Sep 713 min read

Week 1 Fantasy Football Starts And Sits

NFL Football is here—it's finally here. With the return of football comes the return of stressing over making the correct lineup choices every week in fantasy. Some players, such as Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill, are in lineups every week, but others are matchup-dependent.

The players listed below are players fantasy managers may have questions about, players who are set to explode based on their matchup, or, in the case of sits, players who should be faded this week.

Start- Kyler Murray Vs. Bills:

Those who are big NBA fans know the "league pass" team. Every year, there is always a team or two that are can't miss TV. But they don't have many nationally televised games, which means they are the "league pass" team. Last year was the Pacers, and the year before was the Kings, both of whom had elite offenses and subpar defense, which led to fast-paced, high-scoring games.

While this obviously is not the NBA, the Cardinals are set to be the equivalent of a "league pass" team for the NFL. The offense should be elite, and the defense should be below average. Due to the combination of great offense and bad defense, Kyler should be an every-week starter with elite upside.

While Kyler should be an every-week starter, this matchup has the potential to be a high-scoring shootout, which gives Kyler QB 1 upside for the weak. People hear the Bills and think of Josh Allen, but also think of a defense that is usually a top-tier unit. This year, there is a good chance that the Bills' defense will take a notable step back. The Bill's defensive line should be solid with Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau, but the back 7 has question marks.

The Bills' secondary is revamped after losing Tre'Davious White, Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde this off-season, which has led to new faces in the starting lineup. Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp are slated to be full-time starters this season after starting the year as backups last season.

The Bills lost their best defensive player during training camp, along with the revamped secondary. Starting linebacker Matt Milano is on IR and will miss at least the season's first four games. The Bills' defense should be good enough to handle bad offenses, but the Cardinals' offense should be in the top 10 this season.

The Cardinal's offense was not good without Kyler last season, as they were 28th in points per game with 16.8 and 26th in yards per game with 289.7. Once Kyler returned from injury, the Card's offense skyrocketed from 28th in points to 13th with 22.4 a game and 26th in yards to 9th with 362.8 yards a game. Numbers don't lie, and with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr., a full season of Trey McBride as the starting tight end, and most importantly, a full season of Kyler Murray at QB (and Greg Dortch, too), the Cardinals should be a top 10 offense.

In a game that features Josh Allen on the other side of the ball against the Cardinals' defense, the Cardinals will need to keep up on offense to have a chance in this game, which means Kyler will have plenty of opportunities to produce for fantasy. Kyler should be started every week, but with the Bills' defense having name value as an elite group, he needs to be on this list so people are not afraid of the matchup on paper.

Start- Tua Tagovailoa Vs. Jaguars:

Both quarterbacks in this game are strong starts, with Trevor Lawrence on the other side, but Tua knows how to start a season off right.

Last season, in week 1 against the Chargers, Tua had 466 yards and 3 touchdowns in a shootout, which was good for 27 fantasy points in 4 points per passing touchdown leagues. In week 2 of 2022 against an elite Ravens defense, Tua had 469 yards and 6 touchdowns, which was good under 39 fantasy points in 4 points per passing touchdown leagues.

The Dolphin's offense is electric, and when matched up against a bad defense, they dominate. In week 3 of 2023, the Dolphins scored 70 points against the Broncos, and Tua had 28 points in that game.

The Jags matchup is a positive one. The Jags were not great against the pass last season, giving up 256 yards per game through the air, which was 7th worst in the league. Outside of the matchup being good for Tua, the Jags offense should be good enough to stay in the game, meaning more scoring opportunities for Tua and the offense.

With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the ceiling for the Dolphins' passing game simply does not exist, meaning Tua could explode at any moment for fantasy. Week 1 is primed to be a high-scoring game between these two teams.

Two good offenses going against each other with question marks on both defenses, elite receiving options for Tua, and great weather in Miami; what else could a fantasy manager ask for leading into this game? Tua may not be a locked-and-loaded starter every week, but for week 1 he absolutely should be.

