What The Metrics Had To Say About Michigan
The world of sports data is constantly changing, with more information available to teams, athletes, and even the common fan that can be used to predict performance trends. NASCAR is no different, and the author of this post has built a number of analytical metrics to help give race fans a more advanced view of the action on the track—because, as any driver can attest to, auto racing isn't always a fair sport.
The following numbers – explained in full detail here – are designed to measure driver performance in various aspects of each race, many of which come from NASCAR’s Loop Data. They are ranked by True Driver Rating (TDR), a variation on NASCAR’s Driver Rating, which incorporates factors such as speed, track position, passing, luck, and equipment strength in order to best estimate how well each driver performed during an event.
The metrics from Monday's FireKeepers Casion 400 at Michigan International Speedway are as shown below:
Monday's race at Michigan -- originally scheduled for Sunday, but postponed by rain following the first stage -- was one that didn't really have a dominant driver. Kyle Larson led most of the early stages but crashed just past halfway, and no driver was ahead for more than 41 laps. The best Average Running Position was Chase Elliott at 6.4, and eventual winner Tyler Reddick had to battle back from being deep in the field at one point.
That leaves Martin Truex, Jr. to take the TDR win, with a score of 212.63. Truex had one of the fastest cars, leading 28 laps and scoring a race-high pass differential of +28. He seemed poised for a top-five finish but made minor contact with the wall in the closing laps. This brought out a rather unnecessary caution that shuffled the finishing order and cost several drivers -- including Truex, who fell to 24th -- the results they otherwise deserved.
William Byron ended up just behind him and was also runner-up to Reddick on the track. Byron had his best run since Memorial Day weekend's Coca-Cola 600. He was able to battle back from poor track position there to run solidly among the leaders through the closing stages.
Reddick wound up third in TDR, though it's worth noting he edged out Truex for the highest share of Expected Wins Earned (XWE) at .2017. He may not have had the best car all race, but he put himself in position up front at the right time. Despite yet another chaotic finish, it's safe to say this race at least still ended with a deserving winner.
Behind him, Kyle Busch -- who has had a trying 2024 season, to say the least -- had one of his best races in some time. He ended up with a fourth-place effort both on the track and in the metrics. He'll need more than that to make the playoffs, but it goes to show he hasn't lost his ability to contend for wins when his cars are fast enough and when he remains mistake-free.
Rounding out the top five is Chase Elliott, who was one of the victims of the overtime shuffle along with Truex. After leading 29 laps and running in the top five late in the going, Elliott fell to 15th on the final restart. That would never have happened had NASCAR left the race green when Truex brushed the wall. For that reason, the finishes of Elliott, Truex, and others (Ryan Blaney and Ross Chastain additionally were top-10 in the metrics but much further down in the results) are attributed to bad luck more than their own mistakes.
Drivers who benefitted from the late-race chaos were Daniel Suarez, Denny Hamlin, and especially Zane Smith. All three of them were outside the top 15 in TDR but finished in the top 10 on the track, taking advantage of their opportunity to pounce on the misfortune of others. Since this is an opportunity they should not have had to begin with, the metrics recognize that their finishes were largely a result of luck.
Some shoutouts are in order for Erik Jones and Carson Hocevar for enjoying solid runs in which they outperformed their below-average equipment. Hocevar has come on hot as of late, with his second consecutive top-10 finish on the track. Jones, on the other hand, looks for any bright spot he can find in what has been a tumultuous season for him and his Legacy Motor Club team.
Due to the random nature of Monday's finish (the third consecutive Cup Series race to have at least one overtime attempt), it was yet another disappointing Fairness Rating of .5328. With a return to the tight packs at Daytona next Saturday night, don't expect that one to be much better either.