What The Metrics Had To Say About Bristol
The world of sports data is constantly changing, with more information available to teams, athletes, and even the common fan that can be used to predict performance trends. NASCAR is no different, and the author of this post has built several analytical metrics to help give race fans a more advanced view of the action on the track—because, as any driver can attest, auto racing isn't always a fair sport.
The following numbers—explained in full detail here—are designed to measure driver performance in various aspects of each race, many of which come from NASCAR’s Loop Data. They are ranked by True Driver Rating (TDR), a variation on NASCAR’s Driver Rating, which incorporates factors such as speed, track position, passing, luck, and equipment strength to best estimate how well each driver performed during an event.
The metrics from Saturday's Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway are as shown below:
The main takeaway from Bristol goes no further than that Kyle Larson is in a league of his own. His score of 349.2 is the second-highest of the season, behind only his own 355.38 from Las Vegas. His Average Running Position of 1.1 was nearly perfect, and he recorded .8669 of the Expected Wins Earned share. It was an all-time great performance from an all-time great driver, as he won while leading 462 of 500 laps.
Taking "best of the rest" honors was Chase Briscoe, more than 100 TDR points behind Larson at 221.78. Briscoe carried the banner for Stewart-Haas Racing on Saturday night, earning himself top marks in Equipment-Adjusted ARP Score (EARP). He ran in the top five all night before a bad pit stop late dropped him to eighth at the finish.
Just behind Briscoe, Ryan Blaney did an admirable job driving to a sixth-place result after a mediocre qualifying effort, leading the field in True Passer Rating while coming third in TDR. A pair of Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas round out the top five with Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell, who each ran near the front all night.
An impressive third-place result from Bubba Wallace lands him sixth in the metrics, just ahead of second-place finisher Chase Elliott. Elliott steadily worked his way through the running order all night, but just had nothing for his teammate Larson. Ty Gibbs, Michael McDowell, and Alex Bowman round out the top-10, which consists of all drivers who finished the race no worse than 15th.
In fact, only two of those TDR top-10 finishers didn't complete the race inside the top-10, those being Gibbs (15th) and McDowell (11th). On the flip side of the coin, the only drivers in top-10 on the track who weren't there in the metrics are Ross Chastain and Ryan Preece, who finished 10th and seventh respectively.
All of those results are the product of a race that, for the first time in a long time, ran to its completion without any late-race drama. There were only five cautions on Saturday and the final green-flag run was 163 laps, meaning the vast majority of the field earned finishes that reflected their performance. Added all up, Saturday's Fairness Rating of .8329 is the highest since Sonoma, 13 races ago.
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