Zay Flowers In Line For Year Two Fantasy Breakout?
Zay Flowers is coming off of a solid rookie season. He had 108 targets (26th), 77 receptions (22nd), and 858 yards (33rd among WRs). These numbers aren't mind-blowing, but we've been spoiled by performances from rookie Wide Receivers like Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, and Puka Nacua each of the last four seasons. Flowers' numbers are solid, and the Ravens did not add much to their Wide Receiver core to threaten his target share.
The Ravens added rookie Devontez Walker in the 4th round of the draft. Walker will play a different role and may not see an immediate role. Odell Beckham Jr. departed this off-season with his 64 targets, the 2nd most on the team last year. Baltimore's defense also lost some key contributors this off-season. Last year, their defense led the NFL in points allowed (16.2 per game).
This led to many positive game scripts, allowing them to run the most rushing plays in the league. A regression from the Baltimore defense should mean more passing attempts. Two factors weigh against Flowers seeing an increase in targets in 2024. Those factors are Derrick Henry and Mark Andrews. Derrick Henry signed a two-year, $16 million deal with the Ravens this offseason.
The team with the most rushing attempts last season brings in the Running Back that has led the NFL in rushing attempts every season since 2018 (excluding 2021 due to injury). Henry is a significant upgrade from their rushing leader last year, Gus Edwards. Mark Andrews's return from injury is another major factor that could take away from Flowers' increasing targets. Andrews played just 9 full games last year from Week 2 - Week 10. In the 9 games Andrews and Flowers played, Flowers had zero finishes as a WR1, one as a WR2, three as a WR3, and FIVE as a WR4+.
In the 7 games where Andrews missed under 15% of the game or less, Flowers had three finishes as a WR1, two as a WR2, zero as a WR3, and two as a WR4+. That is a massive difference in what Flowers is giving your fantasy team. If you look at what caused the spike in his production, it was not the receptions or yards but the touchdowns.
Touchdowns are typically not a sticky statistic year in and year out, but with the Ravens having so few receiving options, Flowers could be more involved in the red zone if Andrews and Henry are to miss time. Flowers' ADP is sitting 45th overall and WR25 off the board (per FantasyPros). However, Flowers has room to grow and plenty of opportunity in front of him; a late 4th round ADP makes Flowers a high-risk, high-reward option this year.
Our consensus projections for Flowers in the 2024 season would be: 84 receptions, 1038 yards, 6 touchdowns through the air and 4 carries for 22 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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