Intriguing NFL Week One Best Bets
After waiting for what felt like an eternity, the NFL is back. The season begins with the reigning Super Bowl Champs, the Kansas City Chiefs, hosting the Baltimore Ravens as a field goal favorite. Green Bay and Philadelphia will meet in Brazil for a game on Friday.
The fun starts Sunday: the Bears welcome in the Titans, starting the Caleb Williams Era in Chicago; the Texans travel to play the Colts as a 2.5-point favorite; and the Rams head to Detroit for a rematch of the wildcard game. With all that being said, let's get into the picks. Odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook.
NFL Week One Top Picks
1. Ravens at Chiefs (-3)
Game Information
Thursday, 7:20 PM CT, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Money line: Chiefs (-152), Ravens (+128)
Total: 46.5
Betting Trends
The under has hit in Baltimore's last five games against AFC West teams.
The under has hit in five of the Chiefs' last five games.
Ravens at Chiefs Prediction
In the season opener, I won't pick a side; instead, I'm looking at this total. I love the under in this matchup, which seems strange, considering this game features two of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. People forgot these teams had the top two scoring defenses in the league last season. Give me the under to start the 2024 NFL betting season.
Best Bet
Ravens/Chiefs U 46.5
2. Packers at Eagles (-3)
Game Information
Friday, 7:15 PM CT, Corinthians Arena, Sao Paulo
Money line: Eagles (-152), Packers (+128)
Total: 48.5
Betting Trends
The under has hit seven times in the past ten international games.
Packers at Eagles Prediction
I picked the under in the Ravens/Chiefs game and am also rolling with the under in this game. Anytime teams have to fly overseas, the offenses typically stumble out of the gate, and I fully expect the same to happen here. The Eagles also hired Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator, one of the most respected defensive minds in the league.
Best Bet
Under 48.5
3. Titans at Bears (-4.5)
Game Information
Sunday, Noon CT, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Money line: Bears (-200), Titans (+168)
Total: 45.5
Betting Trends
The Titans are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight Week 1 games.
The Bears covered the spread in five final seven games last season.
Titans at Bears Prediction
I'm all in on the Caleb Williams era, starting strong in Chicago. The Bears have a plethora of weapons for Caleb Williams, and the defense should be able to get after Will Levis and force him to make mistakes. Give me the Bears and the points.
Best Bet
Bears -4.5
4. Vikings (-1.5) at Giants
Game Information
Sunday, Noon CT, Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Money line: Vikings (-132), Giants (+112)
Total: 41.5
Betting Trends
The Vikings are 4-1 SU in their last five games against the Giants.
Vikings at Giants Prediction
The Vikings and Giants are similar teams, but Kevin O'Connell's coaching advantage over Brian Daboll is the difference. I think Kevin O'Connell will be able to dial up some plays to put Sam Darnold in favorable conditions and target the league's top wide receiver, Justin Jefferson.
Best Bet
Vikings -1.5
5. Panthers at Saints (-3.5)
Game Information
Sunday, Noon CT, Caesar Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Money line: Saints (-196), Panthers (+164)
Total: 41.5
Betting Trends
The under is 7-0 between these two teams in the last seven games.
Panthers at Saints Prediction
This game is going to be ugly and low-scoring. The under went 9-2 in the Panthers' last eleven games and 14-6 in the Saints' previous twenty games. I'll discuss this game more later.
Best Bet
Under 41.5
6. Cowboys at Browns (-2.5)
Game Information
Sunday, 3:25 PM CT, Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
Money line: Browns (-142), Cowboys (+120)
Total: 41.5
Betting Trends
Browns are 6-0 ATS in their last six games at home.
Cowboys at Browns Prediction
While I believe the Cowboys are the better overall team, the Browns are favored for a reason at home. The Browns' defense at home only allowed 3.7 yards per snap and 13 points per game. I'll lay the number with the Browns.
Best Bet
Browns -2.5
7. Commanders at Buccaneers (-3.5)
Game Information
Sunday, 3:25 PM CT, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Money line: Buccaneers (-180), Commanders (+152)
Total: 43.5
Betting Trends
Washington are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
Commanders at Buccaneers Prediction
This game is simple; I believe in Jayden Daniels long-term as a quarterback. However, his first game against a Bucs defense that ranked fifth in scoring defense in 2023 will be challenging. He's going to make rookie mistakes, and for that reason, I'm going to lay the points with the Bucs.
Best Bet
Buccaneers -3.5
Lock of the Week
My lock of the week is the under in the Panthers/Saints game. While the total sits at a low number of 41.5, these teams would've hit this total 23 out of 34 times, good for 67% of the time.
Good luck this week. Hopefully, my analysis can help you be profitable. Remember, gamble responsibly.
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