Sit- Dak Prescott Vs. Browns:

Dak was so good for fantasy last season, especially in the second half, but the start of the season was rough, and this matchup with the Browns is not an ideal start.

Throughout the entire 2023 season, the Browns had the league's best defense as they only allowed 270 yards per game, which was the lowest amount by almost 20 yards per game. Not only were they the best in terms of yards allowed, but they were also the best in terms of passing yards allowed, as they allowed only 164 yards per game to opposing teams through the air, which was the best in the league. The Cowboys will air it all, as their strength is their receiving core, but the offense could get off to a shaky start.

Along with the tough defensive matchup, Ceedee Lamb missed all of camp while holding out for a new deal, which could lead to some rust in the season opener, which is not a plus for Dak. The Browns also have the reigning defensive player of the year, Myles Garrett, who is set to face rookie tackle Tyler Guyton for the Cowboys. Guyton looked great in the pre-season, but Myles Garrett is an elite player, which means Guyon has his hands full at his first official start.

There is a chance Dak is the only quarterback on players' rosters. If there is no other choice, then, of course, start Dak, as he could have a great game. However, if a strong pivot is available, such as Baker Mayfield, then benching Dak may be the best move. Don't panic if Dak has a down week; he is still a great fantasy option, but finding a pivot may be the best option in this specific matchup.

Running Backs

Start Zamir White Vs. Chargers

After 5 seasons of Josh Jacobs as the team's lead back, the Raiders decided to let Jacobs walk and hand the backfield over to 3rd year-back Zamir White. While White hasn't had a ton of work in the NFL through 2 seasons, he has looked impressive in his limited workload. White was the team's starting RB over the final 4 games of last season and had just under 400 yards in those 4 games. White is primed for a breakout season as the team starter, and he starts the season with a good matchup.

White played as a starter last year against the Chargers, and in that game, White had 17 rushes for 69 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers defense will look different than it did then, as they have a completely new coaching staff and defensive scheme, but the personnel is still similar. The Raiders want to run the ball as much as they can this season, and White is set to be the bell-cow for Vegas.

Some people fear that teams could load the box and make Gardner Minshew beat them, which is a possibility. However, with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, Brock Bowers, and Michael Mayer as receiving options, teams won't be able to play man-to-man all game long. White should see plenty of light boxes due to the Raiders' receiving talent, which will only make things easier.

Between an upgraded offensive line and a new run scheme that fits the line and backs better, White could have a big season, and he should have a strong start against the Chargers.

Start- Kenneth Walker III Vs. Broncos:

It feels like Zach Charbonnet's name was not mentioned at all during the off-season, while Kenneth Walker was talked up all off-season by the Seahawks. Walker has only received praise from his coaches and has been described as a third-down back for this season. Walker has been a good fantasy asset for the past two seasons, but he could take off this year as a potential top 5 back.

To start the season, Walker and the Seahawks get the Broncos, one of the league's worst defenses against the run last year, allowing big gains all year. Walker's strength as a runner is not picking up 4-5 yards a touch, but he can turn any touch into a 50-yard run and take it to the crib. Walker is one of the more explosive backs in the league, and considering the Broncos were continuously gashed on the ground through long breakaway runs last year, the matchup couldn't be any better for Walker.

The Seahawks' new offense under Ryan Grubb will spread the ball out, leading to lighter boxes for Walker, which is only a positive. Walker should be locked in every lineup this week and should dominate the Broncos' poor run defense in week 1.

Sit- Brian Robinson Jr. Vs. Buccaneers:

Brian Robinson has felt like a safe pick throughout the off-season, probably because he is. Still, the Commanders drafted Jayden Daniels, a mobile quarterback, and signed Austin Ekeler to play a prominent role in the backfield as a pass catcher.

The Commander's offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury, has spoken highly of Robinson throughout the off-season as a player with a great 3-down skill set. However, until Robinson takes the field with Daniels and Ekeler, it is hard to know exactly his workload.

