Parlays And Prop Bets: 2024 NFL Week Six
Several Contests Should Be Avoided At All Costs This Week, Having No Obvious Or Hidden Elements Worthy Of A Risk. Instead, Focus On The Known, And Take Advantage Of Favorable Conditions.
Week Six Of The NFL Season Presents Some Terrific Games, And The Sunday Slate Has Some Good Storylines. It Does Not Have A Significant Number Of Places To Add To Parlays Or Prop Thoughts.
The entire problem with this week can be found in the very first game on the Sunday schedule. London will be the locale for the match between Jacksonville and Chicago.
There are questions surrounding both clubs. Is Jacksonville as bad as they’ve played? Is Chicago as good as their record? The two most exciting players to watch are rookies, Chicago’s Caleb Williams and Jacksonville’s Brian Thomas Jr. Beyond Williams and Thomas, there is nothing to include when sorting out decisions on prop bets, or looking for unique ways of boosting a parlay.
When this week’s games conclude, more than a third of the NFL season will be complete. Let’s take a look at some things to watch.
Caleb Williams is showing signs of consistently decent play.
Jacksonville Jaguars At Chicago Bears (-2.5) (In London, England)
Two names I like in this game are rookies, quarterback Caleb Williams and receiver Brian Thomas Jr. Williams has been around 275 yards and about 2 touchdowns per game over the past three contests. Thomas is currently the leading rookie receiver for yardage, and will get close to 10 targets in this game. Both should deliver to their averages with ease.
Jayden Daniels may have the best season ever for a rookie quarterback.
Washington Commanders At Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
I don’t believe Baltimore will be able to completely shut down Jayden Daniels. They are giving up a lot of points each week. The Ravens have a strong run defense, but Daniels can throw the ball and I anticipate the play-calling shifting in that direction for him. A combined yardage concept should work nicely for him.
Washington’s defense is not good against the run. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry should run wild while the Ravens dominate time of possession.
After a difficult opening two games, Justin Tucker returned to reliability last week against the Bengals. Tucker was 2-2 on field goals, including one from 56 yards out, and added 5 extra points. He’s going to be busy in this game.
Josh Jacobs is poised for a huge game against the Cardinals.
Arizona Cardinals At Green Bay Packers (-5)
Both teams will score and surrender around 25 points, so expect a close game that lands on 50 combined points. Jordan Love followed a 389-yard game returning from injury with 224 last week, and his completion percentage is 65.1 percent for the season. Arizona has no receivers averaging more than 55 yards per contest.
This matchup is going to be about hidden treasures. The Cardinals are horrible against the run, and Josh Jacobs should be considered for a breakout performance for the Packers. The Arizona kicking game is worth researching, but will be driven by injury decisions. Matt Prater missed last week’s game and will be evaluated during practice this week. His replacement, Chad Ryland, did well in game five. Watch the injury reports and look at whether Prater or Ryland is given the nod.
Houston Texans (-7) At New England
Drake Maye is getting the call to start for New England. And here’s an intriguing thought: The play calling for the Patriots against the Dolphins last week was surprisingly pass-heavy. New England against Miami was a close game, with the Patriots successfully running the ball. Jacoby Brissett was still called on to pass almost twice as often as the team ran.
Houston should be playing from out front on the scoreboard. New England is showing a preference to throw the ball. If you’re looking for an interesting twist, consider Maye getting significantly more than 30 passing attempts in this contest.
Is Baker Mayfield finally in his forever home?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) At New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr will not play in this game. Baker Mayfield is challenging his team to show they can close out opponents, and he is also delivering decent performances to date.
Even with injuries, the Buccaneers’ defense should have a great game this week. Take Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin, to put up strong numbers.
Cleveland Browns At Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
This is a game to avoid. Cleveland has done nothing in any area to suggest they are worthy of wagers. They have yet to score more than 18 points in a game, and have twice given up more than 30 points.
Philadelphia is going to win, but they have been inconsistent in getting to a 2-2 record. Since opening strong against the Packers, the Eagles have scored 21, 15 and 16 points.
Indianapolis Colts (-1) At Tennessee Titans
I’d love to give you a gem for this game, but there’s nothing. Joe Flacco looked great last week for the Colts. Indianapolis lost that game to Jacksonville, and week six is approaching with the anticipated return of Flacco to the backup role as quarterback Anthony Richardson gets the start.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) At Denver Broncos
Denver’s defense. That’s it. The Broncos offer nothing on offense. The Chargers have Justin Herbert practicing this week, with early reports of an ankle brace still protecting his leg injury. Los Angeles is coming off their bye week and looked terrible in the two games before that.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) At Las Vegas Raiders
Take the Steelers’ defense here. Look toward nothing else. Quarterback uncertainty, injuries, and trade rumors create a mess for the Raiders. Despite starting strong, Pittsburgh has dropped two straight and is closer to replacing Justin Fields with Russell Wilson than anyone currently seems to be reporting.
Bijan Robinson will have a huge stat line against the Panthers.
Atlanta Falcons (-6) At Carolina Panthers
Carolina’s defense is awful, and they are giving up points at a rate that leads the NFL by more than 5 points per game. The Panthers also have a lot of uncertainty on offense. The best idea is to stay away from all of their players
Add Kirk Cousins and Bijan Robinson to your plans. Cousins will be good throughout the game, and Robinson will have plenty of second-half carries in a blowout. The Atlanta receivers will have solid numbers, though picking one for a monster stat line isn’t obvious.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) At Dallas Cowboys
Detroit has one of the strongest offenses in the league and looked wedged right up against perfect against Seattle before their bye week. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have been about equal at production from the running back position. Even splitting, Gibbs and Montgomery are strong enough to expect a touchdown from each with the possibility of decent receiving numbers added to their totals. Similarly, Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown are turning in similar performances. Williams will have more yards in this game, while St. Brown will get more targets. Jared Goff should throw for more than 300 yards and 2 scores.
The warning here involves trusting other areas of Detroit’s game. Dallas is dangerous on offense, and even with two home losses, they should not be dismissed. Also, for all the offensive success, Lions kicker Jake Prater has been accurate but not frequently trying field goals. Most of his work has been extra points, and he has yet to attempt a field goal of more than 40 yards.
Ja'Marr Chase is back in top form.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) At New York Giants
Load up on Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, and add Tee Higgins. The Bengals are going to roll this week.
Odds sourced from USA Today
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