Tee Higgins Could Be The Ultimate WR2 In Fantasy
Tee Higgins suffered two different injuries in 2023: a rib injury in Week 4 and a Hamstring injury in Week 10. These injuries forced Higgins to miss a total of five games, but he also played under 60% of the snaps in three games. All this led to Higgins having his worst statistical season in the NFL so far. Higgins finally signed his franchise tag on June 15th this off-season, ending the contract disputes between Higgins and the Bengals.
It seems unlikely that Higgins will play in Cincinnati next season, but for now, he will still be receiving Joe Burrow's passes. With Higgins playing for a contract and little changes made to the offense around him, Higgins should be able to return to the numbers we are used to seeing him post, so long as he can avoid injury.
That has been Higgins's most significant red flag, though, as he has played just one full season of his four in the NFL (2022). And even in that season, he had 4 games where he played under 30% of the snaps due to injury. When Higgins is on the field, though, he always has a chance to give a genuinely impactful performance for your fantasy team. Last year, in the 9 games that Higgins played over 60% of the snaps, he delivered 4 WR1 performances and had 20+ points in 3 of those 4 games (half-PPR formats).
Higgins had similar top-end finishes in 2022. He played 13 games with at least a 30% snap share, 9 games inside the top 24, and 4 finishes inside the 6 Wide Receivers. In those 13 games, Higgins averaged 13.9 points per game in half-ppr formats, which would have ranked him 8th among Wide Receivers with at least 13 games played. The one concern with Higgins is that he is used primarily as an intermediate to deep threat.
Joe Burrow is unquestionably a top Quarterback in this league, but he has struggled the past two seasons with passes traveling 10+ yards downfield. In 2023, Burrow completed just 51.5% of his passes that traveled between 10 - 19 yards downfield.
That was 24th of 31 quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts in that range. Burrow had the 5th lowest Yards Per Attempt at the 10 - 19 yard range and threw just 3 touchdowns while throwing 5 interceptions. He also completed just 33.3% of his pass attempts that traveled 20+ yards downfield. That was 28th of 38 Quarterbacks with at least 20 pass attempts in that range.
This can partially be attributed to Burrow's calf injury during training camp, which evidently affected his performance early on. Higgins is a risky pick with his consistent injury history, but his ADP has significantly dropped from last season. In 2022, Higgins was selected on average with the 30th overall pick and was WR14 off the board. This season, FantasyPros has his ADP sitting at 53rd overall and WR29 off the board.
Our consensus projections for Higgins in the 2024 season would be: 78 receptions, 1051 yards, 7 touchdowns through the air and 0 carries for 0 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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