The Atlanta Hawks Future: Where Do We Go From Here?
Just 3 years removed from an Eastern Conference Finals run, the Atlanta Hawks look like a completely different team... and not in a good way
The DejounTrae Fit
Or should I say non-fit? Trae Young and Dejounte Murray are both good basketball players, but they do not fit well together at all. Both are ball-dominant players, and Trae’s refusal to learn how to play off-ball hinders the duo’s ceiling. The Atlanta Hawks first-round series against the Miami Heat in 2022 exposed 3 major flaws in the Hawks' roster:
No primary secondary scorer (Bogi can score in bunches but not consistently)
No secondary playmaker
Terrible front-court defense
Now part of the issue for number 3 was Trae Young. He is by no means a good defender. In the 2022 off-season, Atlanta traded for a young and upcoming player: the San Antonio Spurs’ Dejounte Murray. Murray was just coming off a breakout season in which he put up: 21.1 points per game, 8.3 rebounds per game, 9.2 assists per game, and a whopping 2.0 (TWO!) steals per game on his way to being the NBA’s steal leader. He did not make an all-NBA defensive team, but the young guard certainly should have.
Now a playmaking guard, who CAN play all-NBA level defense and averages 20+ points per game, does that not sound like the answer to ALL the Hawks’ prayers? To most fans it most certainly felt like that, however, we could not have been further from the truth.
Now let’s start with the positive. In the 4 years without Dejounte, Trae averaged 0.9 steals per game, in the 2 years with Dejounte Murray he has averaged 1.2 steals per game. In the 2023 playoffs, he averaged 30 points, 10 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. In fact, Trae even had a game-winning steal against the Golden State Warriors last year.
That is the only positive that has stemmed from the pair playing with one another. Ironically enough, Dejounte has regressed as a defender since his Spur days. Out of EVERY guard in the entire NBA, only 11 (ELEVEN!!) had a worse defensive rating than Dejounte this year. Even Trae Young had a better rating.
Somehow the Front Court defense got worse trading in Kevin Huerter for an all-NBA level defender. Dejounte Murray is lazy on the perimeter, hardly ever closing out on shooters, and gets bodied far too often in the post. Malachi Flynn (role player) dropped 50 points on him and the next day went 0-12 from the field.
Not only has Dejounte's defense regressed but so has his scoring. Now if you look at his raw stats you see that his points per game have improved by nearly 2 whole points. But stats do not tell the full story. He is shot-chucking at an all-time high, averaging 7 3 pointers attempted per game (nearly double his highest average in San Antonio). He is hitting them at a 36% clip, which is not bad, but once again the stats do not tell the full story. Look at his shooting splits on open 3's, it is disgusting.
Lastly, and probably the biggest issue is just them co-existing on the floor. As I said before, both Trae Young and Dejounte are ball-dominant players. If they want to play together one has to be able to play off the ball. This means moving without the ball in their hands, shifting the focus of the defense and opening up other players, especially in the corner or the wing. Steph did this and won a ring, but if you watch Trae, once he doesn't have the ball in his hands he refuses to move.
Because Trae will not move off-ball, Dejounte cannot play his best basketball, and neither can Trae. There is only one ball, and neither has the ability to get into a real rhythm. this leads to the dysfunctional offense, and Hawks in general that we see. It's time to cut our losses and break up this "duo".
What's Next?
For me it's a no brainer. The duo does not thrive well together, so you trade one. Which one do you trade? Well I think it's fairly obvious that you keep the 2-time all-star(should be more), 1-time all-NBA team, a player who is 2 years removed from leading the NBA in total points and total assists (only been done once before). It's honestly blasphemy to me that this is a debate and I could sing Trae's praises all day, but you build around the player who has taken you the Eastern Conference Finals (and the farthest run your franchise has ever made since moving to Atlanta).
How to build around Trae Young?
The formula is fairly simple but hard to implement. We watched Golden State build a dynasty around a small guard, so it is possible. Now I'm not saying that Trae Young is Steph Curry. Steph is the greatest shooter of all time, a much better defender, far more efficient, and of-course, as aforementioned, has the off-ball movement. But the formula is there: you surround him by great defenders and shooters.
Now the Atlanta Hawks on paper have shooters: Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Aj Griffin, Saddiq Bey etc. But it just does not convert to the court. Aj Griffin hardly gets minutes, Trae Young takes poor deep 3s that hurt his splits, Bogi is inconsistent, and Bey shot a career low 31% from deep.
For defenders I already hit on Dejounte Murray regression. Clint Capela has also regressed as a rim protector and gets pulled out of the paint far too often.
Deandre Hunter lacks the lateral quickness needed to be an elite defender, and everyone else on the team is a bad defender, besides Onyeka Okongwu and Jalen Johnson. Okongwu lacks the speed able to guard guards, but can guard 3 to 5 and Jalen Johnson can guard bigs.
