What Should The Expectations Be For The 2024 Atlanta Falcons?
Atlanta Falcons Offseason Additions
Earlier this offseason, the Atlanta Falcons signed Kirk Cousins, the premiere quarterback on the market, to a large extension that makes him the starter in Atlanta for at least the next two years barring injury or a precipitous drop-off in his play.
This type of move is not one that a rebuilding team makes, despite the fact that they also drafted a quarterback in the top 10. Clearly, Atlanta expects to be competitive - which makes sense, given that owner Arthur Blank is 81 and has not seen his team in the playoffs in seven years.
Further, given that former head coach Arthur Smith was fired but general manager Terry Fontenot was not, it seems that those in charge of the Falcons organization still believe in the roster that has been assembled — except, of course, for the quarterback. Plugging Cousins into that environment produces expectations.
Raheem Morris and the new regime in Atlanta, including rookie offensive coordinator Zach Robinson, were brought in to change not only the results but the tone of the Falcons organization.
While they finished third in the NFC South last year with a 7-10 record, they have leapfrogged all their division rivals to become the favorites to win the South in 2024. BetMGM sets the Falcons preseason win total at 9.5, which, if achieved, would represent significant improvement over the 2023 team. Atlanta is the favorite to win the division. How realistic is that?
Atlanta's Division Competition
In terms of competition, the expectations are certainly not unreasonable. The NFC South is probably the worst division in football. No team fielded a top-10 unit by DVOA in 2023.
The Buccaneers won the division with with a record of only 9-8 and they just lost offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who revived Baker Mayfield’s career in 2023. Whether Mayfield continues to play well without Canales is not a settled question by any means, especially as the supporting cast around him continues to get older.
The Panthers were the worst team in the league last year and have a rookie head coach. The archrival Saints look to be completely rudderless, with an old defense, a bad offensive line with multiple question marks (will Ryan Ramczyk even play?), no receivers after Chris Olave, and an albatross of a contract tying them to Derek Carr. In short, the division is up for grabs.
New Falcons Offensive System
The primary reason to put stock in the 2024 Falcons, though, is still the belief that the changes made this off-season will turn things around. Cousins is obviously the marquee name here, but perhaps equally as important as the quarterback himself is creating a system that allows him to thrive. In that sense, the second most important offseason addition the Falcons made for their 2024 success is new offensive coordinator Zach Robinson, who spent the last five seasons with the Los Angeles Rams as a member of Sean McVay’s staff.
That background with McVay and the Rams’ system is one that Robinson shares with Cousins’ previous play-caller, Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell. It is reasonable, then, to believe that the two offenses will share similar structure and verbiage. That shared background could prove crucial to allowing Cousins to hit the ground running after tearing his Achilles in 2023.
The shared DNA between the offenses has already begun to produce results, at least in early practices. Daniel Flick, who covers the Falcons for Sports Illustrated, reports that OTA’s have included “heavy doses of shifts, speed and pre-snap motion, which linebacker Kaden Elliss said has made life difficult for Atlanta's defense.”
All of these elements are staples of the McVay offense, which took the league by storm in 2017 and 2018 with shifts and motions that included the constant threat of a sweep run paired with play-action.
Robinson commented on the process of meshing the different but similar approaches.
“Kevin O'Connell took from the Rams and did a lot of the same things,” Robinson said. “We're kind of in a combination between what they've done here and the run game and some different things than what we've done with the Rams."
While the ultimate success of Atlanta’s offseason will be measured on the field in the fall, the early indications point to an intuitive pairing of quarterback and system that could finally help the Falcons end their playoff drought.
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