Previewing Week 12 of the SEC: Are Top Teams On Upset Alert?
We finished Week 12 with a record of 5-3, bringing us to a 58% season record. SEC's Week 12 features exciting matchups and brings us closer to Rivalry Week in Week 13. Let's take a closer look at our selections and forecasts.
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SEC 11AM Kickoffs
Chattanooga at #8 Alabama
Game Information:
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium
Channel: ESPN+, SECN+
Chattanooga vs Alabama Odds:
Spread: Alabama (-45.5), Chattanooga (+45.5)
O/U: 48.5
ML: Alabama -100,000 Chattanooga +8000
Season Performances:
Season Records: Alabama (9-1), Chattanooga (7-3)
ATS: Alabama (7-3), Chattanooga (2-1) O/U: Alabama (7-2-1), Chattanooga (2-1)
Home/Away: Alabama (5-1H), Chattanooga (4-1A)
Team Streak: Alabama (W8), Chattanooga (L10)
What to Bet and Why:
Alabama is expected to use their upcoming game as a warm-up for the Iron Bowl. However, the current spread of 45.5 is significantly large and it does not make me feel comfortable to bet on Alabama to cover. Similarly, I wouldn't bet on Chattanooga to cover the +45 spread either.
Instead of looking at the point spread, we'll focus on the over/under of 50.5. I expect Alabama to score close to that number alone.
To reach this number, we don't require much offensive production from Chattanooga.
Best Bet:
Over 50.5
UL Monroe at #9 Ole Miss
Game Information:
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Channel: SECN
UL Monroe vs Ole Miss Odds:
Spread: Ole Miss (-37.5), UL Monroe (+37.5)
O/U: 61.5
ML: Ole Miss -100,000, UL Monroe +8000
Season Performances:
Season Records: Ole Miss (8-2), UL Monroe (2-8)
ATS: Ole Miss (6-3-1), UL Monroe (4-6) O/U: Ole Miss (5-5), UL Monroe (5-5)
Home/Away: Ole Miss (6-0 H), UL Monroe (0-4)
Team Streak: Ole Miss (L1), UL Monroe (L7)
What to Bet and Why:
I'm not comfortable betting 37.5 points, it seems too risky. Instead, I'd like to focus on the over/under, which is currently set at 61.5. I like this number because I believe Ole Miss will score between 40-50 points in this game, which means that UL Monroe won't need to do much offensively to meet the over.
Best Bet:
O 61.5
Southern Miss at Mississippi State
Game Information:
Location: Davis Wade Stadium
Channel: ESPN+, SECN+
Southern Miss vs Mississippi State
Spread: Miss St -13.5 (-118), Southern Miss +13.5 (-104)
O/U: 46.5 (-110)
ML: Miss St -600, Southern Miss +430
Season Performances:
Season Records: Miss St (4-6), Southern Miss (3-7)
ATS: Miss St (2-8), Southern Miss (4-6) O/U: Miss St (5-4-1), Southern Miss (7-3)
Home/Away: Miss St (3-3 H), Southern Miss (1-4 A)
Team Streak: Miss St (L3), Southern Miss (W2)
What to Bet and Why:
I always support a team after they fire their head coach. The interim coach Greg Knox will bring renewed energy to the Bulldogs, and I believe they will play hard. Therefore, I'm taking the Bulldogs with the points.
Best Bet:
Mississippi State -13.5
SEC 2:30PM Kickoffs
Game Information:
Location: Neyland Stadium
Channel: CBS
Georgia vs Tennessee Odds:
Spread: Georgia -10.5 (-110), Tennessee +10.5 (-110)
O/U: 58.5 (-110)
ML: Georgia -465, Tennessee +350
Season Performances:
Season Records: Georgia (10-0), Tennessee (7-3)
ATS: Georgia (4-6), Tennessee (6-4) O/U: Georgia (6-4), Tennessee (5-4-1)
Home/Away: Georgia (2-0 A), Tennessee (5-0 H)
Team Streak: Georgia (W10), Tennessee (L1)
What to Bet and Why:
Georgia is crushing their way to the SEC Championship. With All-American tight end Brock Bowers back in the mix, their already strong offense is even stronger. They won by 35 points against Ole Miss despite being favored by just 11 points. It's safe to say that Georgia will win this game and cover the spread.
