Lamb's 6 Leg +42554 Anytime TD Parlay For Week 11
I wanted to start by apologizing for missing a couple of weeks of this article. I have been dealing with a pretty bad case of bronchitis that is finally starting to go away. Now, I feel like me again, which means dialing up another six players to score touchdowns this Sunday.
As always, I wagered $5 on this parlay to win $2132. If you had bet every parlay in this series with me for the season, you would have won over $900 with cashouts. Even though I write this in almost every article, people still ask me how they are doing. It's nice to know some people don't read the intro. Relax. That was a joke; you are supposed to laugh.
Leg 1: George Pickens WR, +130
In the three games since Russell Wilson took over as Quarterback for the Steelers, Pickens has 14 catches for 276 yards and two touchdowns (it really should be four, but double tapping the same foot and a holding call took it away).
Pickens isn't doing much different since he already ranked 3rd in target share, 5th in air yards share, and 8th in yards per route run before Russ turned unlimited. What has changed is that the offense is performing much better overall.
Here are some splits between Russ and Fields: Passing Yards per Game: 245.7 (Wilson), 184.3 (Fields), EPA per Dropback: 0.19, 0.04, and Offensive Yards per Drive: 32.3, 28.8.
Take away the stats and watch the games. Russ and Pickens have that chemistry, and their skill sets match perfectly. Mixing that with the Ravens league's worst secondary means +130 is too low of a price.
Leg 2: Calvin Ridley WR, +270
This offensive pecking order makes much more sense since the Titans traded DeAndre Hopkins; Ridley has dominated target share (32), receptions (20), and yards (307) for the Titans in those three games.
He has only scored two touchdowns during this stretch, both of which came in the toughest matchup in the bunch: the LA Chargers. The Vikings will most likely get after Will Levis and force him to make mistakes on defense and score on offense. Passing volume figures to be high in this type of game, giving Ridley more chances to get in the endzone.
The +270 odds are for the backup RB, who gets 4-5 touches a game, not the guy earning ten targets a game. There's just too much opportunity to turn down this price.
Leg 3: Cedric Tillman WR, +180
Cedric Tillman will be on this ticket if he stays over +120, and Jamies Winston is the quarterback. Pretty much anything else is white noise, but here are some other factors that contribute to Tillman's breakout. He leads the team in first-read target share with over 27% and almost a 34% air-yard share, so he's consistently getting downfield targets, which gives him a better chance to break off a longer touchdown.
Tillman has also had a 44% red zone target share since Week 7, so he is also used to finishing off drives. He has three touchdowns in three weeks, and he is facing a Saints defense that just traded Marshawn Lattimore, so this price is too valuable for anyone to pass up.
Leg 4 Puka Nauca WR, +170
Puka Nacua could be my favorite player in the league. I'm not going to hit you with all of these stats to prove this one; it's a pure combination of opportunity, pricing, and a gut feeling. Puka is such a football guy's football guy.
He never seems to be the fastest, strongest, or most precise, but damn, Nacua is always open. The Rams play the Patriots, who shouldn't scare anyone away; Gonzo will likely cover Cooper Kupp, and Puka will beat any other defensive back. This score also feels like it comes down the stretch to put the nail in my favorite team's coffin. It's Poetic Justice.
Leg 5: Jayden Reed WR, +160
Jayden Reed was underutilized in weeks 6, 7, and 8, and his production suffered. However, before the bye week, he had a solid bounce back in a loss against the Lions. Matt LaFleur is an above-average Head Coach who specializes in the offensive side of the ball.
He's had two weeks to prepare for this Bears matchup. Chicago is spiraling, and this rivalry is about as real as it gets. I expect LaFleur to dial up a knockout punch with their best offensive weapon early in this one.
Reed should be closer to even odds in this matchup. Reed is actually the reason I won in multiple leagues last year, which cliched like $1500, so he's a clutch-time player.
Leg 6: Travis Kelce TE, +155
Travis Kelce has flame-boiled and then baked the Buffalo Bills. He has 34 receptions for 440 yards and four touchdowns in seven games. The Bills have always had issues against the tight end. This year, they have given up four touchdowns to the position, which is middle of the pack.
Kelce's usage has skyrocketed due to the injuries Kansas City has sustained. Given the history in this particular matchup, this feels like a perfect clincher leg for those brave enough not to cash out if we get to the 4 o'clock slate.
End Of My Parlay Rant
It feels damn good to write this article again; it makes me feel like I am gaining back my sense of normalcy from the last couple of weeks. They all feel great when you hit "place bet," but some feel better than others, and this one feels like the ladder. Gamble responsibly, be aware of your cash-out options, and let go cash this ticket.
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