These Three Fantasy Football Players Are Not The Move To Make

Fantasy Football Draft season is upon us.

As managers are scouring mock drafts, rankings and ADP to find the best possible value for their roster, we add to the mess to rule out three players that are being selected far too high.

Potential is a tough thing to quantify when dealing with hard statistics. Exciting players do not necessarily contribute in the way that fantasy managers are expecting. As a result, there is significant value in taking a player that seems more "boring".

We swap out three players that are being over-hyped, with options that can win your league. These are the players to avoid in 2023.

Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler is a superstar running back.

The Chargers' running back had an exemplary season in 2022. He had 915 rushing yards, 722 receiving yards from 107 catches, and 18 total touchdowns. PFF credited him with 43 missed tackles forced, 127 targets in the passing game and 22 runs of more than ten yards.

Ekeler's skill is not the issue. The superstar is 28 years old, discontent by the running back market and although he does not have significant backfield competition, it is likely that the Chargers will reduce his load somewhat from last year. Plus, there is the durability and longevity of the position itself to consider.

Ekeler is being drafted fourth overall, and I would argue for that sort of draft capital you could acquire an elite receiver such as Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Travis Kelce or Cooper Kupp, who would present less risk. Then instead, you could circle back in the second round and select a player such as Tony Pollard or Rhamondre Stevenson.

Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Dalvin Cook has been released, and Alexander Mattison has shot up draft boards.

Although the Minnesota Vikings running back has not had a ton of volume in his career, he has been solid when called upon. Once considered an elite fantasy handcuff, Mattison now gets the opportunity to start and expand on his career 404 carries, that has resulted in 1,670 yards.

On 74 carries, he forced an impressive 23 missed tackles, despite only achieving an average of 3.8 yards per carry. PFF credited him with a stellar 84.2 rushing grade in 2022. If he can sustain that same prowess, Mattison can truly be a fantasy steal.

That being said, he is being drafted ahead of players that have proved themselves as effective NFL starters with solid fantasy value. Cam Akers, Alvin Kamara, Isaiah Pacheco and James Conner all have a lower ADP than Mattison, and provide more certainty of production capability.

Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

This one is a hard one.

Mike Williams has been one of the more frustrating players in fantasy football. He is extremely inconsistent statistically, due to his role as an explosive deep-threat receiver. That volatility can cause fantasy managers to bench him on weeks he could explode for 40, or leave him to score single digits.

While he generally has solid seasons, his electric play can sometimes stay in our mind as a more exciting option than alternatives. For example, in the last four years, Williams has exceeded five touchdowns just once, and more than 1,001 yards only a single time. At 28 years of age, he is not likely to get substantially better.

In juxtaposition, you could snag Tyler Lockett, who has had 1,033 or better in each of the past four campaigns. Furthermore, the Seahawks' secondary receiver has had at least eight touchdowns in the last five seasons. And he is going at WR31 instead of Williams' 26th placed ADP.

Don't trust Lockett due to his age or the addition of Jaxon Smith-Nijgba? I would argue Williams is even more jeopardy with the acquisition of Quentin Johnston in the draft. Moreover, Brandon Aiyuk or Diontae Johnson are also superior alternatives, as both are being drafted later and have more target potential.

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