Penny Is On Fire As The NFL Heads To Week Six
Twelve Correct Selections Gives Penny An Easy Win In Week Five. The Results Give Her Separation From Bob And Cassie, As They Trio Prepares For The 2024 Season To Continue.
All Three Competitors Remain Above Even For The Season. The Challenge Between Bob And The Dogs Continues As Week Six Approaches.
Hurricane Milton forced an evacuation for Penny and Cassie. They're doing well and have submitted a solid batch of picks for week six.
Penny has been correct with almost 61% of her picks. To provide additional context, in a sports book, a gambler must win 52.4% of the time to break even. Penny is currently delivering at 60.8%. In rough numbers, if she was placing the classic $110 wagered to win $100 bet on each game: (1) Penny would have lost $2,970. (2) She would have won $4,600. (3) Her total from winnings would be $1,630.
Cassie is also doing well. While her 50.6% on the year is below breaking even for gambling numbers, she is ahead for the season. In the meantime, I’m in the middle of the pair, hitting the right choice in 57% of the games.
Week Five:
Bob: 8-5-1
Penny: 12-1-1
Cassie: 4-9-1
The Year To Date:
Bob: 42-31-5
Penny: 46-27-5
Cassie 37-36-5
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) At Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco is 2-3 on the year and 0-2 in the division. Brock Purdy is coming off his worst game of the season, and injuries have turned player availability into an unreliable guessing game.
Seattle has performed fairly well most weeks, but enters this game following two losses. The Seahawks are currently atop the NFC West division.
The 49ers should take the early lead in this game, and that’s when the trouble could begin. The Rams and Cardinals surged late in their games and outlasted the 49ers. Geno Smith has been playing decent football this year, the 49ers continue to look fatigued, and the Seahawks will be close enough in the end to steal a victory.
Bob: Seattle
Penny: San Francisco
Cassie: San Francisco
Jacksonville Jaguars At Chicago Bears (-2.5) (In London, England)
I am not a believer when it comes to the Chicago Bears. Their 3-2 record is built on smoke, mirrors, and schedule. The Bears, however, are a team that will be much stronger at the end of the season than they were at the beginning, and the transitions are beginning to show.
Caleb Williams, over the past three games, is 70-104 passing for 824 yards and 5 touchdowns. He hasn’t had a turnover in the past two games. The biggest issue is the pounding Williams is facing, having been sacked 17 times.
Bob: Chicago
Penny: Jacksonville
Cassie: Chicago
Washington Commanders At Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Baltimore’s strength has not been a complete defense, though they are outstanding against the run. That matters this week, as rookie sensation Jayden Daniels may be forced to pass the ball to move the Commanders. This could happen, as the Ravens are struggling to stop passing attacks.
The ultra-reliable Justin Tucker is trying to settle down after a difficult start. The power for the Ravens is the duo of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. The Commandeers are an average unit on defense this season, and their biggest weakness is stopping the run.
Bob: Baltimore
Penny: Baltimore
Cassie: Washington
Arizona Cardinals At Green Bay Packers (-5)
Jordan Love hasn’t settled into a true rhythm this season, though he is averaging 291 yards and at least 2 touchdowns per game even as he returns from an injury. Love has struggled to protect the ball though, with 5 interceptions in three games.
Kyler Murray hasn’t been as explosive in the air for Arizona, but he has been consistent and is protecting the football. He should throw for about 200 yards and run for another 50 yards. Combine passing and rushing, and stats say he’ll be directly involved in 2 touchdowns.
The big factor is that the Packers match up well on defense. They are better against the run, bottom third of the league against the pass, and middle of the league in points allowed. That should be enough for Arizona to stay close into the fourth quarter, but not enough to win at Lambeau.
Bob: Green Bay
Penny: Arizona
Cassie: Green Bay
Houston Texans (-7) At New England Patriots
On the positive side, New England’s rushing game is solid, delivering good performances in total yards and average per carry. There will be some excitement around the first start for rookie Drake Maye.
After that, things go downhill, and there are questions in all areas. Consider: (1) New England has a solid running attack. (2) The Patriots played the Dolphins in a low-scoring game. (3) Against Miami, New England averaged 7.9 yards per play when they ran the ball. (4) The Pats ran 34 passing plays and 19 rushing plays. In a close game where the ground attack was strong, the Patriots threw the ball almost twice as much as they ran it. While too isolated to be more than curious, that information is concerning when looking at a coaching staff’s ability to view what is working and adjust a plan during a game.
Nico Collins, Houston’s talented wide receiver, should miss this game. It won’t matter.
