Parlays And Prop Bets: 2024 NFL Week Seven
Eliminate The Obvious Choices For Wagers This Week. The NFL Is Offering A Slate Of Contests Where The Safe Bets Will Not Generate Big Returns.
The 2024 Season Now Finds Teams Performing To Expectations More Often Than With Surprises. Be Thoughtful When Betting, Especially To Increase The Profits From A Win.
About five or six years ago, I was talking to someone while they cashed in a sports betting ticket after hitting on a parlay that involved ten wagers. His $5 bet returned $5.45. That does not mean he was handed $10.45 and won $5.45. It means he won 45 cents. He correctly placed ten sports bets as a parlay and won 45 cents.
The problem was, he failed to understand how to boost a parlay for a better payoff. He included several college football teams and took all of them as moneyline winners, He believed they would be automatic wins and combined would increase the value of the full ticket. Those football teams included Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and Oklahoma. If he wanted a big payout, the moneyline wagers on those powerhouse teams virtually guaranteed his money would have been better invested in a single Mega Millions ticket.
Last week, nine teams won by 10 or more points. Those winners did not include the two heaviest favorites.
Selecting a team like Buffalo, Cincinnati, or Washington to win this week on a moneyline wager will not deliver much of a return. As you research this week’s contests, be careful about wagering on the obvious. It’s nice to win. It takes a few risks to win big.
New England Patriots At Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) (In London, England)
There is a lot to like about this game because the matchup is so bad. This will not be a showcase of strong defenses.
The over/under is hovering around 42 points, and the final score should be over. Drake Maye’s second start could provide opportunities for total yardage and touchdown passes, which should boost any parlay.
Seattle Seahawks At Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Seattle has crashed after starting strong. The Seahawks have lost their last three games, giving up 107 total points. Keep Seattle out of your wagers.
Kirk Cousins will have a big game. Look for him to pass for more than 300 yards and throw 3 touchdowns. Drake London has been having a solid season. His efforts have kept decent numbers for Darnell Mooney relatively unrecognized. Consider adding Mooney to your wagers.
Tennessee Titans At Buffalo Bills (-9)
I’ve repeatedly said: If you don’t like the underdog to win, never bet on them to cover. Even if you believe the 9-point spread is too high, the game will end with Buffalo putting a big number on the scoreboard.
Amari Cooper is moving toward getting on the field following his trade to the Bills. Buffalo, however, hasn’t used the passing game for strong numbers this season, and what they have accomplished has been spread around the roster. I don’t believe they’ll force the ball his way in this game, as it completely shifts the dynamic that has worked this year.
In this game, look toward James Cook for your decisions. If he plays, Cook will get plenty of early carries when they matter the most. That should lead to solid numbers before the Bills take a comfortable lead and rest him in the second half. If he doesn’t play, look to Josh Allen for passing yardage, and consider Keon Coleman and Mack Hollis as options for a touchdown catch.
Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) At Cleveland Browns
Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are obvious choices for a big day. Even if the pair does produce, using Burrow or Chase in your bets may not make a big impact on your parlay results. Instead, Chase Brown and Zack Moss are good options. Brown has been delivering better production numbers in recent weeks. Both running backs are getting carries and have a chance to score.
Houston Texans At Green Bay Packers (-3)
The over/under for this game is around 47.5 points. That feels too obvious as a bet for the over, and I’d advise you to approach it cautiously.
Nico Collins is out again for the Texans. That should mean more production for Stefon Diggs, but his number of targets has gone down each week for the past three games. The safest player from Houston for wagers may be the placekicker, Ka’imi Fairbairn. The Texans’ offense will give Fairbairn opportunities this week, and he is successfully being used often for attempts longer than 50 yards.
Outside of Jordan Love, not much makes sense on the Green Bay roster. Josh Jacobs is a great example. Jacobs comfortably leads the team in rushing, but he only has 1 touchdown for the season, and over the past four weeks is averaging just 57 yards per game.
Miami Dolphins At Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
Indianapolis has a bad defense. The Colts are in the bottom third of the league in passing, rushing, and overall defensive rankings.
If you believe the Miami Dolphins are capable of strong production, this is the game to wager on. Tyler Huntley has not been good, and that may allow for some great payoffs. Huntley hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass, and the over will deliver in your picks.
Detroit Lions At Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
These two teams are evenly matched. Both provide well-balanced attacks supported by strong defensive play. The 50-point over/under, combined with these defenses, has me leaning toward the under. My thoughts also include special teams for the best betting options.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) At New York Giants
Nothing about this game makes sense from a sports betting perspective. Neither team has played consistently well in any area. Even with a return to New York storyline, Saquon Barkley has seen a decline in production after a strong start.
Las Vegas Raiders At Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
I’d love to offer some surprises about the Raiders in this game. Unfortunately, the Las Vegas coaching staff has been spinning its wheels and the quarterback decisions are a major question mark. Plus, the trade of Davante Adams continues to hurt the locker room. There is nothing to take comfort in.
The interesting part of this game is Cooper Kupp. The most recent report lists him as questionable in this contest. If he plays, his production could be worth the risk.
Carolina Panthers At Washington Commanders (-7.5)
Do we even need to say Jayden Daniels? Carolina has the worst scoring defense in football, allowing four more points per game than any other team. Take Daniels to both run and pass for scores. Watch for Brian Robinson Jr. to play after missing last week’s game.
Kansas City Chiefs At San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)
Both teams are battling injuries, and nothing makes much sense as the game approaches. Brock Purdy has been consistently good, especially considering the rotating cast surrounding him. In this game, Purdy faces one of the league’s best defenses.
Consider the San Francisco defense as a surprise to add to your wagers. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been brilliant this year, with at least 1 interception every week, and an average of 247 yards passing per game. If Mahomes is forced to play from behind, the 49ers’ defense could see more sacks and turnovers.
New York Jets (-1.5) At Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers will pass often in this game. The main beneficiary will be newly acquired Davante Adams. The Rodgers to Adams call will be repeated constantly.
Pittsburgh creates the most difficulty in this game in several ways. The Steelers have a strong defense, but Rodgers and company may be throwing everything at them out of frustration and desperation. Pittsburgh has also not settled the debate of keeping Justin Fields at quarterback or switching to Russell Wilson.
Odds sourced from USA Today
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