Small Ball Renaissance: Why Is Bunting Making A Comeback?
Baseball analytics is clear about bunting in Major League Baseball: Don’t. A Sabermetrics believer on Reddit wrote,
“In nearly all situations, bunting actually lowers your run probability, and even bunting for a hit has a lower probability of the hitter reaching first than a straight up at bat.”
Here’s the math: With a runner on first and nobody out, the team is expected to score 0.936 runs in that inning.
With a runner on second base and one out, the team is expected to score 0.713 runs in the inning. That’s assuming the bunt is successful. Managers saw the numbers and, for the most part, removed bunting from the game.
Year | |
|---|---|
2011 | 1,667 |
2016 | 1,025 |
2017 | 925 |
2021 | 766 |
2022 | 390 |
Despite the math, bunting is making a comeback. Teams using the bunt say it’s not about automatically bunting a runner into scoring position.
Bunting was banished long before the National League adopted the designated hitter in 2023, but that seemed to be another nail in its coffin. In the 1988 season, the 26 teams combined for 1,630 sacrifice bunts, an average of .39 per game. In the 2023 season, there were 429 sacrifice bunts in Major League Baseball, or .09 bunts per game.
Several Teams Are Prioritizing The Bunt
The Cincinnati Reds are one of those teams focusing more time on bunting. For the past two seasons, they have brought Brett Butler, one of the game’s greatest bunters, to spring training to teach players the art of laying down a bunt.
“Speed. Running the bases. A lot of different things,” said manager David Bell. “Bunting can be a big part of that. It fits our personnel now."
Before this season, the Phillies taught their players how to bunt in spring training. “I think there were a lot of situations last year where we asked guys to bunt,” said Phillies manager Rob Thomson, “but they couldn’t get a sacrifice down… So we’re doing that with a lot of different guys.”
Thomson said he’s even having his good contact hitters learn how to bunt on a team that averages more than one home run per game.;
Why Are Teams Bunting Again?
Last season, the Arizona Diamondbacks had the baseball world talking about bunts during the playoffs. Arizona led baseball in bunts and was the National League Champions.
“It's something that gets neglected in this day and age of slug,” Diamondbacks bench coach Jeff Banister said. “But it became evident to us that it was something we needed to get back into our skill set. We felt like our guys were athletic enough to do it.”
“I think in those situations, what might seem like you’re sacrificing one or two percentage points in win probability by giving up an out, there’s decent reason to believe you’re actually gaining it because your likelihood of success in that situation is significantly higher by setting somebody else up or staying out of the double play, stuff like that.”
Sometimes, A Bunt Can Change A Game
Brewers slugger and .300 hitter Christian Yelich dropped a bunt single in a game against the Cincinnati Reds in June. Reds center fielder TJ Friel took notice in a game against Boston later that week. “I was talking to (first-base coach Collin Cowgill) earlier today about the Yelich play in Milwaukee and how it’s a really heads-up play keeping guys on their toes,” Friedl said.
In the bottom of the seventh Friedl laid down a squeeze bunt that scored a run. Boston should have known he could bunt. He led baseball in 2023 with 17 bunt hits, and it still worked.
In 2023, Kansas City Royal Freddy Fermin laid down a squeeze bunt against the Chicago White Sox to score a run and win with a rare walk-off bunt.
Reds manager David Bell said, “It’s a part of what we see as a way for us to win games now.”
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