On top of all of that, Robinson starts the season with a bad matchup, as the Bucs have been one of the league's best rush defenses for multiple seasons. The Bucs get beaten through the air, as they are elite against running and blitzing a lot. Expect a lot of pressure being thrown at Daniels this week by the Bucs, which could lead to loaded boxes for Robinson to deal with, which is not ideal.

As the season progresses and the RB situation in Washington settles, Robinson will become easier to trust. However, until everything shakes out, Robinson is a flex play at best and should be on benches this week if there are similar options with a better matchup.

Sit- D'andre Swift Vs. Titans:

Swift will be lined up in the backfield with a rookie quarterback this week Caleb Williams. The Bears signed Swift immediately as free agency began, and it appeared as if he would be the team's starting RB. Still, after Khalil Herbert played a large majority of snaps with the starters in pre-season, there are questions about Swift's role.

Similar to waiting to see how Brian Robinson's role plays out, doing the same with Swift may be the best way to go. Swift will undoubtedly be the team's pass-catching back, as he is a great receiving back, but he could lose early down work to a bigger back like Herbert, which would limit his upside.

The Titans matchup is not ideal for Swift as Tennessee has revamped their entire defense this off-season, and they have been a good run defense in the past with a subpar secondary. Now that Tennesee has improved every level of the defense, they may not be as enticing a matchup as they once were.

Swift was most likely drafted to be a starter for most, so it is understandable if he has to be played. However, if there is another player on the bench who has a better matchup and a clearer role, Swift should be on the bench. Once the roles on the Bears' offense become clearer, Swift will be easier to play, but until then, look for a pivot.

Wide Receivers

Start- Chris Godwin Vs. Commanders:

Godwin let a lot of people down last year, as he only scored 2 touchdowns, had only over 1,000 yards, and had only over 100 yards in a game twice. Due to that, people seem to be fading Godwin this season. Godwin is still the number 2 option in this offense behind Mike Evans, but with Liam Cohen replacing Dave Canales as offensive coordinator, Godwin could be set up for a bounceback.

The Commanders matchup could not be better for Godwin. The Commanders were the league's worst pass defense in 2023, allowing 262.2 yards per game. Cohen's offense heavily features the slot receiver, and Godwin is poised to return to the slot full-time this season, where he has put up his best numbers in the past.

The Commanders hired Dan Quinn (a defensive-minded coach) as their new HC, but the defense is still a work in progress, and the secondary is poised to be amongst the worst in the league again.

Godwin should be much better than last season back in the slot this season. He should thrive in a plus matchup this week against the Commanders in a game that could sneakily be high-scoring.

Start- Jameson Williams Vs. Rams:

Part of fantasy football is taking risks, and there is no better time to take one than in week 1. All off-season, the Lions coaches have done nothing but talk up Jameson Williams and praise him, which has led to many expecting a breakout season.

Williams's first two seasons have been a mess. He was returning from a torn ACL his rookie season and then was suspended for six games last season for gambling. Williams never really got acclimated until late in the season, but he wasn't much of a fantasy asset. This season, he is the clear WR 2 on the Lions and has the chance to start the season off with a bang.

Week 1, Sunday night football, in a playoff rematch, Williams could show everyone who he is as a player, as the Rams matchup is favorable. The Rams added veterans Tre'Davious White and Darious Williams to the secondary, but the Rams' defense is expected to be average at best.

Between Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs, the Rams have their hands full trying to stop all of them, which could lead to more chances for Williams to make plays. Williams has flashed when given the opportunity but has yet to put it all together, and now is the chance to do so.

This is a plus matchup in a game that should be high-scoring. Now that Williams is the clear WR on the offense, he has a real shot to break out. What better time to break out than week 1 on Sunday night? Find a way to get Williams in lineups, as he could single-handedly sway a fantasy matchup this week.

