Patriots’ Draft Plan? Possible Trade Down Scenarios
The Patriots have glaring needs all over the roster. They have play-making issues in the front seven. They need to add offensive line pieces. Cornerback is another long-term need. Of course, there is the need for a true number one weapon for Mac Jones.
With this many holes and a limited amount of top 100 picks, it’s safe to assume a trade down is coming. Most people hear this and believe it is a bad thing. In this year’s class, even though there are a lot of solid starters, the more picks in the top 100 a team has, the better chance to get impact players.
Now if Jordan Davis or Derek Stingley fall to 21 then it’s best to take that type of blue-collar player and be happy. However, if the board falls right moving back and picking up premium picks in this year’s draft could quickly remake this unit.
Trade Down Spots
The big swing approach to this idea would be making a phone call to Kansas City. They own picks 29 and 30, this is a sweet spot for me. It would take more than just the 21st in this year’s draft. Using the Pro Football Focus simulator I sent some offers. The offer that was accepted was this year’s 21st pick, 127, 158, 170 2024 first-round pick, and N’Keal Harry for 29, 30, 50, and 62.
Some may ask why the Chiefs would give up those picks, but in reality, 29,62 is a fair deal to move up 8 spots. Then they got a 2024 first, those three late-round picks, and N’Keal Harry for 30 and 50. So when you break it down, it is a pretty even deal.
This type of deal makes sense for the Patriots because if they are lucky players like Nakobe Dean or Andrew Booth Jr. could fall. Even if they didn’t, players like Kaiir Elam, Jalen Pitre, and Skyy Moore would all be day-one starters for the team. Instead of just netting one, they have a chance at two.
This type of trade would also give them two more second-round picks. At this point, with that much capital, they can move all across the board picking up more picks and still getting the players they want. Some viable options could be Leo Chenal, Josh Pascal, Khalil Shakir, or Troy Anderson.
Other potential trade-down partners could be Buffalo at 25, Detroit at 32, or the Jets with 35 and 38. With these trades, we would have to give up less, but we would also get less impact this year.
Possible Day 2/3 Trades
Depending on the type of talent that is available at 21, New England may have to move on its first day two selection to add more top 100 picks. This should be the main goal because that gives us the best chance to get talented players on rookie contracts.
Teams that could be looking to move up to pick 54 are the 49ers and the Bears. Another dark horse move could be to call the Seahawks sitting at 40 & 41. A future pick would have to be involved in order to trade up but I’m all for adding talent in this draft. The team needs help now, not in the future.
With the way the salary cap is exploding, second contract guys are going to get extremely overpriced. Building through the draft will essentially become the most important way to roster-build. New England might as well get in front of the curve and load up on picks this year and really start to add to that young core of playmakers.
If they were able to pull off anything close to the trade I made with the Chiefs, they will be in excellent shape to move around the draft board. If there was a year to load up on second and third-round picks, this would be the year.
Final Thoughts
This article is more of a “what I would do” scenario rather than what I think the team will exactly do. However, I believe they will meet somewhere in the middle, making at least one decisive move back in the first or second to gain multiple top-100 picks.
As I said earlier, if one of those blue-collar, top-tier players falls to 21, then you need to take them.
If the board doesn’t fall how they would like, then I would contest that this is a great year to move back and get more shots at the target. With this type of approach, there is also an ability to double-dip on positions of need, such as cornerback, edge rusher, wide receiver, and offensive tackle.
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