Yankees Vs. Royals ALDS Preview

My prediction about the Orioles-Royals wild card series was wrong. One year after the franchise's worst season, the Royals shut down the Orioles and advanced to the ALDS.

For the first time since 1980, the Yankees and Royals will play each other in October. Despite the nearly 50-year hiatus in postseason meetings, there is much boisterous history. Naturally, the historical context is enlightening. A five-day stretch in October of 1976 is where it began.

The 1976 ALCS Set The Stage

The Yankees, just three years after being purchased by George Steinbrenner, were once again championship contenders. With an ebullient new boss and a gaudy roster, the Yanks were ready to take the next step.

Said roster featured Thurman Munson, Reggie Jackson, Willie Randolph, Ron Guidry, Roy White, Craig Nettles, Goose Gossage, and other studs. Fervent manager Billy Martin was tasked with the stewardship of this gritty, scrappy bunch.

Kansas City was no pushover, either. This was the team's first playoff appearance, and it began a decade of excellence for The Blue Crew.

Of course, effervescent Hall of Fame third baseman George Brett had already rose to superstardom. Alongside him, the baseball team from the Paris of the Plains boasted a plethora of talent, too.

There was five-time All-Star centerfielder Amos Otis and Hal McRae as their contact-oriented DH. They also had a deep rotation and bullpen with Dennis Leonard, Al Fitzmorris, Mark Littell, and Marty Pattin.

The 1976 ALCS came down to an elimination game. Yankees first baseman Chris Chamblis hit a walk-off, pennant-clinching, home run off of the aforementioned Littell. It was the first walk-off home run to end a league championship series in MLB history.

History Would Repeat Itself Twice In Four Years

The Yankees won two more pennants against the Royals in 1977 and 1978. The Royals did exact their revenge, however, in 1980, when they swept the Yankees in the ALCS.

Kansas City would finally win its first World Series title in 1985. Bret Saberhagen won MVP in that year's Fall Classic.

The Yankees were already in the midst of a long championship drought by then, but the Royals would not make another postseason appearance until 2014, when they won the pennant.

Why Kansas City Instead of Baltimore?

Most Yankees fans almost certainly preferred the Royals to the Orioles. The Yankees finished 5-8 against Baltimore in the regular season, and never really played up to par against them.

On the other hand, the Yankees took five of seven games against the Royals this year and outscored them 42-24. In three of those games, the Yankees scored ten or more runs.

Not to be dismissive of Kansas City; after all, the Royals just swept the team that had the Yankees' number most of this year and last year. From a positional matchup standpoint, this ALDS against a once-perennial October foe just makes more sense.

What Is The Royals' Identity?

The Royals evolved from a 106-loss team last year into a contender. They are a young, athletic and disciplined team that plays sound, fundamental baseball.

Per Fangraphs, the Royals have the following ranks:

• first in Outs Above Average (36) - meaning they are the best fielding team in the majors

• seventh in Defensive Runs Saved, another defensive metric that favors them

• 11th in stolen bases (134)

• second in pull rate (43.8%) - meaning that they hit the ball to the pull side of the field very often

• second in sac flies (54)

• fifth in sacrifice bunts (23)

• second in starting pitcher ERA (3.55) and fourth in FIP (3.68)

• 20th in home runs (170)

Clearly, the Royals know how to do a lot of things very well. They know how to play small ball, they thrive on a contact-heavy approach at the plate, and they are effective in the running game. Their $77 million investment in Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo has propelled their rotation to arguably the best in baseball - never mind that Cole Ragans was traded for, too.

The Royals also let the rotation go deep into games and they flash the leather quite often. They do all of those things better than almost every other team, and that is why they made it this far.

What Do The Yankees Do Well?

They've been called the Bronx Bombers since 1903 for a reason, right?

