Penny In The Lead, Cassie Holding Steady Heading Into NFL Week 4 Picks
Penny Delivers Her Third Week Of Winners. Cassie Struggles, But Stays Even Overall. The NFL Games In Week Four Are A Mess To Predict Against The Spread.
The Dogs Are Looking Good As The Scramble At The Start Of The NFL Season Settles A Bit And September Offers Its Final Games. After Falling Behind At The Beginning, Penny And Cassie Are Delivering A Competitive Run With Smart And Surprising Predictions.
Following a strong three weeks, Penny is tied for the lead in wins so far, while Cassie isn't far behind with an even record for the year.
When people discuss what it must be like to pick against the spread, they often fail to take into consideration many of the factors that are part of the process. A brilliant example of this was provided by the San Francisco 49ers last week. (All of these links are from Mike Florio and his terrific team at Pro Football Talk.)
Tuesday, September 17th
Brandon Aiyuk was not around for most of training camp. Although in good physical shape, his football conditioning was apparently short by enough that he wasn’t prepared to take 100% of the offensive snaps he usually would. As preparations for week three began, the stories of Aiyuk’s progress picked up a bit just as word came that Deebo Samuel would be out with a calf injury.
Thursday, September 19th
Things steadily went from bad to worse for the 49ers. It kicked off with reports George Kittle wasn’t practicing. That moved into news of Kittle having hamstring issues. An announcement followed that Charvarius Ward missed practice due to problems with his hamstring and knee. All of which moved into serious bad things come in threes territory when Nick Bosa appeared on the practice report for the day with a rib injury.
Saturday, September 21st
The week moved along from the initial announcements into multiple days of words like doubtful and questionable being considered and applied. By Saturday, Kittle was ruled out, along with Christian McCaffrey (out all season to date) and Samuel. Ward and Bosa would both play against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.
Most serious gamblers wait as long as possible to make their selections and place wagers. Unless they believe that there is something available to take advantage of, such as a rection to the first point spreads being released, there are too many things that can and do go wrong during the week. In the vast majority of cases, it isn’t worth investing valuable dollars on a bet made Tuesday, only to see injury reports and other factors change the evaluation of a game by kickoff.
The progression for the 49ers demonstrates that there is something to the “ignorance is bliss” expression when it comes to sports betting. A similar ignorance, or at least a bliss for the unaware, comes from being a dog making selections without any knowledge of injury reports. A bliss that Penny cashed in for her best week of the season. She is now atop our leader board.
Week Three:
Bob: 7-9
Penny: 10-6
Cassie: 7-9
The Year To Date:
Bob: 25-19-4
Penny: 25-19-4
Cassie 22-22-4
Week four is here, and it’s time for the three of us to make our picks. Penny is the only one to have a winning record every week. Cassie hasn’t been doing poorly, and she continues to tread water at an even record. I’m trying to make some better decisions, with an outstanding opening week still allowing me to claim a share of the lead.
Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) At New York Giants
Usually, I’m a big believer in considering divisional matchups as difficult games to predict. The Cowboys and the Giants has plenty of history, and is a big enough game to merit such thoughts. In 2022 and 2023, however, Dallas plowed over New York. Even with a win last week against the Browns, the Giants are averaging just 15-points per game. That is not going to be enough in this contest.
Bob: Dallas
Penny: New York
Cassie: Dallas
New Orleans Saints At Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
The early season fireworks from New Orleans came to a crashing halt in week three against Philadelphia. The Falcons, even with a 1-2 record, seem to be settling in after a rocky opening against the Steelers. They defeated the Eagles, and then lost to the defending Super Bowl champs. If Kirk Cousins can avoid turnovers in this contest, I think he will lead Atlanta to a win.
