The AFL Playoffs Continue With Round Three Of The Preliminary Finals
The Brisbane Lions defeated the Greater Western Sydney Giants in an entertaining semi-final match. The Port Adelaide Power narrowly averted a catastrophe with their win (Averted For At Least For One More Game). The 2024 chase for an AFL Premiership Title brings together four strong teams in the Preliminary Final Round.
The 2024 AFL playoffs have completed rounds one and two and are now entering the two-stage segment known as the Preliminary Finals and Grand Final. Four clubs remain, and one team will ultimately win the Premiership title. Here are five things to set up the Third Round of the AFL Playoffs.
Brisbane Lions Took Out A Dangerous GWS Giants Squad
During the game, there was a moment when the Giants led the Lions by 44 points. After surrendering a big lead against the Swans the week prior, in a loss that sent them to this Elimination Final, that is a disturbing reality to have at the start of the offseason. They lost both of their matches in these Finals, even while playing from the lead over the strong majority of minutes. On the other side, as Brisbane advances, the comeback provides the team with a solid boost of confidence heading into the match with Geelong.
Arguments exist for the idea that GWS lost this game as much as Brisbane won it. In the Final quarter, GWS elected to play on and missed a scoring opportunity directly in front of the goal. Taking the free kick would have been as close to earning an automatic six points as a team could possibly face. That is not a great look in a match decided by five points.
Port Adelaide Power (And Ken Hinkley) Survived Against The Hawthorn Hawks
The game itself featured Port Adelaide taking control at the start of the match, and also ahead as the final siren sounded. The finer details of the game prove slightly more problematic for the Power. Hawthorn came back several times from sizable deficits, and in the third quarter had taken the lead. The captain of the Hawks, James Sicily, had the opportunity to win the game outright with a kick only to strike the post.
Playing this contest after an opening loss in the qualifying round, the Power were facing questions at all levels of the organization. The team was outplayed and thoroughly smashed in the first game against the Cats, 138-54. Head coach Ken Hinkley has been marvelous during his career in the regular season with Port Adelaide, but time and again has come up with disappointments in the Finals. (Hinkley’s frustrations were noted in two previous AFL articles here at Stadium Rant – “The AFL Begins Its March Toward The 2024 Grand Final” and “Second Week Of AFL Finals Builds On Strong Statements From Opening Round”.)
During this contest, the Power did enough to win and move on, but the inability to put Hawthorn away did nothing to answer questions or quiet the critics. They moved from being overwhelmed in one match to losing a lead and hanging on in the next. If the team shows up to play in either of these ways against Sydney, they almost certainly won’t advance past the Swans.
Hinkley’s fate rests in the curious existence of opposing results. Against Hawthorn, he tied the Port Adelaide record for most games coached for the organization. That record, a tie with Mark Williams at 273 games, will be broken when the Power face the Swans. That kind of longevity speaks loudly in recognition of Hinkley’s overall success. Another record already belongs to Hinkley, however, which is that he has coached the most games for any AFL club without reaching a single Grand Final.
Top Seed Sydney Swans Draw Number Two Port Adelaide Power
The AFL runs its Finals in several interesting ways. In the opening round, the top four seeds of the eight total qualifiers play each other. None of these teams will end their season with a loss, as the losing teams move to the second round, known as the Elimination Finals. The winners receive a bye week for the second round, advancing to the third round of Preliminary Finals and designation as the home team for the game. (And this is where things take an even more interesting twist.)
Geelong played Port Adelaide in the opener, and the AFL does not allow rematches until the Grand Final. As a result, the top-seeded Swans will host the number two seed Power in this round. The three-seed Cats host the five-seed Lions.
The Swans and Power last met on August 3rd. In that game, the Power easily put away the Swans in embarrassing fashion, winning 148-36. That match, the only one of this season between the teams, was played at the Adelaide Oval. This time, the Swans will host the Power. That doesn’t mean Sydney can find any particular comfort heading into the contest, however, as they haven’t defeated Port Adelaide since 2017.
Both clubs bring outstanding midfield groups to this match. The Swans have Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, and Errol Gulden, and they have been brilliant this year. Each received All-Australia designations for their play, and are capable of turning the scoreboard into a fireworks display. The Power will send Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, and Jason Horne-Francis onto the field, with Butters also an All-Australia blazer recipient of the year.
The game itself might be decided outside of each team’s perceived dominant strengths. Sydney has two players, Tom Papley and Nick Blakey, where each is capable of delivering a big play at any time that changes the momentum of a game. If they play a true team game, Sydney will be difficult enough to stop, regardless of whether or not Port Adelaide can improve their overall play for a full match and overcome the history of Ken Hinkley’s postseason woes.
Geelong Cats Faces Unpredictable Challenges From The Steady Brisbane Lions
The Cats are sending an interesting roster into this week’s Preliminary Finals. Patrick Dangerfield, the team captain, is the obvious selection of a player to watch in gauging Geelong’s chances of success. He is playing in his twenty-eighth AFL Finals game, and also in his eighth Preliminary Final. Contrast that experience to the youth of the Cats, where the game two weeks ago against the Power provided seven members of the team with their first postseason play.
Dangerfield missed several weeks in the middle of this season due to injury. His absence created a significant hole and explains a bit of the Cat's inability to turn in consistent efforts from one game to the next. He will be one of the most important players for either team in this matchup.
Brisbane lost to Collingwood in the 2023 Grand Final. They have a team only one year removed from a run that made it to the championship game and understand what it takes to get back there. That has to be respected by their opponent, and not overlooked.
The Lions have been notorious for problems with accuracy and scoring, often leaving points off the board, settling for behinds instead of goals, if not failing to score entirely. In the opening match, they had more behinds than goals. In the Semi-Finals, they were equal in the scoring categories. If they expect to defeat the Cats, the Lions will need to improve their shot at goal accuracy.
Are Geelong And Sydney The Teams To Beat?
Geelong and Sydney are going to be challenged by an interesting bit of scheduling for the Finals. Both teams have had an extraordinary amount of time off over the last four weeks. Following games on the 23rd and 24th of August, the Cats and Swans respectively have only played once heading into this round’s action.
While Geelong looked sharp in both of those weeks, teams playing well often want to keep playing. Sydney received a tremendous lift out of their contest against GWS to open the playoffs, earning an emotional comeback win, but could see those emotions wear off over another extended break.
Geelong has not been consistent throughout the season. Even with the creative and explosive play in the first round of the Finals, the Cats' regular season is littered with some lopsided losses. After winning the first seven contests in 2024, Geelong has been hit or miss, a streakiness confirmed by an inability to win more than three in a row since. The leadership of Dangerfield should help with this.
Sydney has displayed the most dynamic attack in footy this season, but that may not be enough to win two more games. While arguably the best team for all of 2024, their inconsistent play and losses in the second half of the regular season do not create a reliable foundation for supporters to find much comfort.
The only certainty is that all of these clubs have strong stars at their core, and are capable of tremendous efforts at any time. Whether or not they can provide them this week, and advance to the Grand Final, may be the most unpredictable part of what has already been an exciting and surprising 2024 AFL Finals.
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