To that point, the dichotomy of the offensive approaches between these two could not be more apparent. Here are some numbers for the Yankees, per Fangraphs:

• first in home runs (237)

• 24th in stolen bases (88)

• first in walk rate (10.8%)

• fourth in slugging (.429)

• third in OPS (.761)

• second in hard hit rate (42.3%)

• first in average exit velocity (90.1 mph)

New York clearly has a contrasting approach at the plate to that of Kansas City. The Yankees are also one of the better defensive squads, too - although they are not on Kansas City's level when it comes to showing off the glove.

While the Yankees' rotation is not as good statistically, they still have Gerrit Cole as their ace. Carlos Rodon, whose struggles have been well-documented, was one of the best starting pitchers in the majors in the second half of this season.

Rodon's second-half ERA of 2.91 was the ninth-best in the AL, and he also had the third-best strikeout rate (30%) and sixth-most strikeouts overall (83) in the Junior Circuit.

Gil is going to get Rookie of the Year votes - and he could outright win it. While his last two starts were bad, he has still helped to stabilize a rotation that had glaring question marks all over it entering spring training.

The Bullpens Set These Teams Apart

Yes, Clay Holmes came within one blown save of tying the record for the most in a season. Yes, he cannot be entrusted in a high-leverage situation.

That being said, Aaron Boone has since utilized Luke Weaver for the closer role, a job that the former first-round pick has executed masterfully. Tommy Kahnle, Clarke Schmidt, Ian Hamiton, and now Marcus Stroman form a formidable collection of late-inning arms.

By the end of the regular season, the Yankees' bullpen finished seventh in ERA (3.62) and eighth in average against (.223). Kansas City's bullpen ranked 25th in average against and 20th in ERA.

Positional Analysis

There is no question that Kansas City has star power. Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr just won the batting title and would win MVP if not for Aaron Judge. Salvador Perez has been among the best catchers in the majors since his debut in 2011.

All pleasantries aside, the Yankees are better at every position outside of shortstop, catcher, and first base. A deeper look proves that. The pitching was already scrutinized, so the other positions will be looked at instead

Catcher

Advantage: Royals

No question about this. Salvador Perez is one of the most decorated catchers of this century and is still playing at an elite level. Austin Wells faded down the stretch, and his inexperience simply pales in comparison to his counterpart.

First Base

Advantage: Royals

This would be different if Anthony Rizzo were healthy, but Vinnie Pasquantino offers more than Ben Rice can right now. He went 2/7 with an RBI in his return against Baltimore.

Second Base

Advantage: Yankees

Gleyber Torres is as streaky as any hitter, but his second-half OPS of .780 was better than all but one second baseman - Gavin Lux. Torres's postseason production can't be ignored, either. Michael Massey provides a solid all-around game, but Torres enters this series with a hot bat and some good October credentials.

Shortstop

Advantage: Royals

Bobby Witt Jr won the batting title, had a terrific campaign, and drove in both go-ahead runs in the wild card series. Anthony Volpe brings great defense, but his bat has been a liability since last year.

Third Base

Advantage: Yankees

The trade for Jazz Chisholm finally gave the Yankees a legitimate threat at the hot corner. Since being traded, he accrued the third-most WAR at his position and registered an .825 OPS. Maikel Garcia is a legit base running threat, but he is not Jazz Chisholm.

Outfield

Advantage: Yankees

This is not remotely close. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto had arguably the greatest season ever for a duo, and Judge is going to win his second MVP. Jasson Dominguez's upside outweighs that of MJ Melendez and Tommy Pham. Kansas City's outfield is one of the least productive in the majors all year.

DH

Advantage: Yankees

Giancarlo Stanton had a respectable rebound season, and his .963 postseason OPS speaks for itself. The Royals fluctuate at DH often, but they can't emulate Stanton.

The Final Verdict

The Yankees have owned the Royals for a long time, and 2024 is no exception. The Royals will make this a competitive series, but the Yankees have a deeper lineup, a better bullpen, and a battle-tested roster. Yankees in four games.

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