Sit- Jordan Addison Vs. Giants:

Addison had a very strong rookie season, but fantasy managers should temper expectations as Justin Jefferson is back in the lineup, and Sam Darnold is a downgrade from Kirk Cousins. Factor in a top-three receiver in football being healthy again and an unproven quarterback who has been a backup for most of his career entering the lineup, and Addison should see his production dip.

The Giants matchup is not why Addison is on this list but because of the uncertainty of how Sam Darnold will perform. Darnold has shown flashes during his entire career but has never been able to put it all together. Justin Jefferson will be just fine, as he is elite and will be force-fed targets, but will Darnold be able to support two receivers consistently? Addison has been recovering from an injury suffered a few weeks ago, which could limit his usage in week 1, which is another factor in this choice.

Addison's talent is not in question as he would be locked in every week as a starter if Kirk Cousins were still here, but until Sam Darnold shows he can support two options on a week-to-week basis, something he has never done before, Addison should be benched.

Sit- Courtland Sutton Vs. Seahawks:

The Seahawks' defense was disappointing last year, but it should have improved much this year under the new head coach, Mike Macdonald. Macdonald led one of the better units in football last year as the Ravens' defensive coordinator and has many skilled players in Seattle to form an elite defense.

Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon have the potential to form an elite CB duo, and the Seahawks have numerous early draft selections and notable free-agent signings across the defensive line that should help create a solid pass rush. The upside of the Seahawks' secondary alone makes this a scary matchup, but that's not the main reason.

The Broncos will be rolling out rookie QB Bo Nix as their starter, and the Seattle matchup is not great for a first start. Nix is accurate and can make plays with his legs, but most rookie QBs struggle to start the season, and against one of the league's best defensive minds, it will not be a surprise to see Nix struggle. The Broncos will likely want to make life easy on Nix, which will mean running the ball a lot and scheming players open in the short game, and that is not where Sutton thrives.

Sutton is a big, physical receiver who wins downfield, and it seems unlikely Nix will air the ball out in his first career start against the Seahawks' dynamic cornerback duo. Sutton can always come down with a touchdown, but the upside is limited until Nix proves he is a capable starter in the NFL.

Tight Ends

Start- Zach Ertz Vs. Buccaneers:

This is kind of gross, but Ertz is the Commander's starting tight end to start the year, and the Bucs are terrible against tight ends. Last season, the Bucs were the third-worst team against tight ends, giving up 146 fantasy points to the position.

Ertz will not break tackles or run by people, but he will sit down in a zone, catch the ball, and fall, and for fantasy, that is just fine. Rookie quarterbacks need a safety blanket, which is usually the tight end. While Jayden Daniels may take off and run if he feels pressured, Ertz should be his top check-down option.

Ertz feels like a safe 8-12 points for PPR leagues, which is perfectly fine for the tight end position. Ertz is not on the same tier as Kelce, LaPorta, McBride, and others, as he is undrafted everywhere, but he is a starter for the time being and seems to have a very safe and solid floor that most tight ends don't have.

Ertz is perfect for teams that missed out on the top-end talent at tight end and are streaming the position or don't love their week 1 matchup for their other option. Hopefully, later this year, Ben Sinnott will be in this portion of the article, but until then, Ertz is a solid play.

Sit- Cole Kmet Vs. Titans:

The Titans are a terrible matchup for tight ends, but the pre-season snaps are the main reason Kmet is a sit for week 1.

Kmet and Gerald Everett seemingly split snaps with the first-team offense, which, for fantasy purposes, would make both of them non-factors. The Bears have one of the league's best-receiving cores with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze, which means targets could be challenging to find for Kmet even if he played 100% of the snaps.

Splitting snaps for an offense with a rookie quarterback and three uber-talented receivers is not a recipe for success for Kmet. Until the roles on the Bears offense are clear, Kmet should fade everywhere, especially in week 1.

End Of Rant

Those are the critical start sits for the first weekend of the NFL. Make sure you come back next week as I dive into those start-and-sit questions with at least a week of data on every team in the league. Hopefully, this advice can help you start strong in your fantasy leagues.

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