Saquon Barkley Eagerly Signs with Buffalo Bills in 2023
Saquon Barkley will be 26 in February and a free agent in 2023. He will be looking for a new contract, and it is possible that he will be looking to leave New York to join a Super Bowl-contending team. Von Miller dropped his name as a trade candidate on a recent edition of the Richard Sherman Podcast, and why not come to Buffalo?
Saquon Barkley’s Current Contract
Saquon is in the last year of his rookie deal. His contract is worth $7,217,000 and is fully guaranteed this year. He is set to become a free agent in 2023 and will be a hot commodity and highly sought after in free agency. The future value of his next contract will depend on how he does this season and if he can stay healthy.
Injury History
Since his rookie year, Saquon Barkley has had his fair share of injuries. Some of those injuries were only temporary setbacks, while others were season-ending.
Even though his availability has been less than stellar, you could argue that these injuries have been mostly fluke accidents that could have happened to anyone. Stepping on a player and spraining your ankle or a late hit out of bounds could certainly happen to any player.
Saquon is by no means “injury prone.” He has had a string of bad luck starting after his rookie season but looks to be back with a vengeance this season.
Career Stats For Saquon Barkley
In the 48 games he has played since being drafted in 2018, Barkley’s stats are:
Rushing Attempts: 743
Rushing Yards: 3400
Rushing TDs: 21
Receptions: 205
Receiving yards: 1589
Receiving TDs: Eight
These totals would surely be much more impressive had he been able to play four complete seasons. If he had not missed any time, his career stats would look something like this:
Rushing Attempts: 1040
Rushing Yards: 5200
Rushing TDs: 43
Receptions: 300
Receiving yards: 2400
Receiving TDs: 28
Context-wise, his career would show similar stats to LaDainian Tomlinson. That is how special Saquon Barkley is.
What Would Saquon Barkley’s Contract Look Like?
In order to give an accurate prediction of what he might be paid in Buffalo in 2023, we need to look at high-performing players of similar age and newly signed contracts as well as the Bills’ projected cap room.
2023 Projected Salary Cap
NFL: $230 Million
Bills Cap Space: $Five and a half Million
Do not overreact to the Bills’ limited cap space as we have all seen how Beane can masterfully manipulate the cap when needed. Restructuring, trades, releases, Brandon Beane can figure out how to get the players he wants on the field, and the Bills players have shown that they are willing to work with him. “The cap is crap” and we will be able to afford Saquon Barkley if we want.
Similar Aged Players On New Contract
Here are three high-performing players that were of a similar age to Saquon Barkley when they signed their contract, and who have been RB1s for their respective teams.
Leonard Fournette (2022): 27 years old, 3 year/$21M = $7M Average Annual Salary (AAS)
Aaron Jones (2021): 26 years old, 4 year/$48M = 12M AAS
James Conner (2022): 26 years old, 3 year/$21M = $7M AAS
Saquon’s Contract With The Buffalo Bills
So what would Saquon’s contract look like if he makes Buffalo his future home?
Brandon Beane has a history of drafting running backs, not paying running backs, but Saquon is a game changer, and he is 100% going to consider chasing Barkley.
Saquon Barkley will demand a good paycheck but will also want to play for a team that needs a top back like himself to put them over the edge and win the Super Bowl in 2023.
Ok, enough rambling, here is what I think the contract will look like based on the three contracts we see above plus the Bills expected cap space:
Four years with possible outs after the 2024 season
$40M with $20M guaranteed
Signing Bonus $6M
$10M AAS
How Do We Do This?
The Bills will have a lot of work to do in order to make this contract work, but two things they could do in order to make it happen are:
Restructure the contracts of Josh Allen, Tre’Davious White, Matt Milano, and/or Dion Dawkins
Trade or release Isaiah McKenzie, Siran Neal, or other players whose contract expires in 2024/25 with minimal dead cap.
Summary
Saquon Barkley is an absolute stud and one of the most talented running backs the modern-era NFL has seen. He’s big, he’s fast, and he’s agile. He is also exactly what Buffalo needs to complete this already star-studded roster.
Brandon Beane and the Buffalo Bills should listen to Von Miller, and do whatever they can to entice Saquon Barkley to come to Western New York and sign with the only actual team that plays in New York State.
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