Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Preview
Once again, the Yankees will face a very familiar foe when the American League Championship Series begins on Monday night at Yankee Stadium. Much like the Yankees, the Guardians did not take the path of least resistance to get here.
How Exactly Did Cleveland Get Here?
In the bottom of the fifth inning in Game Five, the Guardians took charge. Cleveland centerfielder Lane Thomas launched a grand slam off of presumptive American League Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.
As is always the case in postseason baseball, the most unlikely occurrence saved one team's season, and closed the door on the other club's campaign. Skubal had not allowed a single run in 17 consecutive innings this postseason, and Lane Thomas - who was a trade deadline acquisition for Cleveland - had hardly been producing.
In 53 regular season games with Cleveland, Thomas posted a .657 OPS and hit just .209. How apropos, then, that it was he who saved his team's season against the finest pitcher in baseball this year. The Guardians won the ALDS against the Tigers, and they now face the Yankees yet again in October.
Prior to their epic tilt against Detroit, Cleveland had a healthy six-game lead in the AL Central through July. The Royals had narrowed the gap by the conclusion of August when Cleveland's lead had shrunk to two-and-a-half games.
When the regular season ended, Cleveland emerged as the AL Central division winner for the fifth time in nine seasons.
What Is Cleveland's Offensive Identity?
Per Fangraphs, here are some regular-season offensive rankings for Cleveland:
fifth in stolen bases (148)
21st in walk rate (7.9%)
fifth-lowest strikeout rate (20.2%)
22nd in batting average (.238)
18th in on-base percentage (.307)
17th in OPS (.703)
16th in slugging (.395)
second in soft hit rate (18.6%)
29th in hard hit rate (28.7%)
30th in average exit velocity (87.7 mph)
fifth in bunt hits (21)
Cleveland thrives on soft contact and generating offense the old-fashioned way - with the running game and small ball. They are prone to mistakes on the basepaths, though. Cleveland base runners recorded 56 outs on base, which was the third-most in the regular season.
The Cleveland Starting Pitching Factory Declined This Year
This is a franchise that has produced Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Shane Bieber. The Guardians' rotation was a liability this year. That comes with some much-needed context, though, because Daniel Espino and 2020 Cy Young winner Shane Bieber both sustained season-ending injuries in April.
Cleveland's rotation ranked near the bottom of the majors in ERA (4.40, 24th), FIP (4.51, also 24th), WHIP (1.32, 23rd), and strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.63 to 1, 24th).
Tanner Bibee - who finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting last year - did a fine job at anchoring a rotation battered by injuries. The former fifth-rounder finished the regular season with a 3.47 ERA, 3.56 FIP, and struck out almost 200 batters.
The rest of Cleveland's rotation includes Ben Lively, Matthew Boyd, Alex Cobb, and Gavin Williams. Lively struggled throughout the season. Boyd and Cobb excelled in limited action during the regular season. Williams struggled in 76 innings of work.
It is worth noting that Guardians' rotation registered a 1.96 ERA in the divisional series against the Tigers. They also fanned almost 28% of Detroit batters.
Cleveland's Bullpen Is Its Elixir
This is what makes Cleveland good. Their bullpen features Emmanuel Clase - the best closer in The Show - in addition to Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, and Pedro Avila.
Overall, the numbers are not close. Cleveland's bullpen finished the regular season with the lowest ERA (2.57), FIP (3.30), and held opposing hitters to a .200 average. Their vaunted late-inning arms also allowed the third-fewest hits, too.
Bar none, the Guardians have a plethora of options to choose from to shut down games. Oh, and Emmanuel Clase led all relievers with a 0.61 ERA and notched 47 saves. Whatever deficiencies Cleveland may have, their bullpen certainly compensates for a few of them.
Yet Again, the Yankees Face a Familiar Foe
The Yankees-Royals ALDS matchup was nostalgic for older Yanks fans. With the Guardians, fans of almost any age have a fondness towards postseason games between the two because they have met frequently.
This ALCS will be the seventh postseason meeting between these two. They met in the 2022 ALDS, with Cleveland taking a 2-1 lead, and the Yankees battling back to win the series 3-2.
