Lamb's 6 Leg +41872 Anytime TD Scorer Parlay For Week 1
Well, we are finally here. The NFL season is upon us, and you know what that means. Stadium Rant is here to cook up a 4-6 leg parlay that could pay massive dividends. I will be betting this parlay each weekend for 5 dollars.
This particular parlay is $5 to win $2098.60. I like to gamble but typically take higher odds with less money spent, a big payout, and hope for the best result from a solid process. This process isn't solely based on statistics but is influenced by them. DISCLAIMER: I am not telling anyone what to do. I am sharing one of the parlays I am betting on this weekend.
Leg 1: Xavier Worthy WR +180, (TNF 8:20)
We have to have the season's first matchup on the card for two reasons; the first is that who can wait this long for football not to have some action on the season opener? The second is because Worth landed in the best possible spot to maximize his potential; his speed is a legitimate game-breaker. With Andy Reid's offensive mind and Patrick Mahomes's greatness, it could very well be the most underrated weapon in football. Hollywood Brown is out of the Week 1 matchup, meaning Worthy should have extra playing time.
If we look back to last year, people had similar questions about another Chiefs rookie who was a lesser prospect at the time, Rashee Rice. Rice was one of two rookie WRs to score a touchdown last season, and I think history repeats itself here. The Ravens have a solid secondary, but the only player who can stay stride for stride with Worthy is another first-round rookie, Nate Wiggins. Can we expect that to be Baltimore's game plan? Even if it is, I trust this offensive system to show the world what they have in Xavier Worthy.
Leg 2 Chrisitan Watson WR +210 (Friday 8:20)
Christian Watson had an extensive hype campaign last season, but due to injuries, it never came together for him; in 23 games, he's scored 14 touchdowns and has yet to reach his ceiling. Coming into this season, he is almost the forgotten man due to the performances of Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed, which is why he is on the touchdown ticket because, at +210, the value is there.
The Eagles just lost James Bradberry to injury for 4-6 weeks, which means their two rookie defensive backs are going to have to be on the field early and often. While Mitchell and DeJean have high potential, rookie CBs, in their first start, are susceptible to double moves or play-action. With this potent offense and creative play-caller, I can see Watson sliding behind the secondary for a big play touchdown.
Leg 3 Stefon Diggs WR +190 (Sunday 1 PM)
Stefon Diggs was one of the shiny new toys that the Texans acquired this offseason, and I expect they intend to show him off in Week 1. Diggs has scored a touchdown in the opener in 4 of his 8 seasons as a starter. Many people have decided Diggs is no longer an elite receiver, but those people should rethink their stance because he seems highly motivated by this. Here are some of his comments about his dip in production last year and his HOF status from a recent interview with GQSports (@gqsports)
"I didn't forget how to F--kin play football"... "I pay real close attention, this shit is not a game to me" -Stefon Diggs
This sounds like a player highly motivated to prove his doubters wrong. The matchup is a soft one as well. Indy doesn't have an elite shutdown cornerback, and the Texans have weapons all over the field. I expect this game to go over the total, so there should be plenty of opportunities to hit this leg of the parlay. At +190, I think this is a slam-dunk storyline with a 50% cash rate to back it up.
Leg 4 De'Von Achane RB +115 (Sunday 1 PM)
De'Von Achane had historic efficiency last year, averaging 7.8 yards per carry, which means he can score from anywhere on the field due to that explosiveness. In his first three games of his career, with more than 5 touches, he had 518 total yards and 7 touchdowns as the change of pace back in this high-flying Miami offense. All the buzz around the Dolphins camp is that Achane should be the central back in that three-headed committee due to his improvement in the passing game and adding some mass to handle a more significant workload.
This matchup with Jacksonville profiles to be a barnburner. Both defenses have regressed over the off-season, so I'm targeting the total. The Jags' defensive game plans will focus on stopping Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, so Mike McDaniel will use the running game to open everything up. Achane might be the most explosive player on the highest-scoring offense in the league.
Leg 5 Brian Thomas Jr WR +260 (Sunday 1 PM)
As mentioned above, I expect this game to go well over the 48.5. The Jags let Calvin Ridley go to Tennessee and drafted BTJ, who fits perfectly for Trevor Lawrence's goal of throwing the ball downfield. Thomas has elite speed and great hands, but due to his rookie status, he should also be an afterthought on the defensive game plan. Miami worries about Etienne, Kirk, and Engram, but BTJ and Lawrence have built chemistry this offseason.
When discussing why Worthy is a good leg in this parlay, I mentioned that two rookie WRs scored a touchdown during Week 1 in 2023. One was Rashee Rice, and the other was Jordan Addison. Both teams have good offensive systems that put their weapons in position to succeed. Miami's defense lost Christian Wilkens and Andrew Van Ginkel. Bradley Chubb and Jalean Phillips have been banged up all offseason, and Jalen Ramsey is a year older. BTJ to score a touchdown at +260 is a screaming value.
Leg 6 Zamir White RB +140 (Sunday 4:05 PM)
The last leg on this ticket is Zamir White, and I think the Raiders will win this game and control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Chargers want to win the trenches under new HC Jim Harbaugh, but their roster building is still a work in progress. LAC's defense is also old and often injured or banged up.
On the Raiders' side, once White took over the lead job in Week 15 last year, he averaged 23 touches for 115 total yards a game. The touchdowns didn't come, only having 1 in those four games, but with that type of workload and his talent level against a weak rushing defense, I am very intrigued by his price point of +140.
End Of Parlay Rant
The NFL is so back, and I will probably make a couple more of these before the games are played on Sunday. Each week, I will pick my favorite parlay, write about it in this format, and share it with as many people as possible. I'm praying that we can have a couple of these hit through the season. I appreciate you checking this out and even more if you ride with what I am playing.
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