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Writer's pictureBob Hocking

Parlays And Prop Bets: 2024 NFL Week Nine

The Middle Of The Year Is A Good Point To Evaluate Players On Seasonal Performance.  This Week, History And Research Expose Several Places Where What We’ve Seen May Not Be What To Expect.


Learn From Cleveland Defeating Baltimore.  The Unbelievable Does Happen.


I’m going to tell you to look at Derrick Henry this week.  You probably shouldn’t.


The Denver defense is one of the top units in the NFL this year, and is giving up just over 100 rushing yards per game.  Plus, as impressive as Henry has been, he will not rush for 2,100 or more total yards in 2024.


Why should you look at Henry if his performance should dip, and the Broncos can stop the run?  In four of the eight games this year, he’s rushed for 132 yards or better, he had solid per-touch averages. At least 73 yards in three of the four where he didn’t.  Against the Broncos, he’s likely to get at least 15 carries in a game where ball control will be stressed.


Therein lies the problem with the NFL and wagers this week.  Everything looks so tempting until you begin considering the realities.  Then it becomes a mess.  Your expectations must be tempered by not rushing in when only supported by a general feeling that something is likely to happen, but not this week.


Henry’s performance will drop off. He’s a 30-year-old running back with a long history of being his team’s featured back. Baltimore will want him healthy and rested for the playoffs.  Be careful with him over the second half of 2024.


This idea holds with Dak Prescott facing Kirk Cousins and divisional rivals Miami and Buffalo playing.  Balance your impulse choices with a bit of knowledge.


Dallas has trouble scoring, even when Dak Prescott plays well.
While Dak Prescott puts up numbers, the Cowboys don't score points.

Dallas Cowboys At Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)


Avoid Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins in this game.  Both have played too inconsistently this season.  Before you scoff at that summary, consider the Cowboys have scored more than 20 points in just two of their eight games.  Against Carolina, Atlanta scored 38 points, but Cousins threw for only 225 yards and 1 touchdown.


Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts could have big games facing a Dallas defense that is having troubles this year.


Denver Broncos At Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)


The Derrick Henry talk seems to have quieted of late.  His numbers, however, tell a different story.  He’s rushed for a whopping 374 yards in the past three games.  The over/under in this match is around 92 yards.  That’s a high target, but he’s reached it or better in five of eight games.


Justin Tucker has had at least three extra points and two field goal attempts in the past four games.  Investigate the offerings for him in this contest.


Bo Nix has not created any room for trust in his young career, but his last game against Carolina was outstanding.  The Ravens are awful on passing defense, making Nix worth a hesitant consideration.


Miami Dolphins At Buffalo Bills (-6)


In the past two games, Josh Allen has thrown for a combined 606 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Buffalo spreads the ball around on offense, making Allen your best choice overall to include in wagers.  Think about pairing his passing yardage with James Cook’s rushing yardage or a receiving touchdown from Amari Cooper.


Miami is tougher to predict behind the returning Tua Tagovailoa but don’t be tempted.  The Dolphins have scored more than 20 points only once in the last five meetings with the Bills.


New Orleans Saints (-7) At Carolina Panthers


The only thing to know about this game is that the Panthers surrender an average of 34 points per game.  This makes Blake Grupe, the New Orleans placekicker, an interesting choice.  He’s hitting on roughly 93% of his attempts and has regularly connected from 40 yards or longer.  Grupe will be on the field often.


The Joe Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase connection needs to reset for Cincinnati to succeed.
Ja'Marr Chase hasn't played like Ja'Marr Chase in 2024.

Las Vegas Raiders At Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)


Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have not looked good this season.  A Raiders team that has defended the opponents’ passing games well, doesn’t appear a good fit for betting on that to change.  The reason I’d look for it anyway, can be found in what’s happening for Cincinnati in this contest.


This is an absolute must-win.  A loss will move the Bengals to 3-6 on the year.  Their next three games include the Ravens, Chargers, and Steelers.  Receiver Tee Higgins did not play last week, missed practice at the start of this week, and appears day-to-day approaching this game.  Desperate teams do what they do best, and Cincinnati does Burrow to Chase best.


