Would the Real Packers’ WR1 Please Stand Up?

There may not be a harder wide receiver room to assess than the Green Bay Packers. Any of these young players could break out and be Jordan Love’s WR1, but who?

---

Comparing the Packers' Receivers

The assumed top four receivers for the Packers this upcoming season are Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Dobbs, and Dontayvion Wicks. Each of them has their own unique skill set that brings along both pros and cons to their style of play. Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks are the deep threats, Romeo Doubs is the reliable possession receiver, and Jayden Reed is the YAC specialist. 

By comparing each player’s per-game production using stats from PFF, it will be easier to visualize the assumed pecking order. Only Romeo Doubs played the entire 17-week season, hence the reason for a per-game average rather than a full season.

Targets

🟢 Christian Watson: 5.89

🟡 Jayden Reed: 5.63

🟠 Romeo Dobbs: 5.47

🔴 Dontayvion Wicks: 3.8

Receptions

🟢  Jayden Reed: 4

🟡 Romeo Doubs: 3.47

🟠 Christian Watson: 3.1

🔴 Dontayvion Wicks: 2.6

Yards

🟢 Jayden Reed: 49.56

🟡 Christian Watson: 46.89

🟠 Dontayvion Wicks: 38.67

🔴 Romeo Doubs: 36.65 

Yards/Reception

🟢 Christian Watson: 15.1

🟡 Dontayvion Wicks: 14.9

🟠Jayden Reed: 12.4

🔴 Romeo Doubs: 11.4

Yards After the Catch/Reception

🟢 Dontayvion Wicks: 5.6

🟡 Jayden Reed: 5.4

🟠 Christian Watson: 3.8

🔴 Romeo Doubs: 2.3

Yards/Route Run

🟢 Jayden Reed: 2.05

🟡Dontayvion Wicks: 2.04

🟠Christian Watson: 1.56

🔴 Romeo Doubs: 1.32

Touchdowns

🟢 Christian Watson: 0.56

🟡 Jayden Reed: 0.5

🟠 Romeo Doubs: 0.47

🔴 Dontayvion Wicks 0.27

(Grading Scale: green=4, yellow =3, orange=2, red=1)

Final Ranking:

🟢 Jayden Reed: 23

🟡 Christian Watson: 21

🟠 Dontayvion Wicks: 15

🔴 Romeo Doubs: 12

Statistically speaking, Jayden Reed was the Packer's WR1 and Jordan Love’s favorite target when they got rolling, averaging six targets a game in the second half of the season. His 2.05 yards per route run would rank 19th among receivers with 90 or more targets. Out of the four Packers’ receivers, Reed was the most impressive in 2023. Now, even though he is the assumed number one option, that does not mean he is necessarily the alpha. 

Realistically, each of these receivers will have their weeks as Love’s “go-to guy”, with Reed being the most consistent option. Jordan Love has even come out and said “The Packers do not have a true number one guy, but rather guys who can come out and be the one any given day.” (per NFL.com) This is a luxury for Love and coach Matt LaFleur, but it is incredibly frustrating for fantasy managers.

---

Fantasy Outlook:

For the 2024 fantasy football season, none of the Packers receivers are taken inside the top 24 since no receiver separates themselves from the others. They are relatively cheap, but two display more value than the others. The first was Christian Watson at WR41. His talent is undeniable, having an elite stretch of four games in the 2023 season in which he would have seven touchdowns and fantasy finishes as the WR3, WR8, WR10, and WR8. The risk in drafting Watson is his injury history. In his two years in the league, he has already missed 11 games. Even with the injury bug, Watson is worth the risk in the ninth round of redraft leagues since he is a freakish athlete. 

The other receiver is Dontayvion Wicks. He is the cheapest of the Packers receivers at WR65 and carries little risk with his current ADP. He only played 70% or more of the snaps in two games this past season, but in those games, he finished as the WR20 and the WR5. His yards per route run is very encouraging for the limited amount of snaps he had and couldform a nice one-two punch with Jayden Reed if he can get on the field more. Wicks is a great late-round pick and a potential diamond in the rough if he gets more regular playing time. 

When it comes to Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs, they can be faded at their ADP for two different reasons. For one, Jayden Reed is the priciest, being drafted as the WR36 and 81st overall. There are other players drafted around him who have a clearer path to success as well as a more stable floor. 

The issue with Romeo Doubs is that he does not have the kind of athleticism the other three receivers do, which does limit his upside. He can be penciled in at about four receptions and 50 yards every game, but he rarely has spike weeks (other than his 27.1 points scored in the wild-card round last year.) He possesses a solid floor but has a lower ceiling than the other three making him a less than desirable pick even at WR53.