Kyle Larson's 2024 Season Is Even Better Than It Looks
In 2021, Kyle Larson dominated the NASCAR Cup Series circuit with 10 wins and 2581 laps led en route to winning the championship. It was one of the greatest seasons any driver has put together in NASCAR's modern era, a season that one would think won't be replicated again for a long time.
A case can be made that Larson's campaign in 2024 has been even more impressive. With three races remaining in the season, he's only scored six wins and has led 1614 laps, so he is not going to match either of his 2021 totals in those categories. When taking a deeper look, though, Larson's performance is right on pace with his 2021 standard, if not above it.
In any sport, stats are nothing without context in regards to how they stack up against their competition. An NFL quarterback throwing for 4,000 yards used to be a notable achievement, but now it's expected. Averaging 30 points per game used to only be done in the NBA by one or two players in a season, but the past few years have seen several stars do it. Alex Ovechkin's chase of Wayne Gretzky's all-time NHL goals record is notable not just due to the volume but also because scoring numbers were higher on average during Gretzky's era.
NASCAR is different, given that each season has only a certain number of races to be won and laps to be led, and those numbers have remained fairly constant for decades. There was, though, a notable change after the 2021 season in that NASCAR introduced the NextGen car, which has condensed the field closer together in speed. It has significantly nerfed any one driver's dominance—until Larson this season.
In 2021, when Larson led 2,581 laps, the next-closest driver was Denny Hamlin, with 1,502 (58.19% of Larson's total). This season, the next-closest driver to Larson's mark of 1,614 is Christopher Bell at 999 (61.9% of Larson). That 2021 number is still a wider gap percentage-wise, but there was another factor in play there too. Most race weekends in 2021 featured no qualifying due to restrictions from COVID-19, with starting lineups being set largely by points. That meant Larson was guaranteed to start near the front virtually every week.
In general, Larson has faced significantly more adversity this season than he did in 2021. That can be proven by the fact that his Pass Differential for the season sits at +412, compared to +389 in 2021. Also, because the field is more condensed with the NextGen car, it is harder to make passes. In 2021, Larson did not even lead the field in Pass Differential -- Chase Elliott did, at +398. The closest driver to him this season is Brad Keselowski at +342, while no one else is above +200.
Despite the rough luck that has plagued him at times this year, Larson also leads the Cup Series field in Average Running Position at 11.6, while Elliott is second at 12.5. Using this author's advanced metric of Expected Average Running Position, which considers such luck, Larson climbs to 9.5, more than two full positions better than Elliott at 11.9. In 2021? Larson was second to Hamlin in both ARP and xARP.
That leads to Larson's True Driver Rating, the gold standard of this author's metrics, which is analyzed in detail in each week's statistical recap. Below are the full metric sheets for both 2021 (top) and 2024 (bottom), and this is where the perspective of Larson's dominance this season is truly eye-opening.
This season, Larson's average TDR score is 172.97, significantly below his 2021 score of 200.2. Compared to the rest of the field, though, it's a different story. Bell currently sits second, at 139.93 -- a score which would have placed him in ninth in 2021. Using the same equation as the laps led comparison above, Larson's 2021 score was 111.82% of that of second-place Hamlin. His score this year is 123.61% of Bell's.
Additionally, it can be seen that most 2021 races were much fairer than 2024 races. The number at the top-left of the above graphics represents that season's average Fairness Rating, in which 2021 scored a .7497 while 2024 has averaged a .6513. The degree of randomness this season has been off the charts, and yet Larson is still in a league of his own.
In summary, Larson's 2021 season -- while undoubtedly historic -- was also a season in which just about everything that could go right for him went right. He got to just drive off from the field on a regular basis, facing minimal adversity, all while several other drivers were putting up dominant numbers of their own. Nobody has been able to even come close to his level of performance this season, despite the field being more closely packed together and the races being more chaotic.
Kyle Larson is having yet another season for the ages, and in a few weeks, he should have the opportunity to close it out with his second Cup Series championship.
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