Los Angeles (Chargers) (-2) At Cleveland Browns


Use the under from this game for all of your parlays.  Los Angeles gives up 13 points per game, while scoring less than 19.  There is nothing else to see here.


The Commanders are having a great year with Jayden Daniels.
Jayden Daniels is leading Washington along a brilliant season.

Washington Commanders (-3.5) At New York Giants


Take away the interception, look at his stat line, and you’ll find Daniel Jones played better against Pittsburgh than you think he did.  And still, the Giants have a combined 28 points over the last three games.  They are a bad team, all over.


Take Washington to do just about everything.  Take them for a passing touchdown.  Take them for a rushing touchdown.  Take Jayden Daniels to put on a cape.  Take them to win a game of badminton that might break out in the third quarter.  The Commanders are in the middle of a special season, which makes anything possible.


New England Patriots At Tennessee Titans (-3)


It would be tempting to look at the 1-6 Titans and decide they don’t do anything well.  That would be a mistake.  They are playing outstanding defense.


Stay away from this game.  New England isn’t going to do much on offense.  Nothing is going to happen when Tennessee has the ball.  If you need something here, investigate the options with turnovers from the Titans’ defense.


Chicago Bears At Arizona Cardinals (Pick)


Arizona has done well this season, but there are signs that troubles are not far away.  They have given up more than 350 yards of offense in almost every game, and have scored 30 points less than their opponents on the year.


Following last week’s emotional loss to Washington, Chicago may be poised for their best game of the season.  Expect big numbers from Caleb Williams, delivered through a balanced attack, where no one player is a standout to shine.  If you need to look for another Bears player for a wager, the running backs are where to start.


Detroit Lions (-3.5) At Green Bay Packers


Be careful with this game, as Jordan Love’s injury could spoil virtually every wager possible.  In addition to his stats, and the Packers’ performance, a diminished Green Bay offense could toy with the over/under and point spread.  As crazy as it may sound, the Detroit selection on the moneyline may be your friend if you want to use this game.


Los Angeles gets a significant lift from the return of Cooper Kupp.
Cooper Kupp's return could move the Rams into postseason consideration.

Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) At Seattle Seahawks


Seattle has crashed back to earth.  After an interesting start, the team has lost four of five and doesn’t look united.  Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned against the Vikings.  Nacua had the bigger numbers, though both were targeted about 8 times.  Reports indicate Nacua’s injury may have been aggravated this week.  Look for increased numbers from Kupp.


Trevor Lawrence has decent stats even with the Jaguars struggling.
Jacksonville looks lost as a team, but Trevor Lawrence's numbers are improving.

Jacksonville Jaguars At Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)


You may not believe this, but Trevor Lawrence has been playing well.  Over the past four games, he has 7 touchdown passes and 1,100 yards in the air.


Saquon Barkley has been outstanding overall and should do well in this game.  Consider Barkley by applying the thoughts about Derrick Henry.


Indianapolis Colts At Minnesota Vikings (-5)


The switch from Anthony Richardson to Joe Flacco has me concerned.  At 4-4, the Colts have defied many thoughts and done well.  Will the Richardson tap-out last week, which led to the quarterback change, cause a ripple in the locker room?  Or, will the quick and decisive action of the coaching staff, combined with the steady hand of Flacco in recent years, calm the waters?


Minnesota has lost two straight after looking outstanding to start the season.  They play the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans before facing the Bears.  A distracted Indianapolis team could lead to a blowout as Minnesota attempts to regain its confidence.


Check out Sam Darnold’s offerings, expecting multiple touchdown passes, and about 265 yards in the air.  This is a perfect game scenario for Justin Jefferson to go wild, perhaps with a long touchdown reception in the first quarter.  I will be disappointed if announcers don’t call a Darnold to Jefferson completion of more than 45 yards on the second Vikings’ possession of the game.


Odds sourced from USA Today


 

 

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