Parlays And Prop Bets: 2024 NFL Week Five
October Has Arrived, And The Messy Start Has Cleared Out Some Of The Surprises. Teams Are Beginning To Play More To Expectations. That Doesn’t Make Betting On The NFL Any Easier.
The First Weekend In October Is A Messy Week, With Several Games Lacking In Excitement. There Are Still Some Thrills To Be Found If You look Around.
Week five of the 2024 season has arrived for the NFL, and the Sunday schedule does not have many impressive games. The big questions come from some interesting individuals in favorable matchups. Aaron Rodgers is playing a Minnesota defense that hasn’t been great against the pass this season. Cincinnati has been horrible against the run, and they will hit Sunday with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in town. Jordan Love played inconsistently in his first game following an injury last week and will be facing a weak Los Angeles (Rams) defense.
Expect Sam Darnold to lead a steady attack with few turnovers.
New York (Jets) At Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
The Vikings have one of the worst defensive units in the league. Aaron Rodgers is hurting, so adding his stats into a wager comes with a warning. If the injury allows him to play, his career history of toughing things out suggests Rodgers is a good candidate for more than 300 yards in the air and multiple touchdowns.
On the Minnesota side, the scary part comes from Aaron Jones and Justin Jefferson. Those are your team leaders, by wide margins, in the rushing and receiving categories. Neither of them has crossed 100 yards in more than one game this year. I’d be tempted to take both going over 100 this week, but the Jets are one of the best defenses in the league.
Carolina Panthers At Chicago Bears (-4)
I picked Carolina to win in my effort against the spread this week. The problem is the combination of a horrible defense for the Panthers and what seems to be an awaiting explosion from the offense of the Bears.
If you believe Caleb Williams is going to develop into a strong player, and that the Bears have surrounded him with talented pieces, this is a great week to add his stats. Take him for more than 330 passing yards and two touchdowns. (Then, close your eyes as he tosses multiple interceptions.)
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will run over the Bengals this week.
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) At Cincinnati Bengals
On defense, these two teams are in the middle of the pack in 2024. The Ravens are outstanding against the run, and the Bengals are better against the pass. I don’t think either of those ideas will hold much value here.
The best bet is Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. The Bengals are around twenty-fifth in ground yardage surrendered per game. Henry has looked unstoppable. If Cincinnati decides to focus on Henry, Jackson will deliver a big combined day with his numbers passing and rushing.
C. J. Stroud will have a huge afternoon against the Bills.
Buffalo Bills (-1) At Houston Texans
Both of these clubs do a good job defending the passing game. One team will need to be successful in that area to win, as the running games shouldn’t factor much into the results. If you need an individual to focus on in this contest, go with C. J. Stroud.
The over/under on this game is hovering at 47-48. Bills have been over 30 in three games while averaging over 25 points per contest. Houston is significantly lower, but possesses far superior firepower at wide receiver. Use the over from this game.
Indianapolis Colts At Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
Indianapolis comes in with two straight victories. Jacksonville is in shambles.
At 0-4, Jacksonville's season is waiting to be declared over. News coming out of the locker room suggests a rudderless group. They scored 20 points last week against the Texans, and that was the highest total from the Jaguars on the season.
I’m going to advise not paying attention to the obvious. The Jaguars aren’t doing badly rushing the ball this year, and the Colts are awful against the run. Indianapolis is also awful against the pass, but the score should stay low enough that the Jaguars allow Travis Etienne to see his most carries in a game for the season.
Use Etienne from this game. Avoid Trevor Lawrence for now, as the Jaguars look for a much-needed victory and controlling the game over forcing their quarterback play.
Jaylen Waddle is a good bet for a massive game at New England.
Miami Dolphins At New England Patriots (-1)
This game is one to avoid. Injuries have torn apart Miami’s roster, primarily at quarterback. New England appears to be readying for the transition to Drake Maye. That combination provides no comfort in predicting production.
