league in recent years. Both of these Wide Receivers will force a negative impact on Keenan Allen's typical target share. Allen has seen an average of at least 9 targets per game in 4 of his last 5 seasons.
He had 32.1% of the Charger targets in 2023. In every season since 2018, Allen has run more than 50% of his routes out of the slot. With DJ Moore and Rome Odunze profiling as the more prototypical outside Wide Receiver, Allen is at risk of losing routes to his teammates, especially in the latter half of the season when Odunze starts adjusting to the NFL. However, Odunze is not the only rookie bound to affect Allen's production. As good of a prospect as incoming rookie Quarterback Caleb Williams is projected to be, rookie Quarterbacks typically hurt Wide Receivers.
In a study done by Rotoballers, only 6 of 39 groups supported a top 12 WR in their rookie year between 2005 and 2021. Just 13 of 39 supported a top 24 WR in the same time frame. Between the competition in the Wide Receiver room and a rookie Quarterback at the helm, Allen would need to be very efficient with his targets to land in the top 15 Wide Receivers this year.
A mark that he's only missed the past 7 seasons due to a hamstring injury costing him 7 games in 2022. Allen has been very consistent over the years thanks to his exceptional route running and fortunate pairings at Quarterback. His consistency and overall production will likely drop, and his ADP reflects that. Allen's current ADP is 6.02, and WR31 is off the board. Fantasy managers do not inherit significant risk at his ADP. Still, between competition for targets, a rookie Quarterback, and the risk of reinjury at age 32, Allen is not as safe a draft pick as he once was.
Our consensus projections for Allen in the 2024 season would be: 88 receptions, 1027 yards, 7 touchdowns through the air and 0 carries for 0 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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