Roki Sasaki is considered one of the most highly coveted free agents this offseason, and teams are salivating at his potential. Throwing an average fastball between 96 and 98 mph, which can reach 102 at the age of 23, is an absolute gem for an MLB pitcher. Sasaki showcased his skillset throughout the World Baseball Classic in 2023, giving a teaser of what the Japanese prodigy can bring. With his decision looming, many in the MLB world wonder where Sasaki will land, but three likely markets may have the best chance at him.
Looking deeper into Roki Sasaki, he’s a phenomenon who, if he can live up to his potential, can definitely propel an MLB franchise and beef up a rotation. He first made headlines in 2021 when he posted a 1.84 ERA over 16 starts in Japan. He then threw a perfect game in 2022 for the Chiba Lotte Marines in NPB, where he had 19 strikeouts. Sasaki had all eyes on him during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, becoming a pivotal pitcher throughout Japan’s quest to victory.
Sasaki threw 26 pitches at over 100 mph against Mexico in the semifinals. That type of arm is absurd, and according to MLB, Sasaki is the fifth player since the pitch-tracking era to throw a minimum of 25 pitches over 100 mph.
His go-to pitch, the fastball, reached an average of about 96.8 mph in 2024 and had a lower whiff rate (13.1 percent in 2024 vs 24 percent in 2023), but scouts say as long as there are no injury concerns, his fastball would be just fine. Sasaki’s splitter is one that MLB hitters should watch out for, as it has a 57.1 percent whiff rate.
Comparing his splitter whiff rate to the MLB average of 34.5 percent, Sasaki’s splitter is at an elite level, only rivaled by Fernando Cruz’s splitter, which whiffs at 59.3 percent.
Scouts have graded his slider above average, with a 40.7 percent whiff rate in 2024 at 83 to 85 mph, slightly lower than his whiff rate in 2023 of 48.6 percent at high the 80s. These slightly lower whiff rates are something to look at, but it doesn’t deny Sasaki’s great potential in the MLB. Even with these slightly lower whiff rates, he still posted an ERA of 2.35 with an average strikeout rate of 10.5 K/9 and a BB of 2.6/9.
He will likely be going through an adjustment period similar to Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s during the beginning of the season. Getting used to MLB batters, making slight adjustments, and having the right pitching coach can give Roki Sasaki the tools to be a force in the league.
Roki Sasaki has not made it completely clear where he wants to go. It’s believed he will sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers, as it is an obvious choice. Teaming up with Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the 2023 World Baseball Classic already gives the Dodgers an advantage with their chemistry, and the Dodgers are coming off a World Series Championship.
These factors may convince Sasaki to be a fellow contributor to a potential Dodgers dynasty for years to come, and he’ll be playing alongside his World Baseball Classic teammates.
Another likely choice for Sasaki is to land south of Los Angeles, in San Diego. Sasaki was also a teammate of the Padres’ own Yu Darvish. Darvish stated that he and Sasaki spent much time together while playing in the World Baseball Classic and would discuss and go over film.
Sasaki said he looked up to Darvish, who greatly influenced his career. Having Darvish by his side in the starting lineup can give San Diego an advantage in scooping up Sasaki and having him play alongside his idol.
The Yankees have already beefed up their starting rotation, but it would not hurt them to add another starting pitcher to their lineup. Rumors of trading Marcus Stroman loom over the Yankees organization recently, but it’s possible they trade Stroman for some infield help, which leaves the door open for room to add in Sasaki.
Sasaki also had looked up to another Japanese pitcher, Masahiro Tanaka, when he was growing up. While Tanaka no longer plays with the Yankees or the MLB, Sasaki can look to pick up the mantle and create his own legacy in pinstripes. Sasaki has previously stated his reason for coming to the MLB is to become the best baseball player in the world.
The Yankees can utilize their branding and pitch their vision to Sasaki becoming the best baseball player he can be while playing with one of the best franchises in sports.
Whichever team lands Roki Sasaki will be gifted with a pitcher who has nasty stuff and can propel a team to great heights. Whether it be for one of the three teams listed above or a sleeper team, the MLB will be delighted to have another Japanese player in the league where fans can tune in and watch. Only time will tell where Sasaki will sign, but he will be an absolute game-changer in whichever franchise he chooses.
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