The painful part is that Deandre Hunter will put together stretches where he looks like he's figured it out: Hawks vs Heat game 6, the Play-in game against the Hornets, his stretch in 2021 before he got hurt, where he is aggressive in getting to the hoop, doesn't just settle for fadeaways and clamps up on defenses. But unfortunately, those games are too far and in between to merit keeping him around as a long-term piece. I mean he said himself he worked on nothing this off-season, and if he isn't going to improve he's not worth keeping around.
Basically, the Hawks roster as built is nothing close to the ideal team you need around Trae Young...
Moves To Make:
Things That Have To Happen:
There are 2 major things that need to happen going forward. Both of them could be done in 1 fell swoop, or it could be 2 different packages, but Dejounte Murray and Clint Capela HAVE to be moved. We have seen that Trae and Dj just don't work together, and Capela is just not a good enough center for the team anymore. Below I will explain some potential moves I would like to see down by the Hawks to try and make this a contending team.
Big Move #1: Trade For Zion Williamson
This is not super realistic but the Hawks are in desperate move of a win now move as soon as possible. In Tuesday's loss to the Lakers Zion Williamson had 40 points, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, shot 63% from the field and was +3 in a 4 point loss. No one else on the team had more than 12 points...
Now I would trade the farm for Zion. The Pelicans need defense and shooters so I would package Dejounte Murray, Deandre Hunter, Clint Capela, Saddiq Bey, and a 1st round pick. If the Pelicans want even more than that I would consider putting 1 of Aj Griffin or Kobe Bufkin (I am very high on the ceiling of both players). That should most definitely get the deal done.
Zion fits almost perfectly with Trae. He does not need the ball in his hands to be effective, he is a great defender, and Trae feeds his bigs... the Zion to Trae lobs would go crazy. Not only that but whenever/if ever Trae is getting doubled that either means Zion is open in the paint, or he has a mismatch, meaning Trae can get the ball to Zion and let him get to work. I said earlier the key to building around Trae is good defenders, well Zion fits this bill to a tee.
Big Move #2: Trade For Paul George
This is much less realistic than the Zion trade, and is contingent on the Clippers losing in the fist round of the playoffs. However, if the Clippers lose to the Mavericks, they may want to move on from the Kawhi Leonard, Paul George experiment and try and get some of their assets back.
In an interview today Trae Young said that one thing that people don't understand about him is that he does not feel the need to be the number one scoring option on a team. All he wants to do is win.
If this is the case and the Clippers make Paul George available, he is a near perfect fit with Trae Young. George is an ELITE 2 way player, providing both scoring, defense, and shooting. He is averaging 22+ points per game on 47/41/90 shooting splits, and if Trae is fine with taking a backseat in the scoring department PG could be the primary scorer while Trae stays as the primary playmaker. There would be no DejounTrae like clash in this scenario, while PG takes on the defensive assignments of the other teams star guards.
This is obviously an utterly dream scenario as of now, but if the Clippers even have any thoughts of trading Paul George we should give up ANYBODY not named Trae or Jalen Johnson and as many 1sts as we can.
Small Move #1: DJM To LAL:
Alas we have to live in the real world and not just fantasy land in which we can just trade for any star player in the league. The lakers are in desperate need of a guard who can defend (at least somewhat), and the Hawks are desperately in need of trading Dejounte Murray.
In this trade I would send Dejounte Murray, Deandre Hunter, and Aj Griffin in return for D'angelo Russel and Rui Hachimura. Rui Hachimura is an elite defender and is also shooting over 40% from 3. Like I said before we need to surround Trae with good shooters and defenders, Rui would serve as both.
Dlo, when he's cold offers almost nothing to a team. For example tonight he was 1-9 from 3 and 6-20 from the field and the Lakers lost by 11. I would then package Dlo, Clint Capela and maybe Bogi for players like Herb Jones and Trey Murphy. Good defenders but I do not know if the Pelicans would take that package. Whatever the case is I'd ship of Dlo asap, he does not fit the team mold that we need to build around Trae.
Small Move #2: Bogi To The Magic:
The Orlando Magic desperately need shooting, and that is something that Bogi excels at (shooting 37% from deep this year and is a career 38% shooter). If we could package Bogi and maybe Bey (another good shooter) for a player like Moe Wagner, Gary Harris, and maybe a 2nd that would really help the Hawks out.
Moe would provide scoring off the bench, something the Hawks have lacked since 2021 when they made their deep playoff run and the Magic would get shooting. Harris is a good shooter on an expiring contract to make the $$ match up. Both teams are happy.
These are just 4 potential trades I would look at, there is a lot more the Hawks can do. Whatever the case may be, if the Hawks want to compete with Trae, they need to get rid of Clint Capela and Dejounte Murray asap and flip them for good defenders and or shooters.
If the Hawks don't want to build around Trae the only other option is a rebuild. Do right by Trae and flip him to a good team for as many assets as you can. Then nuke the roster and build around Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu.
I hope the Hawks try a blockbuster trade to try and win now with Trae Young, but if this is the end of the Trae Young era in Atlanta, I'm glad for all the memories...
Whatever the case may be, as the Hawks stand now the future is bleak, but that can all change with a few moves. It all depends on whether the ownership is willing to make the right ones.
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