Lamb's 6 Leg +23730 Anytime TD Scorer Parlay For Week 3
Last week was brutal for most bettors. I and anyone who tailed were no different; we went 1/6, bringing my total for the year to 6/12, still with a $200-$750 profit depending on the Week 1 cash out.
As always, I will place $5 on this parlay to pay $1186. As the bet progresses, please be aware of your cash-out options. Lines are subject to change depending on when you read this article.
Leg 1: Jalen Hurts QB, +110
Through the 64 games he has played, Jalen Hurts has had 41 rushing touchdowns, meaning he has hit this prop 64% of the time on the field. The Saints have always been a respectable defense, but they aren't scaring me away from this line at plus money.
Jalen already had nine RedZone carries, which leads all quarterbacks. This offense isn't as explosive without AJ Brown, but it can still be effective and get into RedZone and goalline situations. At +110, this is just an excellent value for a pretty consistent player.
Leg 2: Malik Nabers WR +240
Having the sixth overall pick coming off a 10-catch, 18-target, 127-yard game with a touchdown valued at +240 is borderline robbery. We all understand that Daniel Jones is not worth the contract he signed, but he can still pepper a player with targets. Through two games, Nabers has a 39.1% target share (first in the league), 57.9% air yards share (second in the league), and 109 yards after the catch (third most for receivers).
The Browns are in the middle of the pack when defending WRs. The only scary thing is the pass rush, but I expect the targets to keep coming. A player's chance to score can only increase with opportunities, and Nabers currently has the most of those in the NFL. This line should be closer to +150, so I'm happy to bet on another rookie to score.
Leg 3 Chris Godwin WR +145
Chris Godwin is back in the slot around 55% of the time to start this season, which is about a 20% increase from last year when Godwin had 86/1333/9. In 2019, he was primarily in the slot. We've seen the connection he and Baker share, and Mike Evans will almost always take the best DB and the most attention from the defensive coordinator.
This week, it's the Broncos, and Pat Surtain will definitely be covering Evans for a majority of the game; outside of PS2, Dever's secondary is a mess. The Bucs keep scheming him up with mismatches, and Godwin is making people pay. At +145 for one of the hottest players in the league in a plus match-up seems like a slam dunk.
Leg 4: Brock Bowers TE +320
Brock Bowers's selection by the Raiders was a big surprise in April, but the way he is being moved around the formation has made this offense dynamic even without an above-average quarterback. Bowers has 17 targets, 15 receptions, and 156 yards in his first two starts.
During the comeback against Baltimore, Brock caught a pass over the middle in the RedZone, broke multiple tackles, and eventually was brought down on the 1-yard line. The Raiders play the Panthers this week, who have given up the second most fantasy points to TE's and 73 points in their first two games.
Bowers and Minshew are connected because Brock is running a similar route to what Michael Pittman did last season with Gardner. I think the coaching staff will go out of their way to set him up for a play in the endzone since he got so close last week, which could really further his hot start to his career.
Leg 5 James Conner RB -120
Since Jonathan Gannon has been head coach, James Connor has averaged 18.4 touches per game and has scored in 60% of these games. Conner already has 9 carries inside the 20-yard line. This offense is stacked with MHJ, Trey McBride, a fully healthy Kyler Murray, and a motivated James Conner.
The Lions have a good rushing defense, but they can be thrown on, and the Cardnials have a top 5 EPA per play rating to start the season; I feel comfortable that they will be inside the five and trust their top back (81.7% of the RedZone carries for the Cardnials) to push it over the goal line. Let's not forget that Conner is a capable receiver out of the backfield in case Arizona wants to get sneaky.
Leg 6: Derrick Henry RB, -130
King Henry hasn't exploded yet from a yardage standpoint, but he has scored two touchdowns already, one in each game played. Henry has two attempts inside the 5-yard line, both resulting in scores. This Ravens offense is not spectacularly consistent, but they will be inside the five-yard line at some point in this game, and Henry will make it three for three.
He also has a juicy Dallas match-up for anyone bold enough to bet on multi-touchdown games after watching Alvin Kamara rack up four TDs last week. I think asking for one from him in this game at -130 is a fine closing leg for this ticket.
End Of Parlay Rant
I hope you've enjoyed reading the article; I wish everyone luck who decides to tail because I'll be there sweating every second out with you. I am very optimistic about hitting one of these, and it will be a considerable profit. Again, this edition of Lamb's 6 Legger is $5/$1186. Good luck from your friendly neighborhood, Gritty Gambler.
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