Bob: Houston
Penny: Houston
Cassie: Houston
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) At New Orleans Saints
Baker Mayfield has looked like a leader with the Buccaneers. Coming off of a tough loss to Atlanta, he has challenged the team to be better. Derek Carr, the New Orleans quarterback, is reportedly out for multiple games with an oblique injury.
Bob: Tampa Bay
Penny: Tampa Bay
Cassie: Tampa Bay
Cleveland Browns At Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
In a normal game, Philadelphia hasn’t played well enough to be favored by this much. This is not a normal game. Cleveland is horrible. Last week against the Commanders, the Browns were behind 24-3 at halftime. In the final stats, the Commanders doubled the Browns in every area of offensive yardage production in that game. Cleveland’s highest output of points so far is 18.
Bob: Philadelphia
Penny: Cleveland
Cassie: Philadelphia
Indianapolis Colts (-1) At Tennessee Titans
There is nothing exciting here. Joe Flacco, who looked tremendous in the loss last week to Jacksonville, is expected to be the backup as Anthony Richardson returns. Tennessee can’t score.
Bob: Indianapolis
Penny: Tennessee
Cassie: Tennessee
Los Angeles (Chargers) (-3) At Denver Broncos
How are the Chargers favored in this game? They are the road team. They scored 20 points total while losing both games ahead of the bye week. Their biggest offensive performance came against the awful Carolina defense, and to date this year, no opponent has put fewer points on the scoreboard against the Panthers than the Chargers. Justin Herbert began practice this week wearing the same brace that has been protecting his injured ankle in recent weeks.
Bob: Denver
Penny: Los Angeles
Cassie: Denver
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) At Las Vegas Raiders
Pittsburgh started with three wins, but has dropped two in a row. They have not demonstrated anything on offense for opponents to fear, offering enough to win and not much else. Russell Wilson is closer to replacing Justin Fields than reports a few weeks ago ever would have predicted.
The trouble is Las Vegas is much worse. There is confusion between Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell at quarterback. The trade rumors surrounding Davante Adams continue to swirl, and his chances of playing before a deal do not appear good.
Bob: Pittsburgh
Penny: Pittsburgh
Cassie: Las Vegas
Atlanta Falcons (-6) At Carolina Panthers
Carolina has surrendered 165 points this season. That’s 33 per game, and no other club has over 140 total points allowed.
Kirk Cousins is coming off of a monster game against the Buccaneers. Though not as high, a good level of play should continue this week as he plays the Panthers.
Bob: Atlanta
Penny: Atlanta
Cassie: Atlanta
Detroit Lions (-3.5) At Dallas Cowboys
Detroit is going to hammer Dallas in this game. There is little to suggest the Cowboys are prepared to offer much resistance.
The Lions are coming off of a bye week. The offense erupted against the Seahawks in their last game, as they played literally perfect in several ways during that effort.
Bob: Detroit
Penny: Dallas
Cassie: Detroit
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) At New York (Giants)
Take Cincinnati in every way in this game. At 1-4 on the year, and facing a 2-3 Giants team coming off of a win, that may seem like a stretch. It’s not. The Giants beat a horrible Cleveland team, and rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. was phenomenal against Seattle. Even with Daniel Jones playing well recently, New York is not a consistent threat on the field.
The Bengals are off to a horrible start, but against the Ravens they showed a competitive fire. Joe Burrow was incredible, firing 5 touchdowns and just shy of 400 yards passing. Tee Higgins had his best game of the year.
A win here will steady Cincinnati. They are in a division where the top spot has two losses, and they still have five games left against divisional opponents. If they can sort out the defensive struggles, they will be a dangerous opponent as the season continues.
Bob: Cincinnati
Penny: Cincinnati
Cassie: Cincinnati
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) At New York (Jets)
There is nothing about New York that can be considered a given. Aaron Rodgers has played one game this year where he resembled anything close to Aaron Rodgers. Remove that Patriots game, and he is averaging 203 yards passing and 1 touchdown each week. New York enters with questions and disruptions following the firing of head coach Robert Saleh.
Buffalo arrives off of two losses. Those games were on the road against expected powers and current division leaders, Baltimore and Houston. Josh Allen hasn’t been brilliant with overwhelming stats, but he is leading a balanced attack and hasn’t turned the ball over. The real secret has been James Cook. Between rushing and receiving, Cook is averaging 16 touches, 100 yards, and a touchdown in each game.
Bob: Buffalo
Penny: New York
Cassie: Buffalo
Odds sourced from USA Today
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