Predicting Auburn's 2024 SEC Basketball Record. Game By Game Analysis.
The beginning of SEC play is right around the corner for the Tigers and looks to be another exciting year for Auburn. There are high expectations nationally and locally as oddsmakers and fans alike hope to see the Tigers bring home another SEC regular season banner.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook Auburn sits at +410 to win the SEC regular season only trailing Tennessee whose odds sit at +280.
Game One: Saturday, Jan 6th, @ Arkansas
Trying to get a read on this Arkansas basketball team is like trying to catch the wind. You may get the team that lost outright to UNC Greensboro or you might get the squad that beat a highly touted Duke Blue Devils squad.
I went back and forth on this game. I do think that Auburn is a better and more complete basketball team however the home factor of playing in Bud Walton Arena is too much for me to pass by.
I think Arkansas will sneak out a close win over the Tigers.
Score Prediction:
Arkansas 75 Auburn 71
Record:
(11-3) (0-1)
Game Two: Tuesday, Jan 9th, Texas A&M
After traveling to Fayetteville, Arkansas Auburn gets their first SEC home game of the year against the Texas A&M Aggies.
The Aggies are led by Junior guard Wade Taylor IV. Taylor averages 17 points per game, 2 rebounds, and 3 assists.
Unfortunately for the Aggies Taylor is the only player I can count on to get his shots against this Auburn defense.
I think Auburn takes this one and gets their first win in conference play.
Score Prediction:
Auburn 88 Texas A&M 79
Record:
(12-3) (1-1)
Game Three: Saturday, Jan 13th, LSU
I'm going to tell it like it is. There isn't some deep analytical analysis needed for this one. Auburn is a good basketball team, LSU is not. They have the second-worst record in the SEC only Vanderbilt has a worse record.
Auburn wins and they win by a lot.
Score Prediction:
Auburn 95 LSU 78
Record:
(13-3) (2-1)
Game Four: Wednesday, Jan 17th, @ Vanderbilt
Auburn is back on the road after two back-to-back home games to play the Commodores.
The separator here between Auburn and Vanderbilt is Auburn's depth. When Auburn brings their subs off the bench there will be very little if any drop-off in scoring and defense. That is going to be the key difference between these two teams.
Auburn wins and they win comfortably.
Score Prediction:
Auburn 92 Vanderbilt 74
Record:
(14-3) (3-1)
Game Five: Saturday, Jan 20th, Ole Miss
The headline of this game will be former Auburn player Allen Flannigan returning to The Jungle for the first time as an Ole Miss player.
There isn't any bad blood between the former Tiger and his old teammates from everything I have seen but I wonder if things could get dicey in this matchup.
Flannigan has been one of the Rebels' best players averaging 16 PPG, 7 RPG, and 3 APG.
Ole Miss also posts the best record in the SEC at the time of this article sitting at 13-0. However, their strength of schedule is nothing to write home about. The Rebels SOS currently sits at 113th, with only South Carolina (121st) and Vanderbilt (159th) sitting lower in the SEC.
Ole Miss is an overrated basketball team. They have feasted on weak opponents all year, which will show in conference play. If Ole Miss finishes higher than the top five in the SEC I will be shocked.
Score Prediction:
Auburn 85 Ole Miss 73
Record:
(15-3) (4-1)
Game Six: Wednesday, Jan 24th, @ Alabama
The Iron Bowl on the hardwood. It was the first matchup between these two teams in the 2023-2024 season.
Alabama is the best-scoring offense in the country averaging 93 PPG. Their offense is led by Senior Guard Mark Sears. Sears averages 19 PPG, 4 RPG, and 3 APG. He's also been automatic from three shooting at a 45% mark.
Now the defense on the other hand is a different story. The Tide's defense has been a problem all year allowing teams to score 75 PPG on average (280th in the country).
If this game was a neutral site I would take Auburn to win. Unfortunately, this game is in Coleman Coliseum where the Tide have a home crowd advantage. I think Alabama takes the first game of the series.
Score Prediction:
Alabama 93 Auburn 88
Record:
(15-4) (4-2)
Game 7: Saturday, Jan 27th, @ Mississippi State
The Bulldogs are a team who have been missing their top player Tolu Smith and have still gone an impressive 11-2.
Smith is set to return for Mississippi State's SEC opener against South Carolina. Mississippi State is one of the better rebounding and defensive teams in the SEC and Smith's presence will only help.
This Bulldog team will be a tough out at home as head coach Chris Jans has a 17-5 record at home.
However, I think the difference here will be the same as I stated in the Vanderbilt game the depth of Auburn's roster. Auburn has guys who could be legitimate starters at other big-name programs and have bought into Auburn's culture.
It's close in the first half but Auburn pulls away in the second half.
Score Prediction:
Auburn 80 Mississippi State 70
Record:
(16-4) (5-2)
Game 8: Wednesday, Jan 31st, Vanderbilt
Auburn meets the Commodores again except they get them in Neville Arena this time.
Auburn has posted one of the best home records in the SEC in Bruce Pearl's tenure. Auburn wins this game behind a big game from Johni Broome.
