Two Reasons Why The Bengals Will Win The AFC North.
The Cincinnati Bengals currently have the second-best odds to win the AFC North on most sports books. Mainly between +145 and +175 on the big books. While that is not the greatest value in terms of a future bet, I believe there are two reasons they will win the division this season.
Easy Schedule
Joe Burrow missed the final eight games last season which led to them finishing last in the North. That could end up being a blessing in disguise for this season. They get a last-place schedule for the 2024 campaign, which will include a few cupcake teams in the Patriots, Panthers, and Titans. The North will also play the AFC West and NFC East this season. That does mean they will face Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Dallas. But they will also get the dregs of those conferences in Washington, New York, Los Angeles, and Denver.
The Ravens, on the other hand, will have to take on a first-place schedule. They will face the same AFC West and NFC East schedule, but they will also have to take on the Bills, Texans, and Buccaneers. Those three first-place games, compared to the Bengals' last-place games, could very well be the difference in who wins this division.
It also helps that the Browns, Steelers, and Ravens all have some of the hardest schedules in the league.
Addressed Defensive Needs
Cincinnati's defense was far from great last year. They gave up a league-worst 6 yards per play in 2023. They also finished 20th in opponent points per game at 22.6. In a division filled with elite defenses, the Bengals needed to add defensive weapons for this season. And they have.
They added DT Sheldon Rankins from the Texans to bolster their front four. He is coming off a 2023 season where he had 37 tackles and 6 sacks. He will pair well with DE Trey Hendrickson, who is one of the best pass-rushers in the league.
Cincy also poached S Geno Stone from Baltimore. Stone only had 1 career interception going into 2023. But he exploded for 7 picks last season, good enough for the second most in the league. I don't think it's fair to expect 7 more picks from him, or really anyone, this season, but he should be a good addition to what was a weak secondary last season.
They also selected two more DT's in the first three rounds of the draft in Kris Jenkins and McKinnley Jackson.
The AFC North will likely be a two-horse race between Cincinnati and Baltimore. I think the Browns will have a letdown after last season where their defense carried them to multiple upset wins. Some people seem to buy into the Steelers, but I'm not sold. Yes, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are better than Kenny Pickett, but I'll be surprised if either turns Pittsburgh into a true contender.
I expect a fully healthy Joe Burrow to come back better than last year, and probably with a chip on his shoulder, as well. This, combined with a better defense and an easy schedule, should lead the Bengals to a division title in 2024.
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