Parlays And Prop Bets: 2024 NFL Week Four
Week Four Of The 2024 NFL Season And There Are Some Great Wagers To Be Found. Some Are Obvious Thoughts. Several Are Hidden In Plain Sight.
Is It All Fun And Games Until There’s A Dollar To Be Made? Here Are A Few Thoughts To Consider On Sunday’s Slate Of NFL Games During The Last Sunday In September Of 2024.
A few days ago, my weekly article of NFL picks against the spread was posted. These efforts are the ones where I make my selections, and also have our two Golden Retrievers involved with their own picks. (Check out “Penny In The Lead, Cassie Holding Steady Heading Into NFL Week 4 Picks” at Stadium Rant now.) In that piece, I opened by stating how difficult it can be to look toward wagers on games, specifically pointing at the week of events for the San Francisco 49ers.
This Parlays and Prop Bets series ends up driving directly into the issues of coping with daily injury reports, factors in constant changes such as weather forecasts, and the sports betting industry fluctuating as wagers are made and odds adjust day by day. As an introduction to this piece, I want to share a few items for you to consider:
1 – We’re going to focus on the Sunday lineup of games. In order to put together a solid package of thoughts and have the piece posted in a timely fashion, the best idea is to not spread things out from Thursday evening to Monday night. This is especially true during the 2024 season, where the NFL has already presented a Friday night game and Monday nights with multiple matchups, and has plans for games all over the week before the regular season ends.
2 – The thoughts will include one or two items, or a list of quick hits, for each Sunday contest. Ideas to ponder as you look over options in the world of sports betting. (As always, gamble responsibly and take this advice as offered for entertainment purposes only.)
3 – I am providing game point spreads for each of the matchups. These are the same odds that were used during the preparation of my efforts with Penny and Cassie, and have been sourced from USA Today. You may find these have changed since the initial posting, or are different at another site. Make sure you do your homework, and when possible, take advantage of any differences in a way that best meets your needs.
Time to get started.
New Orleans At Atlanta (-1.5)
This is a rough game to gauge, because all of the numbers on the season are misleading.
Atlanta was supposed to be a threat for the NFC South title with the potential to cause havoc for opponents in the playoffs. They could, and very likely should, be 0-3 on the year instead of 1-2. The offense was supposed to click under Kirk Cousins, but instead the team is averaging 16-points per game. Even Bijan Robinson is an unreliable candidate for stats. The Falcons are better than they’ve performed, but are not showing signs of getting to that level. For now, avoid the Falcons in all areas.
New Orleans played the first two games at an insane pace of scoring. They crashed in week three, putting up 12 against the Eagles. The Saints aren’t as good or as bad as they’ve played, but are very likely to range wildly between the two extremes rather than settle into consistency.
The only piece of this puzzle worth investigating are the kickers. Blake Grupe, kicking for New Orleans, is perfect on the season and will get chances from long range.
Big returns await Ja'Marr Chase in week four, as he gets back to the excitement and fun of the game.
Cincinnati (-4.5) At Carolina
Cincinnati is going to score points. They are going to score a lot of points. If you think Carolina is going to go big, take chances, and try to keep pace, the over for this game is intriguing.
Ja’Marr Chase coverage in recent days has him saying that all of the offseason contract drama is over, and that he’s ready to enjoy playing football again. That’s bad news for Carolina. Look for big numbers in this contest from him.
Los Angeles (Rams) At Chicago (-2.5)
This could be a great game to jump on the Caleb Williams train. The Rams have one of the weakest defenses in the league. Los Angeles surrendered well over 400-yards last week to a San Francisco offense that didn’t have Christian McCaffrey or Deebo Samuel.
Williams amassed 363-yards against the Colts in week three. He also delivered his best completion percentage and yards per attempt in the contest. The rookie has four interceptions on the season, and a pair in each of the past two games, so there are questions. There also have been no obvious contributors around him to date, so any wagers on the Chicago offense should be based on him.
Minnesota At Green Bay (-2.5)
Sam Darnold is having a great season for the Vikings. The real secret of that success, however, is that the Minnesota coaches are asking him not to do much more than play a ball-control offense and not make mistakes. There have been a handful of big plays, but most were the results of opportunity and not design.
Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler are splitting their offensive contributions at roughly a 2:1 ratio respectively, and provide a similar result when compared. Justin Jefferson has 3 touchdown receptions, and is averaging about 90-yards per game. There’s not much that inspires confidence of big performances or anything unexpected from a single Minnesota player.
Avoid the Packers for any real thoughts. Malik Willis is being asked to do less than Darnold. Jordan Love is likely going to be a gameday decision, and his health raises flags for his contribution level if he is on the field.
A trip to Houston might be exactly what Trevor Lawrence needs to raise his level of play.
Jacksonville At Houston (-7)
Back in 2022, the Jaguars opened the season with a loss and reached the halfway point with a record of 2-6 and stumbled to 4-8. They then swept their final five contests and an opening round playoff victory over the Chargers. They have bumbled about before in early weeks and delivered. Trouble is, there are far more examples of them coming up short and disappointing with Trevor Lawrence leading them than moments of brilliant successes. Bet Lawrence with care and caution in any scenario.
