Lamb's 6 Leg +18726 Anytime TD Scorer Parlay For Week 2
The first installment of Lamb's 6 Legger didn't hit, but that doesn't mean it wasn't profitable; for the people who tailed, we went 5/6 (Diggs, Achane, BTJ, Worthy, Christian Watson are heroes) and had the opportunity to cash out for $600-800. I tried to holdfast and brave the storm for Zamir White to finish the job so I could cash the $5/$2096 parlay in its full glory. But once the cash-out option dropped to 250, I had to make a profit off of that ticket.
Zamir and company are now on the faderaid (yes, I know that word is made up, but all words are); I was pretty disappointed, but I can't be too upset when I made money. It's time to return to the horse and assemble Lamb's 6 Legger for Week 2, which is $5/$936. This is not purely stats-based as last week, but the Week 1 data will help. DISCLAIMER: Kenneth Walker has yet to practice this week and may be voided from the slip.
Leg 1: Keon Coleman WR, +240 (TNF 8:20)
Last week, we bet on a rookie in his first performance in the NFL, and Xaiver Worthy came through for us almost immediately. This time, we are baking another rookie on a high-scoring offense. Keon Coleman played on 73% of the snaps, ran 90% of the routes, and had a 22% target share in his first start of his career.
The Dolphins' secondary doesn't scare me in this match. Josh Allen has habitually dominated this defense, and his new pass-catching core brings completely different wrinkles.
Josh Allen clearly trusts the rookie, and he has the best RedZone skillset in the receiving core. Coleman caught a deep pass on the sideline in Week 1, showing he can make a big play. He will be on the field most of the game, and the Bills will score. This price makes sense.
Leg 2: Kenneth Walker RB, +145
Kenneth Walker took over the game against Denver with 20 carries, 103 yards, and a touchdown. The Patriots' defense played as well as they possibly could, and they still let up a rushing touchdown. Walker is the RedZone back (159 touches in his career) for this team, and they clearly still want to run the ball and control the line of scrimmage.
More of a downhill scheme can exploit the Patriots' defensive line. The Bengals' only successful drive was when they went to it, and Zach Moss (career plotter) plotted it into the endzone. Walker is a much more explosive back, and at +145, the only thing stopping this from cashing this leg is his abdomen injury; if he does miss the game, the leg will just be voided.
Leg 3: Mike Evans WR, +105
There isn't much I need to say to back up this leg of the parlay. It's a big game, and it's Mike Evans. Baker Mayfield and Evans have an elite connection, but Detriot's secondary is young and lacks a guy to match up with his height and speed.
By now, everyone knows who this guy is and what he does, and at + money, it's an easy leg to throw on the ticket. A lesser-known fact is that Evans has 20 catches for 300 yards and four touchdowns in his four games against Detroit.
Leg 4: Deebo Samuel WR, +100
When one of the 49ers' players is out of the game, Deebo Samuel picks up more of the workload. When CMC is out, he acts as the change of pace back and gets RedZone work. Deebo's playstyle leads to broken tackles and extra yards, which is exactly what pays dividends when trying to score.
Samuel had 9 targets and 8 attempts in his most recent game with CMC sidelined. If he misses this game against the Vikings, there is a good chance he could see a similar workload. When Deebo Samuel has 17 opportunities, he gets into the endzone. Stephon Gilmore will likely cover Brandon Ayiuk, leaving the rest of this below-average secondary to feast on. At +100 in this circumstance is a solid price.
Leg 5: Brian Robinson Jr RB, +125
Brian Robinson Jr might be one of the toughest SoBs in the sports world, having a stellar rookie campaign last year after being shot. He's fully healthy on a team with a rookie quarterback and will get opportunities. Last week, he played against a stout Tampa Bay Bucs team and averaged 5.2 yards per touch.
This week, he plays the Giants, who might be the worst team in the NFL. Dan Quinn said it is not ideal to have Daniels carrying the ball 16+ times a game; they will still want to run it. He is also the goal-line back, and I expect the Commanders to be in full control of this game. The script for this game describes BROB as a major character, and at +125, it's too good to pass up.
Leg 6: Rashee Rice WR, +145
Rashee Rice has been an integral part of this Chiefs offense since he got drafted by the team last year. He had over 100 targets as a rookie in an Andy Reid offense that he got integrated later in the season. This year, he started off strong with 9 targets and over 100 yards. He and Mahomes have a connection, and this offense will be near the top of the scoring charts.
The Bengals are going to try to contain Kelce and protect Worthy's deep routes, which makes Rice the forgotten weapon that Mahomes will target due to the mismatches created by this offense's sheer depth. The Bengals' defense has regressed since their Super Bowl run. I'm not saying they are bad, but it's not a match-up that scares me away from a +145 price tag on a top option in an elite offense.
End Of Parlay Rant
Last week was a great start to this weekly article. Anyone who tailed and cashed out made some money; if you tailed and didn't cash out, I hope you didn't lose much. However, I remember something my dad always says: "If you don't play, you can't win". So, I hope you like my picks for this week's edition of Lamb's 6 Legger.
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