Three College Football Win Total Bets For 2024
Now that the NBA and NHL seasons have ended, we have reached the worst stretch of the betting calendar. No offense, baseball. There is good news, though! We are just eight weeks away from the start of the college football season! What better time to lock in some regular season win totals? I've got three win total futures to go over today.
Indiana Hoosiers Over 5.5 Wins (+116)
You can get this on FanDuel for the best odds. DraftKings has them at five wins at -135, but I like them to go over this total so I'm going after the plus sign. The Hoosiers are coming off a disappointing 3-9 season, but there is much to like about this team in 2024.
Indiana hired former James Madison coach Curt Cignetti in the offseason. He has never had a losing record in his 13 seasons as a college football head coach. This is his biggest coaching job, but he doesn't intend to let that phase him. Cignetti brought over his entire offensive coaching staff from JMU and got to work early. He convinced receiver Donaven McCulley and left tackle Carter Smith to withdraw from the transfer portal. McCulley led the team in all receiving stats last season, while Smith brings stability to an offensive line that lacks depth.
Cignetti has developed a reputation as a "quarterback whisperer." He will have a chance to show off that ability with transfer QB Kurtis Rourke. The former Ohio Bobcat put up over 2,200 passing yards and 11 touchdowns last season. He added over 200 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Those numbers were good enough to earn him MAC Offensive Player of the Year honors.
The Hoosiers' schedule starts pretty easy. Their first six games are against FIU, Western Illinois, UCLA, Charlotte, Maryland, and Northwestern. FIU, WIU, and Charlotte should all be easy wins. They should be able to knock off Northwestern and get at least one win between UCLA and Maryland. Assuming they pick up those wins, they will have five to start the season.
The back half of the schedule is much more challenging. They will take on Nebraska, Washington, Michigan, and Ohio State in four of their final six games. The other two are very winnable, though. Those are against Michigan State and rival Purdue. The Spartans finished with just four wins last season. Purdue won in rivalry week last season, so Indiana will be out for revenge this year. I like their chances of winning one out of those two.
Indiana is a very different team from last season. To cash this ticket, I like them to pick up at least six wins in 2024.
Fresno State Bulldogs o8 Wins (-120)
You can get this number on DraftKings. Some 7.5 are floating around out there, but they are heavily juiced.
It's no secret the backbone of this team is the defense. The Bulldogs' defense finished 3rd in the Mountain West in ppg with 24.6, 2nd in sacks (26), and 1st in interceptions (16). And they're returning almost all of their starters from last season. This includes defensive back Dean Clark. The senior was 2nd on the team in both tackles and interceptions. Defensive Coordinator Kevin Coyle should have another stout unit again this year.
The main question for Fresno State will be who starts under center. But it's not from a lack of options. Mikey Keene is set to be the starter for now. Keene transferred from UCF before last season and had an impressive 2023 campaign. He threw for over 2,900 yards and 24 touchdowns last season. But it was sophomore Jayden Mandal who showed out in the spring game. He led the 2nd team offense to score 10 points against the Bulldogs 1st teamers. Keene will be the starter this season, but Mandal will provide an option to add a wrinkle to the offensive playbook.
Fresno starts the season against the defending champion Michigan Wolverines, but the rest of their season is not exactly a gauntlet. They will be favored in 9 of their remaining 11 games. That is because they have the most manageable road schedule in the Mountain West. Their conference road games this season are against New Mexico, UNLV, Nevada, and Air Force. They should be favored in all four games.
With a very strong defense, what should be a capable offense and a soft schedule, I like the Bulldogs to get at least nine wins on the season.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights u6.5 Wins (-140)
This number is available at Caesars. You can even get six in some books, but I believe the hook could be crucial for this one.
Rutgers is coming off an impressive seven-win season, during which they were victorious over Miami in the Pinstripe Bowl. Unfortunately, their schedule for 2024 does not do them any favors. They start with Howard and Akron, but those are their only two gimmes. They will then travel to Virginia Tech before they begin a rough stretch of Big 10 games.
The Scarlet Knights will begin conference play against Washington, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA, and USC in a five-week stretch. They will probably lose all five. They play Minnesota, Maryland, Illinois, and Michigan State to end their season. But I have a hard time seeing a scenario where they will win all four, something they would likely have to do to get to seven wins.
The key to Rutgers' successful 2023 campaign was their defense. They ranked in the top 50 nationally in total (16th), scoring (32nd), rushing (41st) and passing (10th) defense. While they should still be stalwarts on the defensive side of the ball, they did lose star corner Max Melton to the NFL Draft. Melton led the team in interceptions last season.
They also lost starting quarterback Gavin Wimsmatt to the transfer portal. Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis will replace him. He didn't put up great numbers for the Golden Gophers, only passing for 1,800 yards last season. He also threw nine interceptions to just 14 touchdowns.
The roster is essentially the same as in 2023, but the schedule is primarily why I'm fading the Scarlet Knights this season. They went under this 6.5 in the regular season last year against a much softer schedule. Rutgers has not won seven regular-season games since 2014, and not at all in Greg Schiano's second stint with the team.
The Scarlet Knights are struggling this season and falling below the 6.5-win total.
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