What The Metrics Had To Say About The Charlotte Roval
The world of sports data is constantly changing, with more information available to teams, athletes, and even the common fan that can be used to predict performance trends. NASCAR is no different, and the author of this post has built several analytical metrics to help give race fans a more advanced view of the action on the track—because, as any driver can attest, auto racing isn't always a fair sport.
The following numbers—explained in full detail here—are designed to measure driver performance in various aspects of each race, many of which come from NASCAR’s Loop Data. They are ranked by True Driver Rating (TDR), a variation on NASCAR’s Driver Rating, which incorporates factors such as speed, track position, passing, luck, and equipment strength to best estimate how well each driver performed during an event.
The metrics from Sunday's Bank of America ROVAL 400 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway infield road course are as shown below:
It should be no surprise that Kyle Larson cleaned up in the metrics, given his dominant performance on the track, where he led 62 of 109 laps. Larson's TDR score of 283.03 is the fifth-highest any driver has recorded in an individual race in 2024, and three of the better ones were his own marks at Las Vegas, Darlington, and Bristol. Simply put, Larson is on a different level from the rest of the field this season.
Christopher Bell finished second to Larson on the track but ended up third in the metrics, behind road racing ace A.J. Allmendinger. Allmendinger might have had the best car aside from Larson on Sunday, but he took on fresh tires under late caution, which forced him to drive through the field. He was able to make his way back to sixth, still earning himself a solid result.
Alternate pit strategies played a major role for many other drivers, as they often do on road courses. Playoff contenders Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney each went for maximum bonus points at the end of the first two stages, but in doing so, they sacrificed valuable track positions. Elliott scored the best True Pass Differential, while Blaney had the highest True Passer Rating mark, as both fought their way back to top-10 finishes. They appear near the top of the metrics chart, with Elliott in fourth place and Blaney in sixth.
Just ahead of Blaney and rounding out the top five is his teammate Austin Cindric, who entered the race likely needing a win to advance in the playoffs. He gave it his all, and though his fourth-place finish wasn't quite enough, it was an impressive run nonetheless. Behind him and Blaney, Shane van Gisbergen, Joey Logano, Bubba Wallace, and Carson Hocevar earned top-10 rankings as well.
Slightly further down the list is William Byron, who finished third. The metrics weren't quite as friendly to him, as he and his No. 24 team played a track position-friendly pit strategy, allowing him to move toward the front without making very many passes. Byron's Hendrick Motorsports teammate Alex Bowman is also notable, as his finishing position was disqualified by NASCAR. Since the driver cannot control such circumstances, he is credited with his original 18th-place spot and the rating he would have received.
Byron's discrepancy between his result and level of performance is surprisingly one of the only notable inconsistencies this week. In fact, all of the top 13 finishers on Sunday also finished in the top 13 in TDR, albeit in a different order. That gives Charlotte Roval a Fairness Rating of .8901, the fairest race of the 2024 season. Hopefully, with four non-drafting ovals completing the remainder of the schedule, that trend continues.
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