Previous October matchups include the 2020 wild card series, the 2017 ALDS, the 2007 ALDS, and the 1998 ALCS and 1997 ALDS. The Yankees bested Cleveland in 2017, despite trailing 2-0 in the series. They won in 2020, too. Cleveland dispatched the Yankees in 2007 and 1997, and the Yankees got revenge in 1998 as they became the greatest baseball team ever.
How Do The Yankees Compare With Cleveland Offensively?
Unlike the Guardians, the Yankees relied on power and the long ball to score runs. Granted, the Yankees are not averse to playing their own small ball.
The Yankees in 2024 ranked:
first in home runs (237)
third in runs (815)
first in walk rate (10.8%)
fourth in slugging (.429)
third in on-base percentage (.333)
second in wRC+ (117)
third in OPS (.761)
fifth in hard hit rate (33%)
first in exit velocity (90.1 mph)
second in sacrifice flies (57)
Positional Analysis
Catcher
Advantage: Yankees
Austin Wells was one of the best catchers in baseball all year long. While his ALDS numbers were underwhelming, he still had some key moments.
Cleveland's Bo Naylor struck out 30.3% of the time during the season and hit just .201 with a .614 OPS. He and Wells are equal defensively, but Wells's superior bat takes the cake.
First Base
Advantage: Guardians
Aaron Boone used Jon Berti and Oswaldo Cabrera at first base sans Rizzo. Ben Rice could make the ALCS roster, but Josh Naylor is better than anyone the Yanks put at first, even if Rizzo returns.
Second Base
Advantage: Yankees
Gleyber Torres was the second-best second baseman during the second half of the season and has a gaudy postseason resume. Andres Gimenez had an on-base percentage below .300 and has a .666 OPS over his last 30 games.
Shortstop
Advantage: Yankees
Both Volpe and Rocchio were putrid offensively, but both are two of the best fielders at their position. Volpe's bat does more, so slight edge to the Yankees.
Third Base
Advantage: Guardians
Aaron Boone is effusive in his praise of Jose Ramirez - and rightfully so. Ramirez was the starting third baseman for the AL All-Star Team and is truly a generational player. Jazz Chisholm brings very nice bravado and production to the Yankees himself, but he is simply not J-Ram.
Outfield
Advantage: Yankees
Aaron Judge has to be better in this series, but he's still Aaron Judge. The great Juan Soto and the gritty Alex Verdugo round out the best outfield in baseball. Steven Kwan is great, but Lane Thomas and Will Brennan are not in the same universe as Judge and Soto.
Rotation
Advantage: Yankees
Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, and Luis Gil comprise a $66.6 million rotation this year. The first three were underwhelming in the first three games of the ALDS, but Cole bounced back with a nice Game Four.
Cleveland's rotation held Detroit down, but their numbers during the regular season cannot be overlooked. It'll be Rodon vs Cobb in Game One, and Cole vs Bibee in Game Two. Clarke Schmidt will start Game Three, while Cleveland's starter remains undetermined.
Slight edge to the Yankees here. They faced tougher lineups all year long, and they've got the star power.
Bullpen
Advantage: Guardians
This is closer than most fans might think. Luke Weaver has become an elite closer. Clay Holmes has found his groove as a setup man/seventh-inning guy, and Ian Hamilton, Tommy Kahnle, Jake Cousins, and Tim Hill round out a still-formidable bullpen. Don't forget that this bullpen did not allow a single earned run in the ALDS.
Cleveland, however, has the best closer in the game, and a bevy of other elite arms. From Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis to Tim Herrin and Pedro Avila, the Guardians have a deeper bullpen. Edge to the Guardians.
The Final Verdict
Jose Ramirez and Cleveland's bullpen will make this a very competitive ALCS. The Yankees, though, are armed with a $314.8 million payroll that more than doubles Cleveland's $139.7 payroll.
With the exception of first base, left field, and the bullpen, the Yankees are better. They also have home field advantage against a Guardians team that went just 42-39 on the road during the regular season.
Baseball's greatest franchise will defeat Cleveland in six games and return to the World Series for the first time since 2009.
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