Ryan Pressly: Broken Or Just Unlucky?

On July 17, 2018, the Houston Astros devised a trade with the Minnesota Twins to acquire right-handed pitcher Ryan Pressly for outfielder Gilberto Celestino and right-handed pitcher Jorge Alcala.

He was used mainly as a setup guy, but he had closer potential with his mid to upper-90s fastball, a high-80s to low-90s slider, and a curveball that displays one of the highest spin rates for a breaker in all of Major League Baseball.

He even received an All-Star nod a year later.

The downside was that he was blocked by Roberto Osuna, who the Astros acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays the same season.

In 92 innings with the Astros Osuna had this ridiculous line:

2.45 ERA 0.87 WHIP 95 K 15 BB

Osuna logged 38 saves in 44 chances in 2019. The 38 saves were the best in the American League. He was well on his way to being one of the highest-paid relievers in MLB history.

But 2020 happened.

A shortened season due to COVID-19 that came with a whole bunch of weirdness. Osuna only pitched 4.1 innings due to injury and never played for the Astros or in the MLB ever again. He is now pitching in Mexico where he is thriving in his own right.

But that opened the door for the pitcher from Dallas.

Pouncing On The Opportunity

Pressly became the replacement closer in 2020 after Osuna went down and did not look back.

From 2020 to 2023 Pressly was considered one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. Over those four seasons in 198.2 innings, he had a 3.06 ERA with 102 saves in 118 chances.

He also struck out 249 batters and only walked 49. This was a pitcher who not only just had six saves before 2020, but also struggled in those situations. He only converted 24% (6 out of 25) of his save chances. That was his past and he became a key piece to getting the Astros to the postseason in all of those seasons.

When it became playoff time, he was nearly unhittable.

In 31 appearances he had a 0.79 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP. Only three earned runs allowed. 45 batters were struck out. That means more batters were heading back to the bench than they were getting on base. He converted 14 saves.

In 2021 he grabbed his second All-Star nod and was considered for World Series MVP in 2022 in a postseason where he did not allow an earned run whatsoever.

He regressed a bit in 2023 with a 3.58 ERA but still converted 31 saves in 37 chances. At the time he seemed to have most definitively locked down that spot in the Houston bullpen.

But the past is the past. And in 2024, Ryan Pressly has regressed. He is also no longer the closer since the Astros signed left-handed pitcher Josh Hader in the off-season to a five-year, $95 million deal to become the new closer.

Most Astro fans and media wonder if Pressly is no longer the elite reliever he was over the last four years. The idea of no longer being the closer getting to Pressly has been a theory floating around.

After all, he currently has a 5.24 ERA in 22.1 innings and has blown four saves. Even in tied games, he has had trouble, including most recently on Sunday against the Twins that cost the Astros the 3-game series.

The Numbers

Earned run average has been a statistic in baseball since 1912. It is the most common way to evaluate pitchers. However, it is not the end all be all. ERA does not tell the story of how the runs are scored, the situation, and other small details.

Advancements in analytics over the past decade have helped teams understand players more and the Astros were one of the big users of analytics under former GM Jeff Lunhow.

Analytics have come under starch criticism in those years due to their reliance on "luck stats" and not the eye test stats.

Thanks to Baseball Savant the public has access to analytics and other features to make their analysis on players. The website allows users access to basic stats as well.

The Analysis

Ryan Pressly's ERA is 5.01 with his WHIP being a 1.54. That is not good for a reliever who is supposed to be a reliable setup pitcher.

But digging deeper, interesting numbers indicate that number shouldn't be that high.

FIP, or fielding independent pitching, is an eye test stat that acts like ERA but goes in a different direction. It only keeps track of three things that a pitcher can control, which are strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Defense is taken out of the equation.

Pressly's FIP is 2.70. That is a 2.31-point difference between that and his ERA. From 2020 to 2023 the average differential was just 0.42.

That means that Pressly is still effective at striking out batters. His 11.6 K/9 can also back that up.

Looking more into the sabermetric world there are bounds of misfortune when expected stats and luck stats are taken into account. One major note to consider for all these analytical numbers is that they take in the type of balls that are put in play. Whether it was hit hard, the launch angle was desirable, and many other factors.

Pressly's expected ERA, or xERA, is 3.66. Not great but is still good for how his season is going with the 5.01 ERA.

To add insult to injury his expected batting average, or xBA, for opponents is .240 while opponents are batting .298 off of him. So hitters are being able to put balls in play and they are getting on base.

BABIP or, batting average on balls in play, is another luck stat that can be taken into account for Pressly. His BABIP currently is a staggering .394. According to a page about it on MLB's website, pitchers that have a high percentage will typically regress to the mean.

So why is this happening? The answer is simple. Not missing barrels.

Pressly allows an average exit velocity of 90.2 mph. That would put him among the 19th percent tile of the league which is not good. His 44.8 Hard-Hit% is also among the worst at the 11th percent tile. Hard hits are balls in play that exit off the bat at 95 mph or more.

Verdict

One thing about baseball that no other sport in America relies on more is luck. There is a reason why hitters are highly praised for only getting a hit 30% of the time.

In baseball, a team can be a world-beater one day. But then the next day the team is just an average baseball team. An average baseball team can also turn into a world-beater just as quickly.

A player can look like a Hall of Famer one year then be bad the next and vice versa.

There is a reason why analytics are the way to go in baseball. Teams take in all these numbers and formulas as much as they can to try and understand luck.

Numbers do not always have to agree with each other. In Pressly's case, it causes all sorts of confusion and frustration not just among fans and media, but especially with Pressly himself.

With his résumé and also the fact it is still early June, Ryan Pressly has a lot of time to turn it around.

The analytics say he can while the eye test says he can't.

The fact the Astros are still willing to roll him out there in the eighth inning and other high-leverage situations show they still have faith. First-year Astros manager Joe Espada relayed the unluckiness that Pressly is experiencing on Sunday.

The analytics back up Espada.

So for Astros fans and media, Ryan Pressly seems to be just an unfortunate victim of the game of baseball.

Time will tell and time is what Ryan Pressly needs. If he is on point, then the Astros are one step closer to being the world-beaters they can be.

Pressly even got an opportunity on Tuesday night to grab his first save of the season on a night the Astros desperately needed him to. And he delivered.

A redemption outing that could spark Pressly to return to his old form.

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