Bob: Atlanta
Penny: New Orleans
Cassie: Atlanta
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) At Carolina Panthers
Best wishes to anyone trying to make sense of this game. The Cincinnati locker room has to be a miserable place right now, with all sorts of frustrations off the field, and an 0-3 record on it. Carolina, quite likely the worst team in the league, went on the road last week and looked like a playoff contender. The Panthers are not a playoff contender. They’ll finish the season likely only adding three or less victories to their final record. Even in losing to the Commanders, the Bengals finally had a Ja’Marr Chase sighting. The star receiver put up 118-yards and 2 touchdowns in the game. I believe in Chase more than I believe in the Panthers.
Bob: Cincinnati
Penny: Cincinnati
Cassie: Carolina
Los Angeles Rams At Chicago Bears (-2.5)
I just want to make sure I have this correct: (1) The Bears have looked horrendous this season, with a victory gifted to them by the Titans the only win. (2) The Rams last week put up 13-points in the fourth quarter to come from behind and defeat the 49ers. (3) The Bears are favored in this game. Does all of that look accurate? Ok. The world makes no sense.
Bob: Los Angeles
Penny: Los Angeles
Cassie: Chicago
Minnesota Vikings At Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
This has all the signs needed to be the game of the week. Green Bay has Jordan Love back, and has been fairly solid in all phases as a team. Minnesota is playing outstanding football so far this year. Have you seen Sam Darnold’s stats so far in 2024? He’s played three games, while completing 68% of his passes with 8 touchdowns. Minnesota’s focus has been terrific so far, with a true team effort week after week. I think that continues here.
Bob: Minnesota
Penny: Green Bay
Cassie: Minnesota
Jacksonville Jaguars At Houston Texans (-7)
The Jaguars are coming off of their worst performance since drafting Trevor Lawrence, with a 47-10 loss to the Bills. Actually, that’s not completely fair or accurate, since Lawrence played against New England as a rookie in a game Jacksonville lost 50-10. What is fair and accurate is that more was expected of the Jags and Lawrence this season than 2021, with owner Shahid Khan proclaiming the 2024 edition was the best team in the history of the organization. Jacksonville arrives at this matchup in a difficult spot and looking lost. Houston is 2-1 on the year, but has some real questions being raised. The victories came against the woeful Colts and Bears, and last week they were embarrassed by the Vikings. Did you know these teams, playing in the same division, have split their four meetings over the past two seasons? It’s true. Did you know that every victory of those four games went to the visiting team? That’s also true.
Bob: Jacksonville
Penny: Jacksonville
Cassie: Jacksonville
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) At Indianapolis Colts
There were a lot of people that aren’t fans of Pittsburgh hoping that teams got things tidied up and solidified this season before the Steelers figured out what to do at quarterback. The list of such people included all AFC opponents. This week four game finds Pittsburgh still without a definitive answer about their quarterback. It also arrives with the Steelers 3-0 and two games ahead of every other team in the division. Baltimore, Cleveland, and Cincinnati need to get their ships moving on a better course, because Pittsburgh is about to be 4-0.
Bob: Pittsburgh
Penny: Pittsburgh
Cassie: Indianapolis
The girls used some time at the park to make this week's selections.
Denver Broncos At New York Jets (-7.5)
After playing a lot of games in a short window, the Jets arrive here with some additional days off, following a game where Aaron Rodgers showed flashes of being Aaron Rodgers. New England entered that contest after two games where they looked feisty and united. All Rodgers did was go 27-35 for 281-yards and a pair of touchdowns while leaving the Patriots dazed and defeated. I don’t think Bo Nix is ready to keep pace with Rodgers.
Bob: New York
Penny: Denver
Cassie: Denver
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The biggest problem in evaluating this contest is that the Eagles have looked sloppy and inconsistent all season. Every game has been close, and each game has been uglier to watch than the one before it. Last week they escaped New Orleans with a 15-12 victory over the highest scoring team in the league. Now they face a Tampa Bay club that doesn’t offer much in the way of reliability. After methodical and controlled wins over the Commanders and Lions, they looked awful at home against the Broncos. (As a side note, significant of nothing, does anyone have a coin I could borrow to flip?)
