Wide Receivers Are Not Worth The Contract

The wide receiver market in the NFL is skyrocketing. Justin Jefferson is making a league-high $35 million per year and CeeDee Lamb is just behind him at $34 million. The Cincinnati Bengals are expected to eventually pay their All-Pro wide receiver, Ja'Marr Chase somewhere in the vicinity of $40 million a year.

There's no doubting the production of the highest-paid receivers, but does the production justify the contract? It's important not to look just at production but to take a more advanced look at production per contract dollar. This is not unlike looking at miles per gallon in a vehicle instead of looking at just the size of the tank or number of miles a tank can fuel the vehicle.

All-Pro Wide Receivers Value

To understand the value of the contract, this article will examine the six highest-paid receivers and their production in 2023 (to be fair, Justin Jefferson's 2022 season will be used). Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, Amon-Ra St Brown, and Brandon Aiyuk make a combined $191 million per year.

The six receivers combined for 682 catches, 9,670 yards, and 57 touchdowns. Dividing these numbers into their annual salaries, their respective teams are paying $197,518 for every 10 receiving yards, $280,058 for every reception, and $3,550,877 for every touchdown catch. Not exactly money well spent.

Rookie Wide Receivers Value

There were 14 wide receivers selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft last season. The first was Jaxon Smith-Njigba to Seattle with the 20th overall pick, and the last of these was Tre Tucker, taken 100th overall by the Las Vegas Raiders.

The 14 receivers combined for 672 receptions, 8,327 yards, and 51 touchdowns. They also made a combined $21.35 million last season. This equates to $25,659 for every 10 receiving yards, $31,770 per catch, and $418,627 per touchdown catch. Just like a two-pound box of cereal for $5 versus a four-pound box for $20, rookie receivers give a team more bang for their buck than an All-Pro receiver.

Conclusion: Draft Wide Receivers, Don't Pay Them

Just like running backs are bad investments (never take them in the first round and never give them a second contract), wide receivers are also not worth the payday. It's better to draft a rookie wide receiver than it is to pay one big money because teams will get more production per dollar spent out of the young bucks.

There are some who believe good quarterbacks need good receivers, but they need look no further than Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes to see how a team can win a Super Bowl without a top-flight wide receiver. It may be unfair to compare quarterbacks to two of the greatest ever, but then have a look at Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love.

In his first seasons as a starter, without an All-Pro receiver, he racked up 4,159 yards passing (7th in the NFL, ahead of quarterbacks with significantly better receiver rooms), 32 touchdowns (2nd in the NFL), and completed 64.2% of his passes. Quarterback is a great investment. So is an offensive line to protect him, or pass rushers and cover corners to thwart opposing quarterbacks. Spending big money on productive receivers is as good as burning those Benjamins in a fireplace.