The Death Of The Mid-Range Jump Shot In The NBA
In the second quarter of game five of the 2024 NBA Finals, the Boston Celtics passed the ball to Derrick White behind the three-point line. He up faked, and his defender violated the first rule of defense in basketball, "Don't leave your feet". White dribbled past the defender and had a wide-open 17-foot jumper in front of him. Hit with an overwhelming sense of fear, he quickly dribbled backward toward the defender to shoot a contested three-pointer.
This was not just a basketball play but an emphatic statement about how the game is played today. The goal of the offense is to drive to the hoop for a layup (or possible foul shot) or hoist the ball from as far back as possible. If the three-point line is defended, a player should take a step back and shoot from farther away. There may be no extra points for it, but that won't stop players from launching the ball near the half-court logo. The mid-range jump shot is officially extinct.
Players Dig The Deep Ball
The first team ever to attempt 3,000 or more three-point shots in a season (36.6 per game or more) was the 2016-17 Houston Rockets, running Mike D'Antoni's high-octane offense. In the following seven seasons, 37 teams would accomplish this feat, including the Rockets doing it four more times. This past season, nine teams eclipsed 3,000 three-point field goal attempts, led by the Boston Celtics with 3,482 (fourth most in NBA history).
Boston won the world championship in five games, so it would be easy to extrapolate from the data that the philosophy works. Teams that shoot more threes win more titles. This is, however, completely false. The Celtics became the first team in 29 years to win a title while leading the league in three-point attempts. The Rockets were the last team to achieve this, in 1994-95, taking a whopping 1,757 shots from behind the arc.
The disparity in shot location is staggering when comparing the 2024 Celtics to the 1998 Chicago Bulls or the 2002 Los Angeles Lakers. This past season, 57.5% of Boston's shots were inside 16 feet, and 40.8% were from deep. This means the team only took 8.1% of their shots every game between 16 feet and the three-point line.
The 1998 Chicago Bulls team, led by arguably the greatest scorer in NBA history, Michael Jordan, took 25.8% of their shots from the mid-range area. The 2002 Lakers took 20.6% of their shots from there, and both teams took 21% or fewer shots from deep. These two teams, who favored the mid-range game, are considered two of the best teams in league history. But then again, so are the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors.
The Steph Curry Effect
Contrary to what former gun-wielding NBA player Gilbert Arenas said, Steph Curry is a generational player who changed the entire sport. In his 14-year career, Curry has led the NBA in three-point attempts eight times. Three times he has attempted over 800 three-point attempts in a season (the entire 1998 Bulls squad attempted 962). He is averaging 9.2 attempts per game out of 17.9 field goal attempts per game. 51.4% of all the shots he has taken in his career have been three-pointers.
This is head and shoulders above his predecessors. Ray Allen took 39% of his shots from deep (5.7 of 14.6 per game) while Reggie Miller took 37.3%% (4.7 of 12.6). It's not just the quantity of threes he's taken, but the quality as well. Many of those attempts are from well behind the arc, some stretching to just inside half-court. His pre-game shot ritual regularly draws gasps, hoots, and hollers from on-lookers.
There is no denying Curry's range is a sight to behold. It's easy to understand why the league has chosen to copy a 10-time all-star, two-time MVP, and four-time NBA Champion. His strategy appears to be a recipe for success, and as such, there is no reason for a player to ever again practice a mid-range jumper.
When faced with taking an uncontested 18-footer, it appears we are going to see many more Derrick Whites scrambling backward to the comfort of a three-pointer. Farewell mid-range jumpers. May the legend of your greatness and importance live on in the hearts and minds of those who were fortunate enough to witness your existence.
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