Divisional games get a bit of a different spotlight, and this one against Houston should be a good one. Lawrence, although he didn’t play the entire game in 2022, has always put up good numbers in Houston. In two of his three road games against the Texans, he has passed for more than 300-yards. He’s also been turnover prone, so expectations should be for him to reach a high-yardage total, throw multiple touchdown passes, and have at least one interception.
Pittsburgh (-2) At Indianapolis
Take the under. I don’t care what number the under is at, that’s the play here. The only reliable thing in this game is that neither team can reliably score.
Pittsburgh is still a massive work in progress on offense. Indianapolis scored against Houston, if we’re being fair and lenient in assigning credit, though as a divisional game that deserves being removed from true comparisons. The Colts beat the hapless Bears, and that counts for not much at all.
The final score should be lower than the results from Dallas against New York on Thursday. A combined total under 35 is likely.
Memo to the rest of the NFL, an Aaron Rodgers sighting has been verified in New York.
Denver At New York (Jets) (-7.5)
It took a few games, but against New England in week three, Aaron Rodgers put on a clinic and announced his New York arrival. He led the Jets to victory with a 27-for-35 night, passing for 281-yards and 2 touchdowns. While Denver has done a great job shutting doing passing games so far, he’ll be even better in this game.
The likelihood of strong numbers from the New York offense should result in Denver needing to pass more often. That could be good news for those waiting to see Bo Nix build on a decent week against Tampa. He was 25-for-36 while facing the Buccaneers, though not with explosive levels of yardage gains.
Philadelphia (-2.5) At Tampa Bay
This game is all about Saquon Barkley. In the three games so far, he’s averaging about 25 touches per game and more than 100-yards on the ground. He’s also getting into the end zone.
Jayden Daniels has been outstanding so far for Washington.
Washington At Arizona (-3.5)
No surprises in this game as far as focus. It’s the quarterbacks.
Jayden Daniels is already having a monster season, and already is not far from securing several rookie of the year awards. He has a completion percentage of 80%, on an average of 220-yards per game and about 25 attempts. He’s thrown for 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. Just a little side note, he’s rushed for 3 touchdowns at a clip slightly under 60-yards per game. About the only negative is 3 fumbles, which statistically have accounted for no losses.
Kyler Murray is doing well in his sixth season, and most of his numbers total as comparable to those being delivered by Daniels. 5 passing touchdowns against just one pick. About 210-yards in the air per game, and 55-yards on the ground.
If you can get either of these guys on a total-yards wager that looks decent, consider it. Neither of the defenses in this game are strong, and likely will be closer to bottom third of the league over the course of the season. The numbers don’t support enough targets to make any receivers a wise investment. Remember the news of Marvin Harrison Jr. breaking out in week two? He had four receptions that week, with the excitement generated around long gains. When targeted, he's catching less than half of the balls thrown his way. Look more toward the running game for additional options.
New England At San Francisco (-10)
Brock. Purdy.
All Purdy has done, with chaos and lineup changes around him in skill positions, is sit right at the top of the league in passing yardage and yards per attempt. Expect 300+ in the air from him, with multiple touchdown passes.
After two losses in a row, the 49ers are likely to enter this game looking to make a statement. That means controlling the game, not letting up on their intensity, and leaving no margin of error. It’s the perfect recipe for Purdy to have a big day.
Kansas City (-8.5) At Los Angeles (Chargers)
The word most commonly associated with Justin Herbert this week is progressing. The Los Angeles quarterback has been dealing with an ankle injury this season and has been limited in practice this week. Remove any and all Chargers offense wagers from your thoughts. Add in the likely absence of both left tackle Rashawn Slater and right tackle Joe Alt, and it could be a big day for the Kansas City defense.
There has been a lot of chatter about Travis Kelce’s lack of production this season. The news of a Joey Bosa injury might make this week the one to expect big returns from Kelce. There will be less pressure on the line to contain Bosa if he’s not playing or hampered, and the potential for a corresponding opening of the middle of the field. That should set the stage nicely for Patrick Mahomes to find his favorite target.
Brock Bowers could post a big day against the Browns.
Cleveland At Las Vegas (-1)
Davante Adams being added to the injury reports this week makes it a prime moment to look toward Brock Bowers if you like the Raiders in this contest. The tight hand has been good overall on the young season, and should get plenty of targets if Adams isn’t at full speed.
While Cleveland hasn’t been great at holding on to the football, Las Vegas has been worse. Open an eye in the direction of giveaways for an interesting addition to your bets.
Buffalo At Baltimore (-2.5)
Here’s my prediction for this game: Both teams will score at least 3 touchdowns and kick 2 field goals. The difference will be provided when one of the teams scores a fourth touchdown. I see 34-27 written all over this matchup.
The only sure thing in this contest is Baltimore’s running game. Derrick Henry has been steadily improving since the opener, and exploded with 151-yards and 2 touchdowns against Dallas. While that kind of production would find most coaching staffs happy to take the the pressure off of Lamar Jackson, he had 14 carries for 87-yards against the Cowboys and is averaging over 84-yards per game.
The gameplan for the Bills will be simple. Stop the run and force Jackson to win with his arm.
Odds sourced from USA Today
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