Running Backs Poised For An Absolute Breakout in the 2023 NFL Season
Updated: Jun 28, 2023
The running back position has been greatly devalued in the NFL.
Analytics are becoming more and more important in professional football. NFL teams are prioritizing premium position players on a more consistent basis, through not only the draft process but in free agency.
There is still significant value in having a superstar in the backfield in football. That being said, analytics show that the running game is a blend of fantastic blocking and solid ballcarrier prowess, of which the former is much rarer than the litany of talent the running back position tends to have.
Tony Pollard, RB – Dallas Cowboys
This one might seem like an obvious choice.
Dallas Cowboys fans were clamoring for Pollard to receive a bigger role in the 2022 NFL Season. He received just 193 carries on the ground, in comparison to since released running back Ezekiel Elliot’s 231. With those opportunities, Pollard was electric. The former fourth-round selection had 1,007 yards and a PFF rushing grade of 88.9. He forced 41 missed tackles and had 31 runs of more than ten yards. For the second year in a row, Pollard seemed to be outshining superstar running back Ezekiel Elliot.
Pollard now enters the 2023 NFL Season as the primary running back on a Dallas Cowboys team that has always valued the ground attack. He figures to be a feature in both the run and pass game, as he had 50 targets in 2022, which he converted into 39 catches and 371 yards.
Furthermore, Pollard has been extremely reliable with the football. He has had just three fumbles in his NFL career and has achieved an 88.9 or higher overall PFF grade in each of the last two seasons. With an increased workload, Pollard will likely be a running back that flirts with the elusive 2,000 scrimmage-yard mark.
Projection: 259 attempts, 1,347 yards, 8 TD rushing – 57 catches, 509 yards, 5 TD receiving.
Travis Etienne, RB – Jacksonville Jaguars
This one just feels inevitable at this point.
Etienne missed his entire rookie season to injury. In 2022, he returned with a vengeance, flashing the explosiveness that made him a first-round pick in 2021. The Clemson Tiger prospect had 221 rushing attempts in the 2022 NFL Season and racked up 1,120 yards on the ground. He forced an incredible 57 missed tackles and had 26 explosive runs of more than ten yards.
Etienne also proved to be a solid weapon in the passing game. He was targeted 43 times, catching a total of 35 balls for 316 yards. Although Etienne dropped three passes and had five fumbles, he ended his 2022 campaign with a rushing grade of 79.1 from PFF and was ninth in the NFL in total rushing yards.
Etienne’s explosiveness is apparent. Another year removed from his foot injury sustained prior to his rookie season, 2023 presents an exceptional opportunity for him. The Jaguars can use Etienne in a variety of ways as a complete offensive weapon. Look for the AFC South powerhouse to get him more than 300 touches this year. The Jaguars’ success will be contingent on them being able to give the ball to their playmakers to make things happen on offense.
Etienne is one of those weapons that can make magic happen.
Projection: 234 attempts, 1,187 yards, 4 TD rushing – 72 catches, 665 yards, 2 TD receiving.
J.K. Dobbins, RB – Baltimore Ravens
Speaking of injuries.
J.K. Dobbins has had a really tough time in the NFL thus far. The Ravens’ running back has been plagued by persistent knee injuries, appearing in just 23 games in three years. He has flashed fantastic potential as a runner but has just not been able to stay on the field.
Dobbins has a terrific opportunity to solidify his standing as the clear RB1 on a modest running back depth chart. He has shown the ability to be a sensational weapon in his rookie season, where he averaged an absurd 6.0 yards per rushing attempt. Dobbins had 805 total yards on the ground and he scored nine times, accumulating a solid 3.47 yards after contact per carry.
With the installation of a more balanced offense under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, J.K. Dobbins may have more room to work his magic. If he can stay healthy, he has every chance of expanding on his promising rookie performance. While the Ravens’ staff may be reluctant to increase his workload, Dobbins has shown his ability to make the most of limited opportunities.
If he can hit on his potential talent, he will add a devastating impact next to Lamar Jackson in the run game.
Projection: 156 attempts, 890 yards, 12 TD rushing – 23 catches, 219 yards, 1 TD receiving.
Let us know on our socials if you agree with these three breakout candidates, and if there is anyone else the NFL should be on notice for. And, don’t forget to follow Stadium Rant for all of your sporting news.