Terry McLaurin Fantasy Ceiling Depends On The QB Play
Terry McLaurin heads into the 2024 season hoping to finally have a Quarterback who can help propel him to his first WR1 finish in half-PPR formats. Since joining the Commanders in 2019, McLaurin has had 11 different Quarterbacks throw him a pass, with incoming Jayden Daniels being the 12th. Of the Quarterbacks McLaurin has played with thus far, Daniels' skillset arguably pairs the best with McLaurin's. McLaurin has had an aDOT in the top 10 in 3 of his 5 years in the NFL (minimum of 70 targets).
Jayden Daniels moved as early in the draft as he was based on his rushing prowess and his accuracy passing downfield. In 2023, Daniels was 1st in completion percentage (63.6%), yards per attempt (24.5), touchdowns (22), and interceptions (0) on pass attempts at least 20 yards downfield. McLaurin has been in the top 13 Wide Receivers in targets of 20+ air yards in 4 of his 5 seasons. The Commanders did add two receiving options through the draft in WR Luke McCaffrey and TE Ben Sinnott.
They also added veteran TE Zach Ertz and RB Austin Ekeler through Free Agency. None of these players is bound to take on a large target share in this offense, but they will eat into some of McLaurin's work, especially with Kliff Kingsbury taking over as Offensive Coordinator.
In Kingsbury's time as the Cardinals' Head Coach, there was just one season when the most targeted Wide Receiver on their team had a target share of over 21%. This is in part due to injuries and suspensions that occurred, but the ball tends to get spread out in Kingsbury's offense despite him no longer running an air raid offense.
That is not good news for McLaurin, who already has consistency issues. McLaurin was the WR42 or worse in 8 of his 17 games played last season (half-ppr). This is primarily due to sub-par Quarterback play, as McLaurin's targets were only deemed catchable on 65.4% of his targets. That ranked 76th in the league last year. For yet another season, it will be tough to see if McLaurin's talent is enough to overcome all the changes around him.
He will play alongside a rookie Quarterback while they both learn a new offense. Terry McLaurin's current ADP is 6.02, and he is WR30 off the board. He will be a great WR3/flex option when you choose the right week, but know that on the weeks you choose wrong, he can cost you a week as well.
Our consensus projections for McLaurin in the 2024 season would be: 84 receptions, 1134 yards, 6 touchdowns through the air and 0 carries for 0 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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