Bob: Philadelphia
Penny: Tampa Bay
Cassie: Philadelphia
Washington Commanders At Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)
Does a loss against Detroit count more or less than any other game result for Arizona? The Cardinals lost, but looked decent in their opener with the Bills. They destroyed the Rams the next week at home. Then, the Lions came to visit and beat the Cardinals 20-13. I believe many people were expecting the Cardinals to be 0-3 and headed to an early-season arrival in the collection of also-rans. Unfortunately for their hopes, the Commanders are arriving with a quarterback in Jayden Daniels that has virtually locked up offensive rookie of the year honors. Washington is 2-1 so far, and the club appears more confident every day. Remember I mentioned the Cardinals destroyed the Rams? They actually rushed for 231-yards in that game. Murray was good, and threw 3-touchdown passes, but he wasn’t the story of that matchup. He’s averaging 212-yards passing each week so far, and that kind of performance will not beat Washington.
Bob: Washington
Penny: Washington
Cassie: Arizona
New England Patriots At San Francisco 49ers (-10)
I watched the Patriots play the Jets in week three. New England looked overwhelmed on the field and emotionless on the sidelines. All of the fun and energy that had surrounded the team in the opening two weeks had vanished, leaving behind a group that looked every ounce like one of the worst two or three teams in the NFL. This week, they play a San Francisco group that is desperate, coming off of two losses. In those games, Brock Purdy has looked better and better. San Francisco needs a never in doubt, beginning to end win to get back on track. Even with the injury questions and large spread, take the 49ers.
Bob: San Francisco
Penny: San Francisco
Cassie: San Francisco
Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) At Los Angeles Chargers
There are simply too many questions about Justin Herbert and his injury (or injuries) to give Los Angeles any chance in this game.
Bob: Kansas City
Penny: Los Angeles
Cassie: Los Angeles
Cleveland Browns At Las Vegas Raiders (-1)
Last week’s loss to Carolina hurt Las Vegas in many ways. In addition to being a game against an inferior opponent that good teams don’t lose, it also followed a brilliant performance against the Ravens. A crushing defeat is the cliched way to describe it. The Browns, somehow, may be entering in an even worse condition. Cleveland arrives with a 1-2 record, and they haven’t managed to score more than 18-points in a game while playing Dallas, Jacksonville and New York (Giants).
Bob: Las Vegas
Penny: Cleveland
Cassie: Las Vegas
Buffalo Bills At Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
I have no idea how the Ravens are favored in this game. Their reputation deserves it, but their play to date does not. Baltimore barely beat Dallas last week while Buffalo delivered a complete textbook rout over Jacksonville. There are plenty of examples this season of teams turning things on and off from week to week, and the Ravens are one of the top teams in the AFC. A victory here, at home, is easily something Baltimore could accomplish. Buffalo is the consistent all year, looking sharp each week, better selection.
Bob: Buffalo
Penny: Buffalo
Cassie: Buffalo
Tennessee Titans At Miami Dolphins (Pick)
If I’m going to make a stupid, overreaching selection this week, this is where I think I should do it. Tua Tagovailoa is on injured reserve, and Skylar Thompson has a rib injury. The Dolphins managed 186-passing yards off of 32 attempts while losing to Seattle. The Titans have been a bumbling mess this season. File this one under blind squirrel finds acorn.
Bob: Tennessee
Penny: Tennessee
Cassie: Tennessee
Seattle Seahawks At Detroit Lions (-4)
I honestly don’t trust either of these clubs. Detroit has yet to perform like the team many felt could reach the Super Bowl. The reality is simple, you play the teams in front of you, and the most important thing is getting a win and moving on. Seattle is 3-0, but as this young season moves along those victories against Denver, New England and Miami are already looking less impressive. The Lions, so far, have the more solid wins.
Bob: Detroit
Penny: Seattle
Cassie: Detroit
Odds sourced from USA Today
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