Sam Darnold just had a career year for the Minnesota Vikings. He completed 66.2% of his passes for 4,319 yards (254 yards per game), 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. His 102.5 passer rating was good for fifth in the NFL. There may be some speculation that Darnold has earned himself a significant payday, and that he’s ready to join the $50 million per year club. The reality is, he’d be lucky to get a multi year deal this offseason, and if he does, it will probably be closer to an AAV of $30 million.
The best comp for Darnold might be Baker Mayfield, whose career trajectory paralleled Darnold’s in some ways going into the 2023 season. They were both taken with a top-three pick in the 2018 NFL Draft (Mayfield first overall and Darnold third). Both quarterbacks led below-average teams and failed to meet their draft day expectations. They both had one good season and were then faced with signing a new contract.
Mayfield earned a 3-year deal, worth $100 million, with half of that guaranteed. That’s an AAV of $33.3 million, and it’s actually north of what Darnold could be expected to get. For starters, Baker re-signed with his team, he didn’t leave in free agency. Darnold will not be brought back on a multi-year deal, with JJ McCarthy not only waiting in the wings but ready to take over as the starter.
Even though both players struggled before a career year, Mayfield had the edge in his pre-breakout stats. He completed 61.4% of his passes to Darnold’s 59.7. Baker also threw over 100 touchdowns to Darnold’s 63, and led the Browns to a playoff appearance. His first season in Tampa Bay was less of an anomaly and more of showing what he can do on a good team. Darnold had better numbers in 2024 than Baker had in 2023, but his past performance is a larger looming question mark for a prospective team.
Darnold is likely to play on a one-year, prove-it-again deal, and the dollar figure could be around $25 million. What team or teams would be willing to give him that chance? Here are a few potential landing spots.
Reports are circulating that new Saints head coach Kellen Moore is not sold on returning quarterback Derek Carr. He is just the latest in a long line of coaches who have not been impressed with Carr’s game-manager style. New Orleans is facing a $51 million cap hit for Carr in 2025, and cutting him as a post-June1st release, they could spread that out over the next two years. Bringing Darnold in for $25 million would be the same hit as if they kept Carr, but would allow them to move on, potentially find a long-term starter, or at the very least, a stop-gap quarterback.
Spencer Rattler may or may not be a long-term solution, and that uncertainty is why they will look to bring in a free agent quarterback. The team currently has the ninth overall pick in the NFL Draft, and if the plan is to find a franchise player from the collegiate level, they won’t do that until 2026.
Anthony Richardson has been a bust, and before the Colts took an ill-advised shot on him, they were the place that recycled quarterbacks at the end of their careers (Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco). At just 27 years old, Darnold is not a quarterback facing the sun setting on his NFL career. He could be a potential quarterback of the future for Indy. They have the 14th pick in the Draft, so 2025 won’t be the year they find a rookie quarterback to carry them into the future. The answer will come in free agency, and Darnold is the top name available.
Russell Wilson didn’t pan out in the Steel City the way the team had hoped. Justin Fields was brought in and played well enough for them to want to kick the tires next season, but not without a backup plan. Darnold may not want to compete for a starting job, but Pittsburgh is built for a playoff run with the right passer. If the former USC Trojan is willing to swallow his pride, he could easily beat out Fields and be at the helm for multiple playoff runs, and possibly a Super Bowl run.
Myles Garrett has asked to be traded to a contender, and the team is fed up with Deshaun Watson. Jameis Winston played like, well, Jameis Winston last season and that never inspires confidence in a front office. Maybe the team feels the answer is the quarterback projected to them during much of the 2018 pre-draft process.
The only issue is, that that rotten smell in Cleveland isn’t low tide from the Great Lakes, it’s a rebuild. The team currently holds the second pick in the draft and is assured Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders, so bringing in a veteran to start a rebuild may not make much sense.
The Raiders seem all-in on a rookie quarterback and may be willing to pay a king’s ransom to move into the top two to get him. Not all plans come to fruition though, and if they aren’t able to swing a deal for a top pick in the draft, Sam Darnold might start to look pretty good in silver and black. Should he stay true to form, he could be the best quarterback they’ve had since Rich Gannon.
Tom Brady does not seem like the type of guy who wants to wait a decade to get to the playoffs, so Darnold makes sense for a win-now owner. The team still needs a lot of pieces around him if they want to win, especially in the AFC West, but locking in a competent quarterback would be a huge step in the right direction.
Both New York teams could be in play for Darnold, but he’s highly unlikely to return to the place that tried to ruin his career, and the Giants are going to look for a younger quarterback (Justin Fields if he becomes available, or possibly Anthony Richardson if they can’t swing a trade into the top two in the draft. He didn’t get a fair shake in Carolina, so he won’t go there, and there’s always the outside chance the Rams bring him in to replace an unhappy Matthew Stafford.
No matter where he ends up, it’s not likely Darnold will get rich on this next deal there.
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