The Patriots' Heirarchy Of Needs After Brutal Week 5 Loss
Foxborough, MA - The Patriots have lost their way - there's no other way of putting it. Their 34-0 loss to New Orleans makes it 72-3 in the last two games, margins unheard of in the Belichick era. While the obvious answer to "what needs to change" is almost everything, here's my estimation of the priority order for the Patriots.
Extremely High Importance: Offensive Line
To be more specific, the tackle situation needs serious work. With David Andrews, Cole Strange, and Mike Onwenu on the interior, Mac is still pretty well protected up front. However, offensive tackle is a completely different story. Trent Brown hasn't been himself on the left side; the last two seasons have been littered with uncharacteristic miscues and penalties.
On the right side, the position has been a revolving door over the past two seasons - Wynn, Cannon and McDermott rotated in and out all of last season, and none of them could put a good game together. This season has been the same story with different players, with Calvin Anderson, Vedarian Lowe, and Riley Reiff going in and out, and none of them finding any rhythm at the position.
The end result has been Mac Jones getting rushed on a consistent basis, which is not only leading to sacks (and turnovers) but is also leading to rushed decisions/throws by Jones, whose mentality has also been shaken lately, partially due to this lack of protection.
The interior could still use some improvement, as the unit is at best functional. Onwenu has had a bit of a dropoff from 2022, especially in the penalties department, and the run blocking from the entire line has been quite poor and has caused disappointing starts for both Elliot and Stevenson. Furthermore, while Strange deserves more time to prove himself, his health issues and inconsistency cause for some concern. David Andrews is an ever-so-solid rock for the team on and off the field, but he isn't getting any younger either.
While these past two games certainly lead to understandable doubts about Mac, with 12 games still left in the season, changes at offensive line as soon as possible, ideally before the trade deadline, will help allow the Patriots to make a proper evaluation on Mac's candidacy for a fifth-year option, and regardless of what they do or don't do at QB, will help the teams' future, because at the moment, there isn't a QB in the league that wouldn't be bothered by the current situation.
High Importance: Offensive Co-GM
The sports world right now is having a very binary view on Belichick in on whether or not to keep him in NE, the (pointless) Belichick-Brady debate, among other things. However, I see Belichick in three spheres of influence: head coaching, offensive GM, and defensive GM.
On two of these three, there is no doubting his greatness. For the Jonnu Smiths, N'Keal Harrys, Devin Asiasis, etc... of his recent GMing career on offense, there are Kyle Duggers, Matt Judons, and Christian Gonzalezes of the world to prove that he knows how to assemble a defense. It's equally obvious that in this day and age, he no longer knows how to complete an offense. Julian Edleman echoed a sentiment that I've had for weeks quite well on Sunday: Belichick needs someone in his ear about the offensive acquisitions.
While keeping him at HC and Co-GM (defensive), taking advantage of his continued strengths, the Patriots can do a lot for themselves by hiring a Co-GM who focuses on offense. Ideally this is someone outside of his coaching tree and someone who can exchange ideas with him toward the formation of the Patriots' roster for the future.
High Importance: Receiver Core
The Patriots have some foundational blocks here, and this is a team full of depth and a number of talented, skilled players catching the ball. The issue is: none of them have number-one receiver potential.
It has manifested big time this year: they've been well below the NFL average in terms of average separation yards - by almost a yard. Both in terms of speed and changes in direction, the Patriots don't have the guy who can take on top-tier corners or make contested catches in big moments.
Despite improper usage, the tight-end situation is something to build on. Gesicki and Henry have been solid, both on the field and as leaders off the field. Demario Douglas is showing promise with his agility and route running skills, although he also needs to be used more. Kendrick Bourne has stepped up from a disappointing 2022 to come closer to his 2021 level. He's one of the only, if not only members of the team that can both thrive in the slot and make catches downfield with consistency.
However, Devante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster are looking like sunken contracts. JuJu has dropped a large number of passes and caught just over half of his 25 targets for just 86 yards. Parker hasn't been much better, only catching 12 passes for 129 yards. Neither has been effective this season, despite being on significant contracts.
Between their pass-catching weapons, they have two promising tight ends, a couple of number two-quality receivers, and two number three-level guys being paid number-one-level money. This offseason, or maybe as soon as the deadline, the Patriots need to overhaul the position. This is another limitation on being able to assess Mac for his fifth-year option - he needs better weapons to properly thrive.
Medium Need: QB
It's no secret that Mac Jones has struggled in the past couple of games and really hasn't risen to his 2021 level since the close of the season. The scars from the 2022 season are looking somewhat permanent, and he's on a downward spiral currently. The last two games have been filled with self-inflicted turnovers, airmailed passes, and a generally beaten-down mentality on his side.
The Patriots should definitely assess the QB market in the offseason, as well as the draft, based on their position, to see if there is a reasonable option there. However, I do believe that Mac still has the capabilities to do well as a quarterback in this league.
At his best, he's an accurate, decisive, intelligent quarterback who finds the highest-percentage plays and makes use of all of his weapons. His 2021 play and his Alabama play are evidence of his ability to lead an offense and to win important games. Consistent pressure, poor WR play, and some permanent scarring from 2022 are limiting his ability to access that level. However, the Patriots should still give him the rest of the season - while trying to improve the situation around him - his level was promising as recently as game two of this season.
Medium Need: K
It's simple, and I've said this many times: drafting Ryland was a mistake. Even if he was performing a lot better than he is this season, spending a fourth-round pick on a kicker with Nick Folk already there, a guy who had broken the all-time record for consecutive field goals inside of 50 yards, and was one of the cornerstones of the team in 2022 was foolish. The team needed to use that pick on a receiver or tackle - positions of much greater need.
Folk is now 13-13 this season on FGs, including three from outside of 50 yards, and perfect on extra points. Ryland, on the other hand, while also being perfect in extra points, has been a mere 4-8 (3-7 on kicks over 40 yards). While the problems on the offense go way beyond the kicking game, it's yet another example of poor roster building on this side of the ball.
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