What Is Going On With Pablo Lopez?
In early 2023, the Twins made a blockbuster trade sending Batting Title winner and All-Star Luis Arraez to the Marlins for ace-caliber pitcher Pablo Lopez and two prospects. While Byron Chourio and Jose Salas haven't done anything for the Twins yet, Lopez quickly became an All-Star and a top 3 player for them. He also helped lead the Twins to their first postseason series win since 2002. But now in 2024, Lopez is having his second-worst season as a starter, posting an ERA of 5.33 so far. So what really is going on with Pablo Lopez?
Lopez's Analytical Outlook
Lopez's expected stats against his actual stats have a very clear difference. While his current ERA is 5.33, his expected ERA is 3.25. His strikeout and walk rates are among the best in baseball. These can all show somewhat unluckiness for Lopez as he is playing somewhat correctly but not getting the results. However, with this unluckiness comes some areas where he is just playing badly.
Last year, Lopez capitalized on his ability to get the opponent to chase and keep them from, hitting the bad hard. This year both of those things have doomed him on the mound. Lopez has suddenly lost the ability to get other players to chase his offspeed pitches. Additionally, his pitches are getting hammered by batters this season with his hard hit and barrel rates regressing heavily.
Lopez's Pitch Arsenal
What specific pitches are hampering Lopez's production this year you may ask. Well, his fastball has remained mostly the same despite it being hit for slightly more power and losing some speed. His next best pitch this year has been his changeup but it has also seen some regression. Not only is it getting hit a lot harder, but it's also failing to strike out batters at the rate it did in 2023.
His sweeper was his go-to strikeout pitch in 2023 but opponents seemed to have figured it out, with him surrendering 9 extra-base hits in only 65 at-bats. His curveball has mostly stayed effective despite allowing 3 home runs with it so far. His sinker has quickly become a detrimental pitch to him though. When a hitter faces Pablo Lopez's sinker, they have a batting average of.542 and a slugging percentage of .833 this season.
Can Lopez Come Back To Form?
If we were to base it on analytics, yes, Pablo Lopez should be able to get back to form with a couple of slight tweaks to his mechanics and pitches. He should throw his sinker a lot less and focus more on his sweeper and curveball to get those pitches back to 2023 form. He will continue to get as many starts as he needs for the Twins as the team and fans have full confidence in him as their star pitcher.
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