Projecting Stats For The 2023 Patriots "New Look" Offense
Updated: Aug 4, 2023
I recently made my full-season stat projections for all 32 teams with the Yards Per Fantasy template they provide (all league settings can be adjusted). To do this, you pick the number of plays ran for each team, then the percentage of passing plays, which gives the speculated number of passing and rushing plays ran for each team.
After that, you break down the target and carry shares from 100% each and distribute them throughout the players, and the software formulates the number of targets and carries. After that, you add catch %, yards per reception, and yards per carry for the software to calculate the total yards gained. Finally, you add the touchdown numbers, and based on the adjustable scoring settings, the players get a total number of fantasy points and are ranked accordingly.
I have the Patriots running 58 plays per game in 2023 (986 total season-long plays) and a 53% pass rate (31/523 passes and 27/463 rushes per game/season long).
So now that you understand the process of making these projections, also realize that I dove into past seasons, coaching tendencies, and more data to build these numbers. So as much as I understand chaos in football, some things can make educated guesses much more accurate.
We can start with the receivers and tight ends, then running backs, and finally, Mac Jones.
These are the expected projections for the Patriots offensive skill players in the 2023 NFL season.
Patriots Wide Receiver Projections
Since Julian Edelman in 2019, the Patriots have lacked a 1000-yard receiver; Jakobi Meyers got close a couple of times, but no one has stood out as that clear-cut number one. Unfortunately, this trend doesn't go away this season. However, the offense will be much more watchable moving forward.
Juju Smith-Schuster
Juju will have the highest target share of the team at 15.3% for 80 total targets and a 73% catch rate, giving him 58 receptions at 10.4 yards per reception for a total of 607 yards, and I have him for two touchdowns. This isn't a knock on Juju's talent. It's more about the offensive scheme that BoB will be running. Juju will be the most targeted player, which means the wealth is spread out.
DeVante Parker
The Patriots decided to extend Parker after a solid season but don't expect a massive season from him. Parker's number-one option days are over, but he still can be a solid contributor. I have him with an 11.8% target share for 62 targets and a 62% catch rate for 38 total receptions at a whopping 17.1 yards per reception for 654 yards and three touchdowns. Parker will operate as our outside deep threat, stretching the field and playing jump balls.
Kendrick Bourne
Bourne got the shortest end of the stick last year with the "MattyP" experience. Bill O'Brien will be utilizing Bourne in a much more efficient way. In these projections, Bourne demands an 11.1% target share for 58 targets, Bourne's smooth hands and connection with Mac had his catch rate at 78% for 45 receptions, and a 12.1 yards per catch would equal 567 yards adding in another three touchdowns. Kendrick will be an impactful piece of this offense, but no one will dominate this group.
Tyquan Thorton
I wanted to believe that Thorton would take this big step into the offense, but with this many mouths to feed, I think he will struggle to garner the volume he needs to be a true breakout season, but he should certainly have an impact on the offense. I have Tyquan with a 9% target share for 47 targets with a 53% catch rate; this adds up to 25 receptions with 14.5 yards per reception for 361 yards and three touchdowns. I also have Thorton with a 3.7% rushing share of 17 attempts for 9.6 yards a carry, totaling 165 yards and two more rushing touchdowns.
Demario "Pop" Douglas
As of this writing, I have Kayshoun Boutte redshirting this season, but the other late-round rookie has been impressing all camp, He won't have this breakout fantasy season, but he will be good for the Patriots. He should be a consistent presence in the next few seasons. This year I have him with a 3.2% target share for 17 targets at an 85% catch rate for 14 receptions for 9.8 yards per reception, totaling 139 yards. I think most of these 14 receptions will be for first downs, and he will spark a connection with Mac for next season.
Patriots Tight End Projections
You can't just add up the wideout numbers and call it a day, especially with this team; they have two viable pass-catching TEs in Gesicki & Henry. Both of them will be security for Mac Jones.
Mike Gesicki
The replacement for Jonnu Smith should have a much more significant impact on the Patriots' offense. BoB and Gesicki are reuniting from their Penn State days, which means they are familiar with each other. This should give Gesicki a fixed role in this offense. I have him with an 11.4% target share for 60 targets, a 67% catch rate for 40 receptions at 14.9 yards per reception, 595 yards, and a team-leading five touchdowns. MikeyG will be the red zone threat and control the contested catch market of the Patriots.
Hunter Henry
Henry has arguably been the most consistent offensive player on the Patriots since the rebuild started, I think he still finds a role here, but it's not the one we all envisioned when he first signed. I have Henry collecting an 8.1% target share for 42 targets and a 75% catch rate for 32 receptions at 11.8 yards per reception, totaling 375 yards and three touchdowns. It's not eye-popping, but he will be a valued member of the offense.
Patriots Running Back Projections
I know the Patriots are interested in Zeke and have had talks with Dalvin, but these are projections based on who is on the roster now. As it stands now, we have Mondre, Monty, Kevin Harris, and Pierre Strong. The old system loved mixing and matching their backs; I expect this to happen again this season.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Mondre may be the best offensive player on the team and the only viable fantasy asset to draft this coming August. Even still, I expect his passing-down role to regress slightly. I have Stevenson for 59.6% of the rushing share, which equals 276 carries at 4.9 a carry for 1353 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. I have Mondre accounting for 11.9% of the target share for 62 targets and 81% catch rate, which would be 50 receptions at 5.7 yards per reception for another 287 yards and two receiving touchdowns. He's in for a workhorse-rushing role for sure.
Pierre Strong
Strong had a disappointing rookie year, and with the backfield rotation, I find it hard to believe he pops this year, barring injury. I have him with a 9% rushing share for 42 attempts and 5.9 yards per carry for 246 yards & three touchdowns on the season. He should add about a 2.3% target share which would be 12 targets at a 72% catch rate. Strong would have nine receptions and 13 yards a catch for 113 yards receiving. Im not sure if this type of usage will ever produce at the level he should.
Ty Montgomery
I had to go in and adjust my projections after watching his work live at camp; Montgomery will inhabit the James White role and take the ceiling off of Rhamondre's pass-catching. I have Monty taking 8.6% of the rushing share for 40 attempts at 3.9 yards per attempt for 155 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Then I have him adding a 12.9% target share for 67 targets, a 78% catch rate for 53 receptions at 4.7 yards per reception, totaling 247 yards and four receiving touchdowns. Monty will be very active among the backs and the receivers.
Kevin Harris
Harris will be Mondre's direct substitute when he gets tired; the little I have seen from Harris I've enjoyed. However, the issue is that Mondre is one of the league's best backs, and there are two other backs to eat up the secondary work. After Stevenson, the backfield distribution looks more like the pass catchers target share. I have Kevin Harris with an 8% rushing share for 37 carries and 5.3 yards per carry for 195 rushing yards on the year. Harris is going to be a solid sub for Stevenson.
Mac Jones Projections
So that was a lot of numbers; you don't have to add them because I can do it for you! I have Mac projected for 364/507 for a 71.3 completion percentage for 7.7 yards per attempt, putting him at 3925 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Mac also carried a 9.4% rushing share at 2.5 yards per carry for 109 yards and 1 rushing touchdown. This will be the step we all hoped Mac would take last year. He will spread the ball all around and be a candidate for comeback player of the year.
End Of Rant
Mac had a horrible previous season, but he was practically working with one arm tied behind his back. A QB needs one of these three things to succeed: an elite Oline, an elite pass catcher, or an elite scheme. Mac had none of those things last year. He should have serviceable players at Oline and WR this year, but the system and playcalling will significantly improve.
Do You Agree With My Projections
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