Best Bet:
Georgia -10.5
SEC 3:00PM Kickoffs
New Mexico State at Auburn
Game Information:
Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium
Channel: SECN
New Mexico St at Auburn Odds:
Spread: Auburn -23.5 (-110), New Mexico St +23.5 (-110)
O/U: 48.5 (-110)
ML: Auburn (-3000), New Mexico St (+1200)
Season Performances:
Season Records: Auburn (6-4), New Mexico St (8-3)
ATS: Auburn (5-5), New Mexico St (8-2-1) O/U: Auburn (4-5-1), New Mexico St (4-7)
Home/Away: Auburn (3-2 H), New Mexico St (4-2)
Team Streak: Auburn (W3), New Mexico St (W6)
What to Bet and Why:
Auburn's offense has been hot lately, scoring over 30 points in their last two games. However, they may overlook this game after securing bowl eligibility and looking ahead to next week's Iron Bowl. I predict an Auburn win, but New Mexico State will cover the spread.
Best Bet:
New Mexico St +23.5
SEC 6:30PM Kickoffs
Florida at #14 Missouri
Game Information:
Location: Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field
Channel: ESPN
Florida vs Missouri Odds:
Spread: Missouri -11.5 (-110), Florida +11.5 (-110)
O/U: 58.5 (-110)
ML: Missouri -450, Florida +340
Season Performances:
Season Records: Missouri (8-2), Florida (5-5)
ATS: Missouri (7-3), Florida (3-7)
O/U: Missouri (6-4), Florida (6-3-1)
Home/Away: Missouri (5-1 H), Florida (1-3 A)
Team Streak: Missouri (W1), Florida (L3)
What to Bet and Why:
Missouri dominated Tennessee and I think Brady Cook and Burden III will lead them to victory against Florida. Florida won't be able to keep up. Missouri to win and cover.
Best Bet:
Missouri -11.5
FIU at Arkansas
Game Information:
Location: Razorback Stadium
Channel: ESPNU
FIU vs Arkansas Odds:
Spread: Arkansas -29.5 (-110), FIU +29.5 (-110)
O/U: 50.5 (-110)
ML: Arkansas -8000, FIU +2200
Season Performances:
Season Records: Arkansas (3-7), FIU (4-6)
ATS: Arkansas (5-5), FIU (4-6)
O/U: Arkansas (6-3-1), FIU (4-6)
Home/Away: Arkansas (2-3 H), FIU (2-3 A)
Team Streak: Arkansas (L1), FIU (L2)
What to Bet and Why:
Arkansas seems deflated and 29.5 points is too much for their struggling team. I think they'll win but FIU will cover.
Best Bet:
FIU +29.5
Kentucky at South Carolina
Game Information:
Location: Williams-Brice Stadium
Channel: SECN
Kentucky vs South Carolina Odds:
Spread: Kentucky -1.5 (-110), South Carolina +1.5 (-110)
O/U: 53.5 (-110)
ML: Kentucky -122, South Carolina +102
Season Performances:
Season Records: Kentucky (6-4), South Carolina (4-6)
ATS: Kentucky (5-5), South Carolina (5-5)
O/U: Kentucky (7-3), South Carolina (5-5)
Home/Away: Kentucky (2-1 A), South Carolina (4-1 H)
Team Streak: Kentucky (L2), South Carolina (W2)
What to Bet and Why:
Kentucky will win behind a strong performance from Ray Davis, who will be able to take advantage of the team's ability to run the ball and push the line of scrimmage.
Best Bet:
Kentucky -1.5
SEC 7:00PM Kickoffs
Georgia State at LSU
Game Information:
Location: Tiger Stadium
Channel: ESPN2
Georgia State vs LSU Odds:
Spread: LSU -30.5 (-110), Georgia St +30.5 (-110)
O/U: 71.5 (-110)
ML: LSU -6998, Georgia St +2000
Season Performances:
Season Records: LSU (7-3), Georgia State (6-4)
ATS: LSU (6-4), Georgia State (5-5)
O/U: LSU (10-0), Georgia State (5-5)
Home/Away: LSU (5-0 H), Georgia State (3-1 A)
Team Streak: LSU (W1), Georgia State (L3)
What to Bet and Why:
If it ain't broken, don't fix it. LSU has a perfect record of hitting the over in all 10 games. As long as they maintain this streak, I will continue to bet on it.
Best Bet:
O 71.5
Lock of the Week:
I'm gonna ride this trend until it throws me off. You know where I'm going with this. Give me the over of 71.5 in the Georgia State/LSU game.
I hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed writing this. I hope my picks can help you have a successful week of betting!
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