The Cheapest Viable Bridge Quarterback In Dynasty
Sometimes things get nasty in Dynasty. Nobody wants to rely on a 35-year-old Quarterback playing on the last year of his contract, but some teams need to find a QB for cheap and don’t have the draft capital to get one that will be starting this year. If you find yourself in this position, I have a cheap option to bridge the gap in your Quarterback room for the 2023 season that won’t cost you much.
Current Value
Ryan Tannehill is the cheapest starting Quarterback in Dynasty outside of Baker Mayfield. According to FantasyPros SuperFlex Dynasty ADP, Tannehill is going off the board as the QB33. The five quarterbacks that follow him are Hendon Hooker, Baker Mayfield, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Darnold, and Zach Wilson. This should give you a taste of how cheap Tannehill is right now.
Revisiting Last Season
This may come as a surprise to some, but Tannehill has remained efficient even with a lackluster Wide Receiver core in 2022. To remind you of what he was dealing with last season, here are the receivers that played more than 50% of the snaps in at least ten games: Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. That’s it.
According to Pro Football Reference, Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo both had snap share percentages under 38% on the season. Even in the 11 healthy games Treylon Burks played, he had a snap share percentage over 75% in just one game. Despite Tannehill’s Wide Receivers posting a 7.8% drop percentage (eighth-worst) he still showed that he can be efficient.
Overcoming Subpar Receivers
Last year, Tannehill was seventh in Yards Per Attempt of Quarterbacks with at least 152 dropbacks, per PFF. He pushed the ball downfield when given the opportunity while having the eighth lowest Turnover Worthy Play Percentage at 2.5%. Again, he did this with Woods and Westbrook-Ikhine as his two primary Wide Receivers and Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim as his two primary Tight Ends.
While working with these uninspiring receivers, Tannehill faced the ninth highest Pressure Rate in the league. He was under duress on 36.1% of his dropbacks and yet still managed to complete 54.3% of his passes. That was the seventh-highest in the NFL.
As I mentioned earlier, his receivers had a very high drop rate, so his Adjusted Completion Percentage while under pressure was 76.3%. That was the highest in the NFL. He also only threw just one interception on these plays. Only Daniel Jones had more dropbacks while throwing one or fewer interceptions.
Ascending 2023 Roster
With DeAndre Hopkins now joining the team, Treylon Burks in his sophomore season, and Chigoziem Okonkwo stepping up as the primary Tight End, Tannehill will have much more reliable receivers to lean on this season. Hopkins has incredible hands, consistently making contested catches and earning a career Drop Rate Percentage of just 3.4%. Look for Tannehill to look his way often, especially when under pressure.
Some people questioned Hopkins's decision to sign with the Titans but some of the metrics laid out by Jordan Vanek might give some insight as to why he may have made this decision. Last year, Hopkins ran a hook route on 28.9% of his routes. On hook routes, Hopkins averaged 2.78 yards per route run (YPRR). That was in the 98% percentile during the 2022 season. The average YPRR for Wide Receivers on hook routes is 1.43 yards. Hopkins nearly doubled that.
Vanek pointed out that since Tannehill joined the Titans, he has targeted the hook route more than any other route at 22%. That is one of the highest percentages of total targets to a specific route since 2018. With Hopkins playing this season at age 31, he is more suited for these shorter routes.
This will allow Burks and Okonkwo to utilize their athleticism and stretch the field. This could prove to be a valuable role in this offense as the Titans tend to run a fair amount of play action. While under center, Tannehill ran play action on 27.8% of his dropbacks. That was the 14th-highest percentage of any quarterback. On these plays, Tannehill had the highest Yards Per Attempt in the league at 12.1 yards. That was 2.1 yards higher than the next closest Quarterback which is a significant jump.
With the threat of Derrick Henry in the backfield and DeAndre Hopkins on the outside, Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo will have many opportunities this season to receive one-on-one coverage. They are both very good athletes and despite moving down the pecking order with Hopkins on the team, their efficiency will now improve as they are no longer the focal point of the passing attack.
Buy, Buy, Buy!
All of this benefits Tannehill. I don’t hear much excitement surrounding Tannehill still despite the Hopkins signing. I think some expect incoming rookie Will Levis to take over at some point this season but Levis still has to make a lot of improvements before he’s ready to start a game in the NFL.
With Head Coach Mike Vrabel there, the Titans will always have a shot to overperform and win their division. Unless Tannehill gets injured or falls off a cliff in terms of his production, I believe he gives the Titans the best chance to make the playoffs and therefore will not lose the starting job in 2023.
If you need another Quarterback in Dynasty this season, send a couple of third-round rookie picks for Tannehill and or a young player with a questionable future for him. Tannehill is a viable QB2 this season and you can get him for close to nothing.
According to KeepTradeCut, some players with adjacent value are, Samaje Perine, Jaylen Warren, Michael Thomas, Chase Brown, and Tyler Boyd. Go and get your bridge Quarterback and win your league!
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