The Patriots are not as strong on defense as conversations suggest. Words like spirited and enthusiastic are being used to describe on that side of the ball. Statistics show New England in the bottom third of the league against the pass and in overall ranking. Tyler Huntley was not good against Tennessee. He's had more time to learn Miami’s offense, and his career suggests that he’s capable of better than what he displayed last week.
Look for a solid day from Huntley, and for either Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle to have a huge game.
Cleveland Browns At Washington Commanders (-3)
There is nothing to suggest Cleveland's offense should be watched for anything this season. The team has not gained 300 yards or more in a single game.
All Jayden Daniels is doing is averaging 250 yards passing along with 50 yards rushing each week, while adding 2 touchdowns. Daniels has 3 touchdown passes and 4 touchdown runs in his four games. Even against a talented Cleveland defense, he should produce results.
Worth noting is Washington’s kicker, Austin Seibert. In three games, he’s 10-10 on field goals and 9-9 on extra points. Give Daniels and Seibert the attention for your action.
Las Vegas Raiders At Denver Broncos (-3)
Denver’s defense is good enough that a Las Vegas club should be in for a long day. This is not a great opponent for them as the Las Vegas players also wait for the biggest offensive weapon on their roster, Davante Adams, to be traded.
Adams is not likely to play in the game. The official reason will be an injury, but his status on the trade market makes it doubtful that he will make a miraculous return in time to hit the field in uniform.
The attractive wager on this game may be the under. It is set at 36 points, however, and not at all attractive as a result. The reality is that Denver is looking like a clear favorite in the game, and they have done nothing to show that they can score.
Brock Purdy is set up to continue a run of strong play against the Cardinals.
Arizona Cardinals At San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
This matchup should provide the most entertaining game on the schedule for Sunday. You should include the performances of Brock Purdy and Jordan Mason in any way you can.
The Cardinals have a middle-of-the-pack defense, allowing good passing and great rushing numbers every week. In his past three games, Purdy is averaging 300 yards in the air, and he’s thrown 5 touchdowns. Mason is getting just shy of 24 touches and 111 yards rushing per game. Both players are likely to improve their averages this week.
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) At Los Angeles (Rams)
Jordan Love will be the story of this game. The Rams are bad against the pass. The Rams are horrible against the run. The Rams are terrible in points allowed.
Love wasn’t impressive last week, completing just 50 percent of his passes. It was also his first game back following an injury that sidelined him in game one. In two games, he has thrown for 649 yards and 6 touchdowns. This is a great opponent for him, and he should have a huge afternoon.
New York (Giants) At Seattle Seahawks (-6)
This game is going to be methodical, with nothing flashy or impressive about it. That is exactly why Geno Smith and D.K. Metcalf are where you should focus.
Smith will have 290 yards passing, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Metcalf will have 6 receptions for 95 yards and 1 touchdown. Those results are just about as expected for them. Use those numbers as you see fit. Seattle will score its other points on a 3-for-4 night of field goal attempts or by running the ball, and win by a score of 24-17.
Dallas Cowboys At Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Pittsburgh is great on defense, delivering top-ten performances against both the run and the pass. The Steelers also aren’t allowing opponents to score.
Over his career, Dak Prescott’s numbers drop on the road. That isn’t surprising, and most of the dips aren’t drastic. Passing completion percentage, for example, goes from 68.2-percent to 65.6-percent. The big difference from Prescott in away games is that his turnovers remain about the same while the touchdown passes come significantly down. This year on the road, Prescott threw for 179 yards against the Browns and 221 yards against the Giants. Stay clear of Prescott in this game.
Pittsburgh lost to Indianapolis last week, but Justin Fields showed signs of delivering decent numbers. He reached 312 yards in the air, and appeared to be given more flexibility in his play. The Colts did jump to an early 14-0 lead in that game, forcing the Steelers to try to rally, so his play may not be because Fields is raising his comfort and overall confidence. The injuries Dallas faces on defense could make this a great week for Fields to shine.
Odds sourced from USA Today
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