Parlays And Prop Bets: 2024 NFL Week Ten
Imagination Can Pay Off In Big Numbers, But It Doesn’t Pay Off Often. Sunday’s Slate Of Games Offers Little Room For Imaginative Thoughts.
Week Ten Offers Little For Surprises From Prop Bets And Creating Parlays. Think About How The Games Will Play Out Before Taking The Obvious Selections.
In 2007, Randy Moss had 23 touchdown receptions. During a 16-game season, he had three games without a touchdown and eight with multiple touchdowns.
In 2023, Christian McCaffrey rushed for 14 touchdowns. He scored 7 of those in the first five games. He also had 7 receiving touchdowns, giving him 21 for the season. He scored in 14 of San Francisco’s 17 regular season games.
When placing wagers on individual stats and accomplishments, there are certain times when it makes sense to look toward the obvious. Anticipating Joe Burrow connecting with Ja’Marr Chase makes sense as a consideration, week after week. This year, no team is scoring when they face the Chargers. Both of these ideas seem good from the start. The obvious thoughts, however, are not always that clear.
Derrick Henry, at 30 years old, is currently on pace to rush for 1,987 yards. Regardless of how amazing he has looked and how well Baltimore is doing, it is more likely his production drops off. That may be because the Ravens reduce his touches to keep him fresh for the playoffs and not something easy to predict from outside.
The obvious also doesn’t always pay. Henry has scored 11 rushing touchdowns and 13 total for the season. Most prop bets for this week’s game against Cincinnati set Henry’s over/under for touchdowns at 2. Most places have Henry scoring at all as a -300 wager. In the same game, Ja’Marr Chase is at -125 for any touchdown. (Note: The Ravens played the Bengals on Thursday, so you won’t see them in this article featuring Sunday’s games.)
It makes sense to wager on Henry until Henry doesn’t deliver. The same was true with Moss and McCaffrey. Henry is clearing 100 yards plus a touchdown each week. Just remember, it’s called sports betting and not sports sure thing.
(Game summary: Henry rushed for 68 yards and 1 touchdown against the Bengals. Ja’Marr Chase had 11 receptions for 264 yards and 3 touchdowns. Sometimes the obvious doesn’t happen, and sometimes it does.)
New York Giants (-6) At Carolina Panthers
I hate everything about this game.
I hate trying to predict Daniel Jones against a team that gives up more points than anyone else in the league. I hate trying to predict how Bryce Young will do against a mediocre defense.
These teams are so unreliable and unpredictable, that even looking toward the over/under for the game or wagers involving defensive accomplishments don’t make sense.
New England Patriots At Chicago Bears (-6)
The Bears will reveal exactly what we can expect of them for the remainder of the season. They are currently 4-4 in the brutally difficult NFC North division. If they are going to make a run at the playoffs, this should be no contest and a 34-20 victory. If they are going to methodically move toward an 8 or 9-win season, the final score might be closer to a 21-17 win or an upset from the Patriots.
Chicago has taken care of inferior teams. They beat the Panthers 36-10 and the Jaguars 35-16. Look for Caleb Williams to have a good game, with multiple touchdown passes. Expect the Patriots to fall behind by two or more scores early, allowing for more pass attempts from Drake Maye that could inflate his numbers.
Buffalo Bills (-4) At Indianapolis Colts
The Bills may deliver one of history’s most successful game-by-game, win-and-move-on-without-fanfare seasons in 2024. The only exciting element of their play is Josh Allen throwing 2 touchdown passes per game with only 2 interceptions for the season. They win and move on.
Indianapolis is an unknown thanks to their 4-5 record and stories about the quarterback room. The best thoughts here lean toward combining Allen’s touchdown throws with James Cook for a rushing score.
Minnesota Vikings (-4) At Jacksonville Jaguars
Go wild with Minnesota in this game. Use Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones, and Justin Jefferson for big stat days. Be wary of how the Vikings spread the ball around, focusing your scoring thoughts on Darnold for touchdown passes. Will Reichard has done well kicking from long-distance, and he could be busy in this contest. Even the Vikings’ defense is worth investigating for options.
Denver Broncos At Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
The obvious choice is to look at Patrick Mahomes and pick one of Kansas City’s receivers to have a big day. Travis Kelce has been strong in the past two games and is due for a multiple-touchdown performance. DeAndre Hopkins was also featured highly last week against Tampa Bay.
Beyond the obvious, the defenses create interesting possibilities. Both units have been the real stars of the year for these teams.
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) At New Orleans Saints
Reread the thoughts about Minnesota playing Jacksonville. Substitute Kirk Cousins for Darnold. Atlanta is set for a big game.
San Francisco 49ers (-5) At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
San Francisco defeated Dallas, had a bye last week, and now has this matchup with all eyes on Christian McCaffrey. That is the full story of this game. Both teams sit on the edge of the playoff race with roughly even records. They also have dealt with injury issues the entire year.
I’ve been impressed with Baker Mayfield. He leads the league with 23 touchdown passes and averages 265 passing yards per game. Mayfield should have multiple touchdowns and approach 300 yards in the air as the Buccaneers keep it close to the end.
McCaffrey is the wild card here. If the 49ers can use him without limitations, his performance could turn a nail-biter into a laugher.
Pittsburgh Steelers At Washington Commanders (-3)
Pittsburgh’s defense does not give up points. Washington’s offense scores about as well as any team in the league. One of those concepts is in trouble.
The Steelers have given up more than 18 points only two times this season, with opponents averaging less than 15 per game. Jayden Daniels has been phenomenal to date and will have some moments, but this matchup does not suggest a big day.
Tennessee Titans At Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5)
The Chargers shut down the scoreboard. Unfortunately, the Los Angeles offense has been horrendous.
Los Angeles will win this game and should cover the spread. The smart money will be on the under, which most places have set around 38.
New York Jets At Arizona Cardinals (-1)
Nothing about the Jets or Aaron Rodgers makes sense this year. Last week, New York defeated Houston. In that game, Rodgers had 3 touchdown passes while completing 68.8% of his passes. That seems about right. He also threw for just 211 yards. That does not seem right at all.
This game will have plenty of scoring. Your wagers should be based on whether or not you believe Rodgers and the Jets can keep pace with Kyler Murray and the Cardinals.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) At Dallas Cowboys
Everything about Dallas screams to stay away from them. Unless your wagers are for their lack of performance, there is nothing to consider here.
Philadelphia presents a different problem. Take a look at Jake Elliot. The Eagles are 6-2. Elliot is twenty-fourth in scoring for kickers this year. Philadelphia has played this season with Saquon Barkley and not much else.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) At Houston Texans
Detroit is playing outstanding football and should win this game without much difficulty. The problems predicting betting options were demonstrated two weeks ago.
The Lions beat the Titans 52-14. Jared Goff had 3 touchdown passes in the game. He also threw for just 85 yards. That would suggest a huge day for rushing from Detroit, but they only delivered 164 yards on the ground. While not bad, it’s hardly what you would expect from the winning team in a lopsided game with no significant passing gains.
Expect solid numbers from Goff this week, as he continues his run toward an MVP award. While thinking of him, look to the defense and special teams for contributions this week. A kick return for a touchdown or a turnover for a score are good options.
Odds sourced from USA Today
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