Top Two Sneaky Dynasty Superflex Values At QBs & RBs
Rookies are reporting to camp, and we are only eight more Sundays until kickoff. That means the fantasy juices are starting to flow. Let me try and direct that energy into getting some league-winning players at a minimum value. My general rule of thumb for dynasty is to play in three-year windows. Trying to plan further than that is impossible. This will be easier to break it down by position.
QB: Geno Smith ADP 77.2
Last Year around this time, people were talking about the QB "competition" between Drew Locke and Geno Smith (Quite a few people were in on Locke). Then Geno went on to compile 4,282 yards, 30 TDs, 11 INTs off of a 100.9 passer rating and a 69.8 completion percentage. This was enough to win comeback player of the Year and finish as the QB 5. He even added 68 rushes for 366 yards (top ten for QB).
The Seahawks extended Geno to a three-year deal. There is a potential out in 2024, but he has another year in the system, and they added Jaxon Smith Njigba to DK & Lockett. The backfield has breakaway speed and receiving chops. Even the offensive line is good. Everything is set up for him to succeed.
Some fantasy managers may think that last season was his ceiling since he had a terrible start to his career. These managers will want to try and get something good for a player you probably picked up on waivers.
If you are a contender who needs a high-end QB2 in the trade market, you could get him for a 2023 & 2024 second, a second & Brian Robinson or Jayden Reed tiered players.
Geno can be found after the sixth round in most startups so that you can stack the position groups after a Hero QB.
QB: Sam Howell ADP 128.4
This was close for me between Howell and Desmond Ridder; both are second-year guys that showed glimpses of potential in extremely small sample sizes. I was higher on Howell when he came out, and it stayed true because his glance popped. In his first NFL pass, he threw a TD to Terry McLaurin (Fun Fact).
Sam is 6'1, 220, and he won't have many designed runs, but he isn't afraid to tuck it and run when given the RPO call. He will be able to get the ball to his receivers in stride. Howell has a very reliable cast of skill position players in Terry, Dotson, Samuel, Gibson, and BRob.
Eric Beinemy can be the actual difference-maker for fantasy. Mahomes and Kelce swear by EB, and the Reid coaching tree has produced great offensive minds. Putting Howell in a position to succeed with these playmakers makes his value too good to pass on. A young skill positions player or a second & third would do the trick in most formats.
RB Aaron Jones ADP 39.1
Aaron Jones is at the right ADP, but in the startups, I've done recently, he's gone at 6.03, 8.01, & 9.05 (two of those were selected by yours truly). Jones is always underrated but can be a week-winner even without Rodgers running this offense. The Packers O-Line was graded sixth in the NFL last year, and Lafluer's system is built off the outside zone run and the RBs in the passing game.
These are both things Jones excels at. However, people aren't drafting him due to: Rodgers' departure & AJ Dillon's potential ascension.
What they seem to forget is that the Packers biggest star on the offense is Aaron Jones; he still has two years on his deal. Coming off 213 carries, 1121 rushing yards, and only 2 TDs on the ground and 72 targets, 59 receptions 395 yards, and five receiving TDs.
Though 27, Jones hasn't had the insane workload of other backs like Lenny and Zeke. Running him in space as Dillion bruises keeps Jones fresh and healthy.
Lastly, Matt Lafluer knows how to feature a star on an offense. With how the team is set up, his could be similar to Jones' 2019 & 2020 seasons.
David Montgomery ADP 109.9
The Monty hate is unwarranted. Over four seasons, he's played in 40/48 possible games, racking up 803 PPR points this time, which means his career points per game is at 20.1. The only time he was in a good offense was the RB 4 overall in 2020. Now he comes over to the Lions, where Jamal Williams (also an afterthought in drafts due to Swift) led the league in rushing TDs.
Here comes Monty, inserted into the same goal-line role (who is more talented than Williams with less swag), and he's practically thrown aside in drafts. Well, Gibbs has an expensive third-round price tag. The numbers don't add up to him being in the back of the tenth round. It's going to be a steal.
Even if he finishes with half as many TDs as Williams (17), it would be close to double digits. He should push 900-1000 yards on the ground. This is a very viable RB2 or flex play with a decent ceiling. If the Lions use Gibbs in the slot more or if he misses anytime, Monty would be elevated to a low-end RB1.
Dynasty Conclusion
Geno, Howell, Jones, and Monty seem to be valued differently in my drafts compared to their ADP. Each of these players will step up and outperform where they are drafted. If you take them in your drafts, even at their ADP, they should allow you to flood early-round capital on difference-making pass catchers. I'll be back with Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by this weekend.
Who Will Be On Your Team This Year
Geno
Howell
Jones
Monty
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