Score Prediction:
Auburn 91 Vanderbilt 75
Record:
(17-4) (6-2)
Game 9: Saturday, Feb 3rd, @ Ole Miss
As I stated earlier I don't think the Rebels are a contender in the SEC yet.
First-year head coach Chris Beard will have the Rebels competing in the SEC sooner than later but they don't have the depth yet to compete with the top programs in the SEC.
Score Prediction:
Auburn 81 Ole Miss 75
Record:
(18-4) (7-2)
Game 10: Wednesday, Feb 7th, Alabama
Auburn welcomes in the Tide for the second matchup this year.
Alabama won the first game of this year's series back in Coleman Coliseum where I predicted the Tide to win in a slim margin. Alabama has been a significantly better team at home than on the road as they are 0-2 in away games.
I think that the difference here as Auburn gets revenge on their loss from earlier in the season.
Score Prediction:
Auburn 98 Alabama 91
Record:
(19-4) (8-2)
Game 11: Saturday, Feb 10th, @ Florida
Since Bruce Peral has been the head coach of the Auburn Tigers he has struggled against the Florida Gators.
Pearl against Florida has a losing record of 4-8 and is 0-5 playing Florida on the road.
Auburn finally loses after their 4 game-win streak.
Score Prediction:
Florida 84 Auburn 73
Record:
(19-5) (8-3)
Game 12: Wednesday, Feb 14th, South Carolina
Auburn returns to the Jungle after their humbling loss to the Gators.
At the time of this writing, the Gamecocks have the second-best record in the SEC at 12-1 only behind Ole Miss. In the same position as the Rebels, the Gamecocks SOS is bad despite their current one-loss record. Only Vanderbilt has a worse SOS in the SEC.
South Carolina is a team that will not be as good as their nonconference record suggests in SEC play. Auburn gets a bounce-back win at home and this game is never in doubt.
Score Prediction:
Auburn 83 South Carolina 64
Record:
(20-5) (9-3)
Game 13: Saturday, Feb 17th, Kentucky
This game has the potential to play a major factor in who earns the right to win the SEC regular season.
If this game was a neutral site I think this game would be a pick em between these two dominant teams. Fortunately for the Tigers, this game is being played in Neville Arena where they will have the home advantage and have been very successful during Pearls' tenure.
Score Prediction:
Auburn 87 Kentucky 81
Record:
(21-5) (10-3)
Game 14: Saturday, Feb 24th, @ Georgia
If this was a quick turnaround for Auburn traveling to Athens I would be screaming that this is a trap game.
Since Auburn has a week to prepare and recoup after a big win over the Wildcats I am a lot less worried about this game for the Tigers. Auburn leaves Athens with another SEC win.
Score Prediction:
Auburn 79 Georgia 68
Record:
(22-5) (11-3)
Game 15: Wednesday, Feb 28th, @ Tennessee
This is the hardest game on Auburn's schedule.
Tennessee is one of the most well-balanced teams in the conference. They can score anywhere on the court and pressure defensively.
The Tigers can win in Knoxville but it would take a Herculean effort that I just can't see happening.
Score Prediction:
Tennessee 89 Auburn 80
Record:
(22-6) (11-4)
Game 16: Saturday, Mar 2nd, Mississippi State
Auburn gets to run it back against a team that they previously faced back in January.
As I stated earlier I love the Bulldogs' ability to defend and rebound but when you're playing Auburn you have to have a guy who consistently scores and matches what Auburn does offensively.
Auburn completes the sweep of the Bulldogs.
Score Prediction:
Auburn 89 Mississippi State 73
Record:
(23-6) (12-4)
Game 17: Tuesday, Mar 5th, @ Missouri
Missouri basketball has been abysmal to start the season. Tied with LSU (8-5) for the second-worst record in the SEC.
This is a team that has shown to struggle to score the ball consistently and has been even worse defensively.
Auburn's rotation of nine players will give the Tigers fits and will be Missouri's downfall.
Score Prediction:
Auburn 87 Missouri 71
Record:
(24-6) (13-4)
Game 18: Saturday, Mar 9th, Georgia
The last regular season game of the year against the Georgia Bulldogs.
If my prediction for the other conference games for the Tigers is correct then this could be a massive spot for Auburn with potential SEC championship stakes on the line.
Regardless even if this isn't a spot for Auburn to claim another SEC title under Bruce Pearl I expect this Auburn team will be ready to go. Some of these guys last game in this arena and a chance to keep momentum going for the SEC tournament.
Auburn wins and earns another 25 + win season under Bruce Pearl.
Score Prediction:
Auburn 86 Georgia 69
Record:
(25-6) (14-4)
Record Vs. Each Team:
Ole Miss (2-0)
Vanderbilt (2-0)
Mississippi State (2-0)
Georgia (2-0)
Texas A&M (1-0)
LSU (1-0)
Kentucky (1-0)
South Carolina (1-0)
Alabama (1-1)
Florida (0-1)
Tennessee (0-1)
Missouri (0-1)
Arkansas (0-1)
Summary
If my prediction comes to fruition this will be another successful year for the Tigers under Bruce Pearl. Winning 25+ games and putting yourself in a position to win the SEC regular season title.
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